Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#143
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.1#62
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#146
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 25.3% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 84.3% 89.4% 70.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 90.4% 80.7%
Conference Champion 29.0% 32.4% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 2.1%
First Four1.5% 1.2% 2.3%
First Round22.1% 24.8% 14.7%
Second Round2.8% 3.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 214   St. Peter's W 70-63 73%    
  Nov 15, 2024 6   @ Gonzaga L 69-88 4%    
  Nov 17, 2024 62   @ Washington L 73-84 17%    
  Nov 23, 2024 212   Quinnipiac W 81-74 73%    
  Nov 25, 2024 243   Merrimack W 74-66 76%    
  Nov 27, 2024 94   @ Saint Louis L 75-83 24%    
  Dec 01, 2024 304   @ Central Connecticut St. W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 07, 2024 116   @ Massachusetts L 72-77 34%    
  Dec 11, 2024 352   LIU Brooklyn W 85-68 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 313   Dartmouth W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 18, 2024 356   Stonehill W 82-64 94%    
  Dec 21, 2024 266   Boston University W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 259   @ Albany W 83-80 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 111   Vermont W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 343   NJIT W 80-64 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 169   @ Bryant L 79-81 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 253   Maine W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 305   New Hampshire W 82-70 84%    
  Jan 30, 2025 343   @ NJIT W 77-67 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 272   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 84-81 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 318   @ Binghamton W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 13, 2025 259   Albany W 86-77 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 305   @ New Hampshire W 79-73 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 272   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-78 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 111   @ Vermont L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 27, 2025 169   Bryant W 82-78 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 318   Binghamton W 79-66 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 253   @ Maine W 71-68 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.2 7.8 8.3 5.3 1.9 29.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.4 8.1 4.8 1.0 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.7 5.3 1.5 0.1 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.5 1.4 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.9 10.1 12.3 14.4 13.8 12.7 9.3 5.3 1.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
15-1 100.0% 5.3    5.0 0.3
14-2 89.1% 8.3    6.5 1.8 0.0
13-3 61.1% 7.8    4.5 3.0 0.3
12-4 30.7% 4.2    1.6 2.0 0.7 0.0
11-5 8.6% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 19.7 7.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.9% 63.1% 62.1% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6%
15-1 5.3% 55.3% 54.9% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.7%
14-2 9.3% 44.2% 44.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.2
13-3 12.7% 35.2% 35.2% 13.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.1 8.3
12-4 13.8% 26.6% 26.6% 14.4 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.4 10.2
11-5 14.4% 19.4% 19.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 11.6
10-6 12.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 10.6
9-7 10.1% 9.2% 9.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 9.1
8-8 7.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.4
7-9 5.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.1
6-10 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 3.3
5-11 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-12 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.8 5.0 6.0 4.8 3.3 77.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 8.3 8.3 16.7 16.7 41.7 8.3