Preseason Rankings
North Dakota
Summit League
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#263
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#227
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 13.3% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 30.4% 58.5% 28.0%
.500 or above in Conference 51.1% 69.9% 49.5%
Conference Champion 9.6% 18.3% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 5.8% 14.5%
First Four2.1% 1.6% 2.2%
First Round7.0% 12.8% 6.5%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 712 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 84   @ Colorado St. L 61-76 8%    
  Nov 09, 2024 232   @ Texas San Antonio L 74-78 34%    
  Nov 14, 2024 151   Utah Valley L 68-70 42%    
  Nov 19, 2024 66   @ Notre Dame L 59-75 7%    
  Nov 22, 2024 141   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-74 21%    
  Nov 26, 2024 298   Bethune-Cookman W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 04, 2024 262   @ Eastern Washington L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 179   Weber St. L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 11, 2024 151   @ Utah Valley L 65-73 24%    
  Dec 15, 2024 232   Texas San Antonio W 77-75 55%    
  Dec 18, 2024 5   Alabama L 70-90 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 302   Nebraska Omaha W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 201   St. Thomas W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 317   @ Denver W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 225   @ Oral Roberts L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 16, 2025 178   @ South Dakota St. L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 205   UMKC W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 274   South Dakota W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 234   @ North Dakota St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 178   South Dakota St. L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 302   @ Nebraska Omaha L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 205   @ UMKC L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 317   Denver W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 225   Oral Roberts W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 234   North Dakota St. W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 201   @ St. Thomas L 64-70 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 274   @ South Dakota L 73-76 42%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.6 1.7 0.2 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.4 1.4 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.6 5.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.5 1.3 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.0 3.5 1.0 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 8.7 9th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.8 7.3 9.4 11.2 11.9 12.3 11.2 9.5 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-2 96.1% 1.6    1.4 0.1 0.0
13-3 81.2% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.0
12-4 52.9% 2.7    1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 20.3% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
10-6 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 61.4% 61.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.7% 46.2% 46.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-2 1.6% 37.0% 37.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-3 3.2% 29.3% 29.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.2
12-4 5.2% 22.6% 22.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 4.0
11-5 7.3% 17.9% 17.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 6.0
10-6 9.5% 11.1% 11.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 8.5
9-7 11.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.3
8-8 12.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.5
7-9 11.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.5
6-10 11.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.0
5-11 9.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.3
4-12 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-13 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-14 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%