Preseason Rankings
USC
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#46
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#137
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 3.7% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 10.7% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 18.0% 19.7% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.9% 46.8% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.8% 44.6% 22.5%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 7.9
.500 or above 76.4% 80.0% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 51.1% 30.6%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 7.1% 15.3%
First Four4.5% 4.6% 3.7%
First Round41.5% 44.4% 21.2%
Second Round25.6% 27.6% 11.8%
Sweet Sixteen10.9% 11.8% 4.3%
Elite Eight4.6% 5.0% 1.6%
Final Four1.8% 2.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 24 - 38 - 11
Quad 34 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 147   Chattanooga W 80-68 87%    
  Nov 07, 2024 315   Idaho St. W 79-58 97%    
  Nov 13, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 83-71 87%    
  Nov 17, 2024 109   California W 78-69 80%    
  Nov 20, 2024 160   San Jose St. W 78-65 87%    
  Nov 24, 2024 273   Grambling St. W 77-59 95%    
  Nov 28, 2024 35   St. Mary's L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 04, 2024 34   Oregon W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 07, 2024 62   @ Washington L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 15, 2024 149   Montana St. W 80-68 85%    
  Dec 18, 2024 239   Cal St. Northridge W 86-69 93%    
  Dec 22, 2024 248   Southern W 79-62 93%    
  Jan 04, 2025 30   Michigan W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 08, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 74-80 32%    
  Jan 14, 2025 45   Iowa W 82-79 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 22, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 27, 2025 23   UCLA W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 60   @ Northwestern L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 07, 2025 12   @ Purdue L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 11, 2025 67   Penn St. W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 76   Minnesota W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 20, 2025 38   @ Maryland L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 23, 2025 29   @ Rutgers L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 31   Ohio St. W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 71-75 36%    
  Mar 05, 2025 62   Washington W 79-75 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 23   @ UCLA L 65-70 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.2 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 2.3 0.2 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.8 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.4 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.2 5.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 5.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.8 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.8 7.6 8.8 10.0 10.4 10.1 9.5 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 79.2% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 48.5% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 25.5% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 2.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.4% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 3.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.8% 99.9% 15.2% 84.7% 4.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.2% 99.5% 10.4% 89.2% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 6.9% 96.8% 8.1% 88.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.5%
12-8 8.4% 90.5% 3.7% 86.8% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.8 90.1%
11-9 9.5% 75.4% 2.3% 73.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.3 74.8%
10-10 10.1% 54.4% 1.1% 53.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.2 4.6 53.8%
9-11 10.4% 25.0% 0.6% 24.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 24.5%
8-12 10.0% 6.6% 0.2% 6.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.3 6.4%
7-13 8.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.7%
6-14 7.6% 7.6
5-15 5.8% 5.8
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 43.9% 3.6% 40.3% 7.0 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 0.8 0.0 56.1 41.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0