Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
248 Southern 20.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 6 -4.1      -4.7 310 +0.6 146 69.0 154 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Texas Southern 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 12 - 6 -4.9      -4.0 298 -0.9 197 69.1 153 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Grambling St. 15.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 7 -5.4      -4.2 302 -1.2 209 63.0 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
293 Alabama St. 11.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 7 -6.7      -5.7 332 -1.0 201 68.0 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Bethune-Cookman 10.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 8 -7.0      -3.6 283 -3.4 288 72.5 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
319 Jackson St. 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 10 - 8 -8.6      -5.1 321 -3.6 295 70.7 107 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 Alcorn St. 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 9 - 9 -9.4      -3.4 279 -6.0 351 66.6 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Alabama A&M 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -10.9      -7.4 351 -3.6 298 74.6 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 Prairie View 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 10 -11.7      -6.5 346 -5.1 339 75.3 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
353 Florida A&M 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 20 7 - 11 -13.2      -8.6 357 -4.6 327 69.7 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -14.2      -6.2 342 -8.0 363 77.4 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
364 Mississippi Valley 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 24 4 - 14 -19.9      -12.8 364 -7.1 361 62.9 328 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 3.6 27.3 17.3 13.5 10.6 8.6 7.0 5.3 4.1 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.3
Texas Southern 3.8 24.2 17.2 13.5 11.4 9.3 7.4 5.9 4.3 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.4
Grambling St. 4.2 19.9 15.4 13.0 11.3 9.7 8.1 7.1 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.8 0.6
Alabama St. 4.6 15.2 14.3 13.4 11.8 10.4 9.2 8.0 6.4 5.0 3.5 2.0 0.8
Bethune-Cookman 5.1 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.0 11.1 9.8 8.9 7.9 6.8 5.0 3.1 1.1
Jackson St. 5.3 9.7 11.0 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.6 9.4 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.5 1.5
Alcorn St. 5.7 7.3 9.3 10.3 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.1 9.3 8.2 6.5 4.3 2.0
Alabama A&M 6.7 4.4 6.1 7.1 8.2 9.6 9.9 10.9 11.4 10.9 9.7 7.7 4.1
Prairie View 7.3 3.0 4.6 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.5 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.0 9.7 5.2
Florida A&M 8.3 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.1 8.9 11.1 13.5 16.0 17.1 9.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.4 1.2 2.4 3.4 4.3 6.0 7.4 8.9 10.9 13.3 15.1 16.2 11.0
Mississippi Valley 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 3.0 4.6 7.3 12.4 21.7 46.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.4 7.2 9.2 10.9 11.9 12.3 11.7 10.0 7.2 4.1 1.4
Texas Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 7.8 9.7 11.6 12.2 12.3 11.4 9.2 6.3 3.4 1.0
Grambling St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.3 7.3 8.6 10.3 11.6 11.8 11.2 9.7 7.8 4.8 2.7 0.8
Alabama St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.1 6.2 7.8 10.1 11.0 12.0 11.9 10.8 8.7 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.5
Bethune-Cookman 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.7 5.7 7.5 9.5 10.8 11.5 11.8 10.7 9.0 6.8 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.3
Jackson St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 5.9 8.0 9.9 11.5 11.9 11.5 10.2 8.4 6.4 4.1 2.3 0.8 0.2
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.4 5.0 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.8 11.7 11.1 9.5 7.3 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
Alabama A&M 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.6 7.9 10.0 11.1 11.7 11.2 10.6 8.5 6.7 4.8 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
Prairie View 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.5 7.1 9.5 11.2 11.6 11.9 11.1 9.3 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.6 2.6 5.4 8.4 10.8 12.3 12.5 11.9 10.1 8.5 6.3 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6 - 12 0.8 2.7 5.5 8.5 10.7 12.2 12.2 11.5 10.0 8.7 6.3 4.5 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 4 - 14 8.2 14.8 16.9 16.0 13.7 10.3 7.5 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 27.3% 18.8 6.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 24.2% 16.1 6.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 19.9% 13.0 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 15.2% 9.6 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 11.6% 7.0 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 9.7% 5.5 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 7.3% 4.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 4.4% 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.9 11.4 79.6 0.0%
Texas Southern 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 12.4 82.7 0.0%
Grambling St. 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 11.2 84.1 0.0%
Alabama St. 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 9.0 88.4 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 8.2 89.1 0.0%
Jackson St. 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.1 92.6 0.0%
Alcorn St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 5.1 94.0 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.6 96.0 0.0%
Prairie View 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.8 96.8 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 98.1 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 20.4% 7.5% 16.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 17.3% 9.1% 13.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 15.9% 7.9% 12.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 11.6% 7.1% 8.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 10.9% 6.2% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 7.4% 5.0% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 6.0% 4.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 3.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 72.4% 0.7 27.6 72.4 0.0
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0