Preseason Rankings
Maryland
Big Ten
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#38
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.0% 5.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 13.3% 13.4% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 23.5% 23.7% 7.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.3% 52.7% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.7% 50.1% 20.6%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.9
.500 or above 83.2% 83.6% 49.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 57.8% 29.7%
Conference Champion 6.5% 6.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 5.6% 14.1%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 4.0%
First Round50.5% 50.8% 19.1%
Second Round32.3% 32.6% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen14.5% 14.7% 3.7%
Elite Eight6.6% 6.6% 1.5%
Final Four2.9% 2.9% 0.8%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.6%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 33 - 113 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 331   Manhattan W 79-55 99%    
  Nov 08, 2024 270   Mount St. Mary's W 77-58 96%    
  Nov 11, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 79-52 99%    
  Nov 15, 2024 26   Marquette W 70-68 57%    
  Nov 19, 2024 297   Canisius W 76-55 97%    
  Nov 24, 2024 37   Villanova L 62-63 50%    
  Nov 27, 2024 268   Bucknell W 73-54 95%    
  Dec 01, 2024 324   Alcorn St. W 79-56 98%    
  Dec 04, 2024 31   Ohio St. W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 08, 2024 12   @ Purdue L 64-71 27%    
  Dec 17, 2024 354   St. Francis (PA) W 79-51 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 56   Syracuse W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 28, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-49 99%    
  Jan 02, 2025 62   @ Washington L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 05, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 10, 2025 23   UCLA W 64-62 55%    
  Jan 13, 2025 76   Minnesota W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 16, 2025 60   @ Northwestern L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 19, 2025 51   Nebraska W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 23, 2025 22   @ Illinois L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 26, 2025 20   @ Indiana L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 44   Wisconsin W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 31   @ Ohio St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 09, 2025 29   Rutgers W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 51   @ Nebraska L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 16, 2025 45   Iowa W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 46   USC W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 26, 2025 24   Michigan St. W 65-63 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 67   @ Penn St. L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 05, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 66-70 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   Northwestern W 66-61 66%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.5 1.2 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.0 1.9 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.5 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.3 5.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.4 8.8 9.8 10.5 10.1 9.9 8.2 6.9 4.9 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.3% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
17-3 78.1% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 56.3% 2.0    1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 22.9% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 2.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.5% 99.9% 21.9% 78.0% 3.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 4.9% 99.9% 16.5% 83.4% 4.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 6.9% 99.3% 13.2% 86.0% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 8.2% 96.8% 8.5% 88.2% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.5%
12-8 9.9% 89.2% 4.3% 85.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 88.8%
11-9 10.1% 75.3% 2.3% 73.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 2.5 74.7%
10-10 10.5% 54.9% 1.6% 53.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 54.2%
9-11 9.8% 27.2% 0.6% 26.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.2 7.1 26.8%
8-12 8.8% 8.0% 0.4% 7.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 7.7%
7-13 7.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.9%
6-14 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0%
5-15 4.5% 4.5
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 52.3% 5.2% 47.1% 6.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 6.1 6.6 6.0 5.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 47.7 49.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.7 27.3