Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#84
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#276
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.2% 4.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 22.2% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.1% 11.9% 2.7%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 10.4
.500 or above 81.4% 83.5% 57.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 75.9% 56.7%
Conference Champion 13.3% 13.9% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.3% 3.5%
First Four3.0% 3.2% 1.2%
First Round19.6% 20.6% 7.6%
Second Round9.3% 9.9% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 92.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 11
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 263   North Dakota W 76-61 92%    
  Nov 08, 2024 309   Tennessee St. W 78-60 95%    
  Nov 12, 2024 317   Denver W 83-64 95%    
  Nov 16, 2024 40   Mississippi L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 22, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 74-63 83%    
  Nov 28, 2024 62   Washington L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 04, 2024 141   Loyola Marymount W 72-63 78%    
  Dec 07, 2024 79   @ Colorado L 67-70 38%    
  Dec 14, 2024 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-66 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 269   Radford W 72-57 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 75   @ Nevada L 66-70 38%    
  Dec 28, 2024 70   New Mexico W 75-73 56%    
  Dec 31, 2024 160   @ San Jose St. W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 07, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 73-59 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 95   UNLV W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 14, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 63   Boise St. W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 250   @ Fresno St. W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 28, 2025 229   Air Force W 71-58 87%    
  Feb 05, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 47   San Diego St. W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 177   Wyoming W 74-63 81%    
  Feb 18, 2025 75   Nevada W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 95   @ UNLV L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 229   @ Air Force W 68-61 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 81   Utah St. W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 73-63 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 65-70 35%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.4 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.3 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 4.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.7 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.2 3.9 1.1 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.7 6.3 7.8 9.6 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.0 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 96.5% 2.3    2.1 0.2
17-3 81.6% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 55.0% 3.4    1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 24.4% 2.0    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 8.6 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.2% 40.8% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 99.3% 51.1% 48.2% 4.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
18-2 2.3% 93.8% 42.0% 51.8% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.3%
17-3 4.1% 82.8% 33.3% 49.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 74.2%
16-4 6.2% 64.0% 27.7% 36.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.2 50.2%
15-5 8.0% 43.9% 20.7% 23.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.5 29.2%
14-6 10.0% 27.5% 16.2% 11.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 7.2 13.5%
13-7 10.9% 16.0% 11.5% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 9.1 5.1%
12-8 11.1% 8.8% 7.4% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.2 1.5%
11-9 10.7% 5.3% 5.1% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.2%
10-10 9.6% 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0%
9-11 7.8% 1.9% 1.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
8-12 6.3% 1.0% 1.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 4.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
6-14 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.1% 11.3% 9.8% 9.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.1 5.6 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 78.9 11.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 35.0 45.6 19.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 20.0 40.0 40.0