Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.3#94
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.4% 3.2% 1.0%
#1 Seed 12.3% 16.0% 5.9%
Top 2 Seed 24.8% 31.3% 13.6%
Top 4 Seed 44.9% 53.7% 29.5%
Top 6 Seed 59.1% 68.0% 43.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.4% 91.3% 78.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.3% 79.1% 57.8%
Average Seed 5.0 4.5 6.0
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 99.3%
Conference Champion 68.4% 72.7% 60.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 2.2% 3.5%
First Round85.3% 90.3% 76.6%
Second Round67.8% 74.7% 55.7%
Sweet Sixteen42.8% 49.3% 31.5%
Elite Eight25.2% 30.0% 17.0%
Final Four14.3% 17.4% 8.9%
Championship Game7.7% 9.5% 4.5%
National Champion4.2% 5.4% 2.1%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 4
Quad 25 - 110 - 5
Quad 37 - 117 - 5
Quad 48 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   Baylor W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 10, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 83-71 87%    
  Nov 15, 2024 143   Umass Lowell W 88-69 96%    
  Nov 18, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 20, 2024 245   Long Beach St. W 93-69 98%    
  Nov 27, 2024 65   West Virginia W 81-73 77%    
  Dec 07, 2024 16   Kentucky W 85-82 61%    
  Dec 13, 2024 1   Connecticut L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 18, 2024 215   Nicholls St. W 86-63 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 268   Bucknell W 84-59 98%    
  Dec 28, 2024 23   UCLA W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 30, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine W 84-67 92%    
  Jan 02, 2025 271   Portland W 90-65 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 141   @ Loyola Marymount W 81-68 86%    
  Jan 08, 2025 282   San Diego W 92-66 98%    
  Jan 11, 2025 91   Washington St. W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 16, 2025 123   @ Oregon St. W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 98   Santa Clara W 86-72 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   @ Portland W 87-68 94%    
  Jan 28, 2025 123   Oregon St. W 81-64 93%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   @ St. Mary's W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 141   Loyola Marymount W 84-65 94%    
  Feb 08, 2025 314   @ Pacific W 88-66 96%    
  Feb 13, 2025 82   San Francisco W 82-69 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 87-64 97%    
  Feb 19, 2025 91   @ Washington St. W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   St. Mary's W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 98   @ Santa Clara W 83-75 75%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   @ San Francisco W 79-72 70%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 10.7 18.6 21.1 14.0 68.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.5 5.7 2.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.4 0.2 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.5 7.1 11.4 16.6 20.8 21.1 14.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 14.0    14.0
17-1 100.0% 21.1    20.0 1.1
16-2 89.7% 18.6    14.7 3.9 0.1
15-3 64.4% 10.7    5.9 4.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 30.3% 3.5    1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.4% 68.4 55.8 11.0 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 14.0% 99.9% 80.0% 19.9% 1.8 7.0 4.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
17-1 21.1% 99.6% 69.5% 30.1% 2.9 4.5 5.8 4.3 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
16-2 20.8% 97.6% 59.4% 38.2% 4.8 0.7 2.2 3.6 4.1 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 94.1%
15-3 16.6% 92.1% 49.6% 42.5% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.3 84.4%
14-4 11.4% 78.9% 39.9% 39.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 64.9%
13-5 7.1% 60.9% 30.0% 30.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 44.1%
12-6 4.5% 40.3% 19.7% 20.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 25.7%
11-7 2.3% 22.8% 12.1% 10.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 12.2%
10-8 1.3% 13.1% 8.7% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.8%
9-9 0.6% 6.8% 5.1% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8%
8-10 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.4% 54.4% 32.0% 5.0 12.3 12.6 10.3 9.8 7.7 6.4 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.6 70.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 23.9 1.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 68.6 25.4 4.1 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 50.8 40.5 4.5 4.1