Preseason Rankings
Samford
Southern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#138
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.2#7
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#215
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 22.3% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.9 13.7
.500 or above 80.9% 90.5% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 88.3% 77.5%
Conference Champion 23.8% 30.1% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round17.8% 22.1% 14.2%
Second Round2.7% 3.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Away) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 172   @ Cornell L 86-87 46%    
  Nov 15, 2024 231   @ North Alabama W 82-80 57%    
  Nov 17, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 82-73 80%    
  Nov 19, 2024 24   @ Michigan St. L 68-82 11%    
  Nov 26, 2024 234   North Dakota St. W 82-74 76%    
  Nov 27, 2024 151   Utah Valley W 79-75 64%    
  Nov 29, 2024 351   West Georgia W 88-71 93%    
  Dec 05, 2024 307   @ South Carolina St. W 83-77 70%    
  Dec 08, 2024 281   Austin Peay W 81-71 81%    
  Dec 18, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 77-95 7%    
  Dec 21, 2024 338   @ Alabama A&M W 85-76 79%    
  Jan 01, 2025 325   The Citadel W 83-69 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 238   @ Western Carolina W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 361   VMI W 97-77 96%    
  Jan 11, 2025 188   UNC Greensboro W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 208   @ Mercer W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 170   East Tennessee St. W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 147   @ Chattanooga L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 153   Wofford W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 165   @ Furman L 80-82 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 208   Mercer W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 170   @ East Tennessee St. L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 147   Chattanooga W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 153   @ Wofford L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 165   Furman W 83-79 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 238   Western Carolina W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 27, 2025 361   @ VMI W 94-80 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 188   @ UNC Greensboro L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.4 6.6 5.2 2.7 0.8 23.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.4 4.6 1.6 0.2 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.3 6.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.0 5.1 1.9 0.2 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.3 1.0 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.6 6.6 8.6 10.3 11.6 12.4 11.9 10.5 8.2 5.4 2.7 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.1
16-2 96.3% 5.2    4.7 0.5
15-3 80.3% 6.6    4.7 1.8 0.1
14-4 51.8% 5.4    2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.8% 23.8 16.2 6.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 69.3% 63.4% 6.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 16.3%
17-1 2.7% 55.6% 53.6% 2.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 4.4%
16-2 5.4% 45.3% 45.0% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.6%
15-3 8.2% 38.1% 38.1% 12.9 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.1
14-4 10.5% 28.1% 28.1% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.5
13-5 11.9% 21.3% 21.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 9.3
12-6 12.4% 15.8% 15.8% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 10.5
11-7 11.6% 10.8% 10.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 10.4
10-8 10.3% 7.5% 7.5% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.5
9-9 8.6% 4.9% 4.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.1
8-10 6.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.3
7-11 4.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.5
6-12 3.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.0
5-13 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.0% 17.9% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.7 5.1 4.3 2.6 1.0 82.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 29.2 31.3 10.4 18.8 10.4