Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.4#177
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.8% 4.0% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 9.1% 9.4% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 21.7% 22.5% 6.9%
Top 6 Seed 35.2% 36.3% 13.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.5% 61.9% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.8% 59.2% 30.9%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.1
.500 or above 73.4% 74.9% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.9% 60.0% 37.4%
Conference Champion 7.5% 7.7% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 4.5% 12.6%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 4.2%
First Round57.9% 59.3% 30.3%
Second Round39.4% 40.5% 18.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.7% 20.3% 7.9%
Elite Eight9.1% 9.4% 2.9%
Final Four4.1% 4.3% 0.9%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.2%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 13
Quad 43 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 213   Cleveland St. W 81-64 95%    
  Nov 10, 2024 41   Wake Forest W 75-74 53%    
  Nov 15, 2024 53   TCU W 78-73 68%    
  Nov 18, 2024 233   Miami (OH) W 80-62 95%    
  Nov 21, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 80-62 94%    
  Nov 25, 2024 74   Virginia Tech W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 03, 2024 44   @ Wisconsin L 70-72 45%    
  Dec 07, 2024 45   Iowa W 83-78 65%    
  Dec 10, 2024 15   Arkansas L 75-77 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 55   Oklahoma W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 22, 2024 180   Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-68 91%    
  Dec 29, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 86-75 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 46   @ USC L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 07, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 12, 2025 62   Washington W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 19, 2025 60   Northwestern W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 27, 2025 67   Penn St. W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 29   @ Rutgers L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 05, 2025 34   Oregon W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 11, 2025 12   Purdue L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 16, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 21, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 27, 2025 29   Rutgers W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 02, 2025 22   Illinois W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 05, 2025 38   Maryland W 70-66 62%    
  Mar 09, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 67-71 38%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.3 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.4 0.8 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.9 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.3 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.8 7.2 8.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 9.5 8.4 7.3 5.2 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 93.5% 1.2    1.0 0.1 0.0
17-3 81.0% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 54.1% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 25.0% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 4.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 55.5% 44.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.4 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.2 0.4 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.3% 99.9% 13.5% 86.4% 4.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 8.4% 99.3% 10.3% 89.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 9.5% 96.5% 5.2% 91.3% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.3%
11-9 10.4% 89.4% 3.4% 86.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 89.0%
10-10 10.2% 72.2% 1.8% 70.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.8 71.7%
9-11 9.9% 42.2% 0.9% 41.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.7 41.6%
8-12 8.7% 16.9% 0.5% 16.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 7.2 16.5%
7-13 7.2% 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 3.1%
6-14 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.3%
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16 2.8% 2.8
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 60.5% 6.4% 54.1% 5.9 3.8 5.3 6.4 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.1 5.2 4.6 3.9 4.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 39.5 57.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.2 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0