Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Alabama 92.3%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +18.3      +12.7 1 +5.6 30 78.8 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
10 Auburn 84.6%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +16.1      +8.9 11 +7.3 11 73.1 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
14 Tennessee 75.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +14.3      +6.0 34 +8.3 7 71.7 84 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Arkansas 72.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +13.7      +7.8 17 +5.9 24 74.7 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 Kentucky 74.6%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +13.5      +9.2 8 +4.3 56 78.9 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Texas 62.7%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +13.0      +6.7 27 +6.3 20 68.0 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 Texas A&M 65.3%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +12.8      +7.5 19 +5.3 36 65.7 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
25 Florida 62.4%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +12.1      +8.2 14 +3.9 69 77.2 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Mississippi St. 53.2%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +11.4      +5.8 41 +5.6 29 67.5 209 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Mississippi 49.5%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +10.8      +7.6 18 +3.1 87 67.2 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 LSU 37.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +9.4      +5.1 50 +4.4 53 73.0 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 Oklahoma 37.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +9.4      +4.5 61 +4.9 38 67.9 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
58 Missouri 32.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.1      +6.0 35 +3.1 88 66.8 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 Georgia 34.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8.7      +4.0 77 +4.8 41 71.0 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
64 South Carolina 33.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +8.5      +4.2 71 +4.4 51 60.2 354 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 Vanderbilt 18.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 6 - 12 +6.9      +4.7 56 +2.2 109 65.3 275 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Alabama 3.9 30.1 16.8 12.2 9.0 7.2 5.7 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2
Auburn 4.9 20.1 14.4 11.2 10.0 7.9 7.1 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.6
Tennessee 6.1 12.7 11.4 10.3 9.2 8.3 7.4 6.8 6.2 5.9 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.2
Arkansas 6.4 11.1 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.5 7.8 7.3 6.5 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.5
Kentucky 6.7 9.8 9.5 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.6 6.4 5.7 5.1 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.6 1.8
Texas 7.1 9.1 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.1 2.3
Texas A&M 7.1 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.2 2.2
Florida 7.5 6.5 7.4 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.6 2.4
Mississippi St. 8.3 5.0 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.0 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.0
Mississippi 8.6 4.4 5.3 5.5 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.4 5.7 4.6
LSU 9.7 2.4 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.4 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.2 7.6
Oklahoma 9.6 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.4 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.1 7.9 6.8
Missouri 9.7 2.4 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.6
Georgia 10.2 1.8 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.2 9.2 8.5
South Carolina 10.3 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.0 9.9 9.7
Vanderbilt 11.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.4 4.4 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.5 9.7 11.2 13.2 15.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Alabama 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 8.1 10.2 11.7 13.5 13.0 11.6 8.7 5.1 1.9
Auburn 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.3 8.1 10.1 11.6 12.2 11.4 10.7 8.5 5.8 3.0 0.9
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.7 8.5 10.0 11.1 11.5 11.3 10.0 7.8 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.4
Arkansas 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.6 11.7 11.5 10.7 9.1 7.4 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.3
Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.6 11.1 10.2 8.6 6.5 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.3
Texas 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.5 9.8 10.7 11.1 10.6 9.6 8.0 6.0 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3
Texas A&M 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.0 6.7 8.4 10.0 11.1 11.2 10.5 9.7 8.0 5.9 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.3
Florida 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.2 7.4 9.4 10.7 11.5 11.7 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.1
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.7 10.5 11.2 11.4 10.8 9.2 7.5 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Mississippi 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.6 5.5 7.7 9.4 10.7 11.2 11.1 10.3 8.7 6.8 5.1 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
LSU 8 - 10 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.5 7.8 9.7 11.0 11.6 10.9 10.3 8.7 6.8 5.2 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.3 1.4 3.0 5.3 7.4 9.5 11.0 11.4 11.4 10.6 9.2 7.3 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Missouri 8 - 10 0.3 1.4 3.1 5.4 7.5 9.7 10.8 11.6 11.4 10.6 8.8 7.1 5.1 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Georgia 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.6 10.5 11.6 12.3 11.2 9.9 8.0 6.0 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 7 - 11 0.6 2.3 4.1 6.6 9.1 10.3 11.4 11.3 10.7 9.4 7.9 6.0 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 6 - 12 1.2 3.8 6.6 9.6 11.4 12.6 12.1 11.1 9.2 7.6 5.5 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Alabama 30.1% 20.4 7.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Auburn 20.1% 12.9 5.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 12.7% 7.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 11.1% 6.4 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 9.8% 5.6 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas 9.1% 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 8.6% 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida 6.5% 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 5.0% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 4.4% 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
LSU 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.4% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Missouri 2.4% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 1.8% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Alabama 92.3% 22.9% 69.3% 1   29.6 20.4 13.3 8.7 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 90.0%
Auburn 84.6% 14.5% 70.1% 2   17.0 15.1 12.3 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 82.0%
Tennessee 75.4% 9.2% 66.2% 4   8.1 9.0 9.2 8.6 8.0 7.2 6.6 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 24.6 72.9%
Arkansas 72.4% 8.4% 64.0% 4   6.8 7.9 8.5 8.3 8.0 8.0 6.3 5.9 4.8 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 27.6 69.9%
Kentucky 74.6% 7.8% 66.8% 4   8.7 9.8 10.1 9.1 8.4 7.6 5.5 4.6 3.4 3.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 25.4 72.5%
Texas 62.7% 6.8% 55.9% 7   3.9 4.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.0 7.2 7.2 5.9 5.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 37.3 60.0%
Texas A&M 65.3% 6.5% 58.7% 5   4.5 6.2 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.8 4.7 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 34.7 62.8%
Florida 62.4% 5.5% 57.0% 5   3.8 5.4 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.3 5.9 5.3 4.6 4.2 4.3 1.0 0.0 37.6 60.3%
Mississippi St. 53.2% 4.0% 49.2% 8   2.4 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.1 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 46.8 51.2%
Mississippi 49.5% 3.8% 45.7% 10   2.0 2.8 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.7 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.7 0.8 0.0 50.5 47.5%
LSU 37.7% 2.3% 35.4% 0.9 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 62.3 36.3%
Oklahoma 37.3% 2.1% 35.1% 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 62.7 35.9%
Missouri 32.6% 1.9% 30.7% 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.9 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 67.4 31.3%
Georgia 34.0% 1.8% 32.2% 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 66.0 32.8%
South Carolina 33.8% 1.7% 32.2% 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 66.2 32.7%
Vanderbilt 18.8% 0.9% 17.9% 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 81.2 18.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Alabama 92.3% 1.8% 91.5% 81.1% 56.8% 35.7% 21.1% 12.2% 6.9%
Auburn 84.6% 3.4% 83.1% 68.8% 43.9% 25.2% 13.5% 6.9% 3.5%
Tennessee 75.4% 3.6% 73.7% 55.1% 31.3% 16.3% 8.2% 4.0% 1.9%
Arkansas 72.4% 3.1% 70.9% 51.8% 28.3% 14.1% 7.0% 3.3% 1.6%
Kentucky 74.6% 3.7% 72.8% 54.5% 30.1% 15.0% 7.1% 3.4% 1.6%
Texas 62.7% 3.5% 61.0% 42.6% 21.9% 11.0% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1%
Texas A&M 65.3% 4.8% 62.9% 44.3% 23.3% 11.1% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1%
Florida 62.4% 4.7% 60.1% 41.1% 20.7% 9.7% 4.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Mississippi St. 53.2% 3.9% 51.2% 34.0% 16.1% 7.3% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Mississippi 49.5% 4.7% 47.2% 30.3% 13.7% 6.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5%
LSU 37.7% 3.5% 35.9% 21.8% 9.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Oklahoma 37.3% 3.8% 35.3% 21.6% 9.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Missouri 32.6% 3.8% 30.7% 18.1% 7.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Georgia 34.0% 3.7% 31.9% 18.6% 7.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
South Carolina 33.8% 3.9% 31.8% 18.5% 7.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Vanderbilt 18.8% 2.9% 17.2% 9.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 11.4 23.9 29.5 20.9 8.5 2.0 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.7 14.9 26.8 28.5 17.0 5.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.1 0.0 0.4 2.7 9.6 20.6 27.5 22.7 11.7 3.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.2% 3.3 0.8 6.4 20.1 30.0 25.7 12.7 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 88.8% 1.7 11.2 33.2 35.0 16.3 3.9 0.5 0.0
Final Four 64.1% 0.9 35.9 45.4 16.5 2.1 0.1
Final Game 38.2% 0.4 61.8 34.4 3.8
Champion 20.7% 0.2 79.3 20.7