Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#11
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.5#15
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.0% 4.0% 1.9%
#1 Seed 15.5% 15.6% 3.6%
Top 2 Seed 29.9% 30.1% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 52.2% 52.4% 21.5%
Top 6 Seed 66.9% 67.1% 34.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.5% 84.7% 55.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.5% 82.7% 53.4%
Average Seed 4.2 4.2 5.9
.500 or above 90.8% 91.0% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 81.0% 58.1%
Conference Champion 14.0% 14.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 4.7%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 5.0%
First Round83.1% 83.3% 53.0%
Second Round67.6% 67.9% 36.0%
Sweet Sixteen42.4% 42.6% 18.6%
Elite Eight24.0% 24.2% 7.8%
Final Four12.9% 12.9% 3.2%
Championship Game6.6% 6.6% 1.4%
National Champion3.3% 3.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 113 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 297   Canisius W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 09, 2024 227   Old Dominion W 91-69 98%    
  Nov 15, 2024 44   @ Wisconsin W 76-73 60%    
  Nov 22, 2024 4   Duke W 77-76 52%    
  Nov 27, 2024 135   Davidson W 81-67 90%    
  Dec 07, 2024 218   Southern Utah W 92-70 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 23   UCLA W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 18, 2024 138   Samford W 95-77 93%    
  Dec 21, 2024 277   Central Michigan W 85-60 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 53   TCU W 85-75 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 07, 2025 65   @ West Virginia W 81-77 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 71   Central Florida W 83-72 83%    
  Jan 14, 2025 9   Baylor W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 21, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   Colorado W 83-71 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 32   @ BYU W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 21   Texas Tech W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 11, 2025 39   @ Kansas St. W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Houston W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 17, 2025 9   @ Baylor L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   BYU W 84-77 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 77   Utah W 86-74 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 73-76 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 84-73 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 77-83 32%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.0 3.3 1.8 0.5 14.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.3 0.9 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.1 1.4 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.2 8.3 9.7 10.7 11.1 11.0 9.6 8.2 6.1 3.8 1.8 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 98.6% 1.8    1.7 0.1
18-2 88.2% 3.3    2.6 0.7 0.0
17-3 66.8% 4.0    2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 35.8% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.2% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 8.6 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
19-1 1.8% 100.0% 47.0% 53.0% 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.8% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.3 2.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.1% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.4 3.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.2% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.8 3.5 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.6% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2.4 2.1 3.6 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.0% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 3.1 0.9 2.7 3.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.1% 99.8% 9.0% 90.8% 4.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 10.7% 99.3% 4.8% 94.5% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 9.7% 96.4% 3.0% 93.3% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 96.2%
10-10 8.3% 86.8% 2.0% 84.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.1 86.5%
9-11 6.2% 59.1% 1.0% 58.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 58.7%
8-12 4.8% 27.6% 0.5% 27.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.5 27.3%
7-13 3.6% 8.2% 0.1% 8.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.3 8.1%
6-14 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.2%
5-15 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.4 0.2%
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 84.5% 11.4% 73.1% 4.2 15.5 14.4 12.2 10.1 8.1 6.6 4.9 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 82.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.1 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8