Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#293
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#332
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 18.7% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 45.1% 72.1% 43.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 88.8% 75.8%
Conference Champion 15.2% 26.0% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 1.6%
First Four7.1% 7.5% 7.1%
First Round8.1% 15.1% 7.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 414 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 95   @ UNLV L 59-75 7%    
  Nov 10, 2024 54   @ LSU L 62-81 4%    
  Nov 22, 2024 302   Nebraska Omaha W 69-68 52%    
  Nov 23, 2024 283   Lamar L 69-70 47%    
  Nov 24, 2024 131   @ Akron L 60-72 15%    
  Nov 27, 2024 27   @ Cincinnati L 57-79 3%    
  Dec 03, 2024 78   @ SMU L 61-78 7%    
  Dec 05, 2024 236   @ Southern Miss L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 11, 2024 323   Tennessee Martin W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 19, 2024 251   Norfolk St. L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 20, 2024 340   Delaware St. W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 30, 2024 58   @ Missouri L 60-79 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 71-55 91%    
  Jan 06, 2025 358   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-68 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 319   @ Jackson St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 13, 2025 324   @ Alcorn St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 338   @ Alabama A&M W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 344   Prairie View W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 27, 2025 261   Texas Southern W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 298   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 03, 2025 353   @ Florida A&M W 69-65 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 273   Grambling St. W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 10, 2025 248   Southern W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 358   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-71 64%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 68-58 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 353   Florida A&M W 72-62 78%    
  Feb 24, 2025 298   Bethune-Cookman W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   Alabama A&M W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 06, 2025 248   @ Southern L 63-69 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 273   @ Grambling St. L 62-66 36%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.5 3.3 1.7 0.5 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 3.8 0.9 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.1 6.2 7.8 10.1 11.0 12.0 11.9 10.8 8.7 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 1.7    1.7 0.1
16-2 92.1% 3.3    2.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 72.0% 4.5    2.9 1.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.9% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
13-5 13.0% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 9.6 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 56.8% 56.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.7% 45.9% 45.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.9
16-2 3.6% 37.3% 37.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.3
15-3 6.3% 27.2% 27.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.6
14-4 8.7% 23.3% 23.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.7
13-5 10.8% 16.2% 16.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 9.1
12-6 11.9% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 10.4
11-7 12.0% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0 11.0
10-8 11.0% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.7 10.4
9-9 10.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 9.7
8-10 7.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.7
7-11 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 2.6% 2.6
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 9.0 88.4 0.0%