Preseason Rankings
Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#323
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.8#9
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#340
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 10.4% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 28.2% 52.0% 23.8%
.500 or above in Conference 48.3% 66.0% 45.0%
Conference Champion 6.5% 12.4% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 5.6% 12.9%
First Four3.7% 4.8% 3.5%
First Round4.0% 8.1% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 411 - 1112 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 193   @ Illinois St. L 67-78 15%    
  Nov 11, 2024 231   @ North Alabama L 75-84 20%    
  Nov 16, 2024 195   @ Longwood L 70-81 16%    
  Nov 21, 2024 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 73-82 20%    
  Nov 22, 2024 335   Le Moyne W 77-76 55%    
  Nov 27, 2024 14   @ Tennessee L 64-91 1%    
  Dec 03, 2024 280   @ Charleston Southern L 73-80 28%    
  Dec 11, 2024 293   @ Alabama St. L 71-77 31%    
  Dec 19, 2024 224   @ Morehead St. L 67-76 21%    
  Dec 21, 2024 328   @ Southern Indiana L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 02, 2025 267   Arkansas Little Rock L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 327   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 09, 2025 294   @ Western Illinois L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 326   Eastern Illinois W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 316   SIU Edwardsville W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 309   @ Tennessee St. L 75-80 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 336   Tennessee Tech W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 327   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 06, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   Western Illinois W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 316   @ SIU Edwardsville L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 326   @ Eastern Illinois L 73-76 42%    
  Feb 18, 2025 309   Tennessee St. W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 336   @ Tennessee Tech L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 328   Southern Indiana W 81-77 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 224   Morehead St. L 70-73 40%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.9 1.2 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.7 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 6.1 7.6 8.7 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.3 8.1 6.7 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 98.7% 0.7    0.7 0.1
17-3 84.9% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 67.5% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 38.7% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 74.2% 74.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 55.6% 55.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.8% 43.6% 43.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
17-3 1.5% 36.8% 36.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0
16-4 2.4% 32.6% 32.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6
15-5 3.7% 26.5% 26.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7
14-6 5.3% 18.3% 18.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.3
13-7 6.7% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.9
12-8 8.1% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 7.5
11-9 9.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.9
10-10 10.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.1
9-11 10.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.3
8-12 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
7-13 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
6-14 7.6% 7.6
5-15 6.1% 6.1
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.8 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%