IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.4	#324
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.6	#239
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#279

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.0	#351

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.0%	11.9%	5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.4	15.8

.500 or above	13.6%	40.3%	12.8%
.500 or above in Conference	62.0%	82.5%	61.4%
Conference Champion	7.3%	16.5%	7.1%
Last Place in Conference	3.7%	0.6%	3.8%

First Four	4.2%	5.4%	4.1%
First Round	3.9%	9.4%	3.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 8	11 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	77	@ Utah	L	64-84	3%
Nov 06, 2024	81	@ Utah St.	L	63-83	3%
Nov 11, 2024	175	@ Tulane	L	72-84	14%
Nov 19, 2024	53	@ TCU	L	63-85	2%
Nov 22, 2024	62	@ Washington	L	65-86	3%
Nov 24, 2024	183	@ UC Riverside	L	65-77	16%
Nov 29, 2024	223	@ South Alabama	L	68-77	21%
Dec 01, 2024	38	@ Maryland	L	56-79	2%
Dec 04, 2024	105	@ Wichita St.	L	63-80	7%
Dec 07, 2024	55	@ Oklahoma	L	60-82	3%
Dec 16, 2024	211	@ Rice	L	66-76	20%
Dec 22, 2024	88	@ UAB	L	64-83	5%
Jan 04, 2025	319	Jackson St.	W	73-71	58%
Jan 11, 2025	338	Alabama A&M	W	75-70	65%
Jan 13, 2025	293	Alabama St.	W	69-68	51%
Jan 18, 2025	261	@ Texas Southern	L	67-74	26%
Jan 20, 2025	344	@ Prairie View	L	74-75	48%
Jan 25, 2025	353	Florida A&M	W	74-67	71%
Jan 27, 2025	298	Bethune-Cookman	W	74-73	52%
Feb 01, 2025	248	@ Southern	L	65-73	24%
Feb 03, 2025	273	@ Grambling St.	L	64-71	28%
Feb 08, 2025	358	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	81-73	74%
Feb 10, 2025	364	Mississippi Valley	W	73-59	87%
Feb 15, 2025	298	@ Bethune-Cookman	L	71-76	33%
Feb 17, 2025	353	@ Florida A&M	W	71-70	53%
Feb 22, 2025	319	@ Jackson St.	L	70-74	38%
Mar 01, 2025	344	Prairie View	W	77-72	67%
Mar 03, 2025	261	Texas Southern	L	70-71	45%
Mar 06, 2025	364	@ Mississippi Valley	W	70-62	73%
Mar 08, 2025	358	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	78-76	56%
Projected Record						10 - 20	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.9	2.1	1.5	0.6	0.1		7.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.9	3.3	2.6	1.0	0.2	0.0			9.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.5	4.2	2.6	0.6	0.1					10.3	3rd
4th										0.3	2.7	4.7	2.7	0.5	0.0						10.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.3	4.9	2.9	0.5	0.0							11.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.8	5.1	3.2	0.5	0.0								10.8	6th
7th							0.1	1.5	4.5	3.4	0.5	0.0									10.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.3	3.9	3.3	0.7	0.0										9.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	1.1	3.3	2.9	0.7	0.0											8.2	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.1	2.4	2.2	0.6	0.0												6.5	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.2	0.4	0.0													4.3	11th
12th	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0														2.0	12th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.6	3.4	5.0	7.3	9.1	10.6	11.8	11.7	11.1	9.5	7.3	5.1	3.1	1.6	0.6	0.1			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.2%	0.6		0.6	0.0
16-2	90.2%	1.5		1.2	0.2	0.0
15-3	68.2%	2.1		1.3	0.8	0.1	0.0
14-4	36.4%	1.9		0.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.8%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.0%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.3%	7.3		4.1	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		51.7%	51.7%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-1	0.6%		38.6%	38.6%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4
16-2	1.6%		32.6%	32.6%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.1
15-3	3.1%		23.8%	23.8%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	2.4
14-4	5.1%		19.0%	19.0%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	4.1
13-5	7.3%		13.4%	13.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.9	6.3
12-6	9.5%		8.9%	8.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.8	8.6
11-7	11.1%		6.0%	6.0%		16.0																0.0	0.7	10.4
10-8	11.7%		4.3%	4.3%		16.0																	0.5	11.2
9-9	11.8%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																	0.3	11.5
8-10	10.6%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
7-11	9.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
6-12	7.3%																							7.3
5-13	5.0%																							5.0
4-14	3.4%																							3.4
3-15	1.6%																							1.6
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		6.0%	6.0%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	5.1	94.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%