Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#210
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 6.1% 6.5% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 15.9% 16.9% 3.9%
Top 6 Seed 27.1% 28.6% 9.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.6% 57.6% 31.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.1% 55.1% 30.0%
Average Seed 6.5 6.4 7.8
.500 or above 73.5% 75.8% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.7% 59.4% 36.9%
Conference Champion 6.8% 7.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 5.1% 12.9%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 5.1%
First Round53.2% 55.3% 28.6%
Second Round34.4% 36.0% 16.3%
Sweet Sixteen16.0% 16.8% 6.0%
Elite Eight7.3% 7.7% 2.6%
Final Four3.2% 3.3% 1.1%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 9
Quad 25 - 311 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 78-63 92%    
  Nov 08, 2024 190   Montana W 79-64 92%    
  Nov 12, 2024 271   Portland W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 17, 2024 129   Troy W 79-67 86%    
  Nov 21, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. W 72-66 69%    
  Nov 26, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 70-72 44%    
  Nov 27, 2024 47   San Diego St. W 68-67 54%    
  Nov 30, 2024 13   Creighton L 70-73 38%    
  Dec 04, 2024 46   @ USC L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 08, 2024 23   UCLA W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 15, 2024 164   Stephen F. Austin W 79-65 89%    
  Dec 21, 2024 93   Stanford W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 29, 2024 179   Weber St. W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 02, 2025 22   Illinois W 76-74 55%    
  Jan 05, 2025 38   Maryland W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 12, 2025 67   @ Penn St. L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 12   Purdue L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 21, 2025 62   Washington W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 02, 2025 51   Nebraska W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 05, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 24   @ Michigan St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 11, 2025 60   Northwestern W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 16, 2025 29   Rutgers W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 45   @ Iowa L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 44   @ Wisconsin L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 46   USC W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 20   Indiana W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 09, 2025 62   @ Washington L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.4 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.3 5.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.2 4.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.8 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.0 7.5 8.6 9.8 10.4 10.0 9.5 8.4 6.9 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.3% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 96.1% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 77.8% 1.7    1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 52.0% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 22.8% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.5% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.8 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.1% 99.9% 15.5% 84.4% 3.8 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 6.9% 99.7% 13.5% 86.2% 4.9 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 8.4% 98.4% 7.8% 90.6% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.3%
12-8 9.5% 93.8% 4.4% 89.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.6 93.5%
11-9 10.0% 81.8% 3.0% 78.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.8 81.2%
10-10 10.4% 62.3% 1.1% 61.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.9 61.8%
9-11 9.8% 33.1% 0.6% 32.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.6 32.7%
8-12 8.6% 11.5% 0.2% 11.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.6 11.3%
7-13 7.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 1.5%
6-14 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.1%
5-15 4.4% 4.4
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.6% 5.4% 50.2% 6.5 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.6 0.9 0.0 44.4 53.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.3 16.7