Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#264
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.8% 4.5% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 6.9% 10.8% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 17.1% 25.1% 10.5%
Top 6 Seed 28.4% 39.7% 19.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.8% 69.1% 44.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.9% 66.2% 42.3%
Average Seed 6.3 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 74.5% 86.1% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 70.6% 53.2%
Conference Champion 8.0% 11.3% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 2.5% 6.3%
First Four4.2% 3.9% 4.5%
First Round53.8% 67.3% 42.5%
Second Round36.2% 47.2% 27.1%
Sweet Sixteen17.5% 24.1% 11.9%
Elite Eight8.3% 11.8% 5.4%
Final Four3.8% 5.6% 2.2%
Championship Game1.6% 2.5% 0.9%
National Champion0.7% 1.1% 0.4%

Next Game: Texas (Neutral) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 17   Texas L 70-71 45%    
  Nov 11, 2024 198   Youngstown St. W 80-64 93%    
  Nov 15, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 68-72 36%    
  Nov 19, 2024 228   Evansville W 80-62 95%    
  Nov 22, 2024 301   Campbell W 80-58 97%    
  Nov 25, 2024 310   Green Bay W 78-55 98%    
  Nov 29, 2024 52   Pittsburgh W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 04, 2024 38   @ Maryland L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 29   Rutgers W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 14, 2024 10   Auburn L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 17, 2024 242   Valparaiso W 81-62 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 16   Kentucky L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 29, 2024 132   Indiana St. W 81-68 86%    
  Jan 03, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 06, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 34   Oregon W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 44   @ Wisconsin L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 17, 2025 20   Indiana W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 68-75 29%    
  Jan 27, 2025 45   Iowa W 81-76 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 67   @ Penn St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 02, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 06, 2025 38   Maryland W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 12, 2025 62   Washington W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 16, 2025 30   Michigan W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 60   Northwestern W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 23, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 46   @ USC L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 04, 2025 51   Nebraska W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.4 1.4 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.4 0.0 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.3 7.0 8.4 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.2 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.7% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 93.4% 1.2    1.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.6% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 54.4% 2.2    1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.5% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 61.4% 38.6% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.4% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 2.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.1% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.9 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.8% 99.8% 19.4% 80.4% 3.9 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 7.4% 99.3% 12.7% 86.7% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 8.7% 97.1% 9.2% 87.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
12-8 10.2% 90.6% 4.4% 86.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 90.2%
11-9 10.2% 75.7% 2.8% 72.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 74.9%
10-10 10.2% 53.5% 1.5% 52.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.8 52.8%
9-11 9.7% 26.1% 0.7% 25.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 25.5%
8-12 8.4% 7.6% 0.5% 7.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.8 7.1%
7-13 7.0% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 1.1%
6-14 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 5.3 0.0%
5-15 3.8% 3.8
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 55.8% 6.2% 49.6% 6.3 2.8 4.1 5.2 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.2 5.4 4.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 44.2 52.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.6 10.4