Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#42
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.8#22
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 4.0% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 8.6% 11.3% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 14.7% 18.8% 6.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.1% 52.5% 33.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.6% 29.3% 13.6%
Average Seed 8.2 7.8 9.3
.500 or above 88.8% 93.4% 79.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 95.0% 88.9%
Conference Champion 40.6% 45.3% 31.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four4.5% 4.9% 3.7%
First Round44.1% 50.3% 31.8%
Second Round25.2% 29.9% 15.8%
Sweet Sixteen11.3% 13.7% 6.3%
Elite Eight5.0% 6.1% 2.6%
Final Four2.2% 2.7% 1.2%
Championship Game0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 36 - 7
Quad 310 - 316 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 58   Missouri W 79-74 67%    
  Nov 09, 2024 95   @ UNLV W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 15, 2024 121   Ohio W 83-72 84%    
  Nov 21, 2024 82   San Francisco W 77-74 62%    
  Nov 25, 2024 1   Connecticut L 69-78 20%    
  Dec 04, 2024 108   Louisiana Tech W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 08, 2024 134   Arkansas St. W 86-74 85%    
  Dec 14, 2024 43   @ Clemson L 74-77 41%    
  Dec 18, 2024 57   @ Virginia L 64-66 45%    
  Dec 21, 2024 33   Mississippi St. W 77-75 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 40   Mississippi W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 02, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 05, 2025 86   North Texas W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 137   East Carolina W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 16, 2025 130   @ Temple W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 19, 2025 126   @ Charlotte W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 23, 2025 105   Wichita St. W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 26, 2025 88   UAB W 83-76 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 175   @ Tulane W 88-80 75%    
  Feb 02, 2025 211   @ Rice W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 05, 2025 148   Tulsa W 87-74 86%    
  Feb 09, 2025 130   Temple W 82-70 83%    
  Feb 13, 2025 102   @ South Florida W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 105   @ Wichita St. W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 23, 2025 97   Florida Atlantic W 82-74 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 211   Rice W 84-68 91%    
  Mar 02, 2025 88   @ UAB W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 232   @ Texas San Antonio W 88-77 82%    
  Mar 07, 2025 102   South Florida W 80-72 75%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.2 10.0 10.7 7.9 3.2 40.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 6.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.9 6.3 8.5 11.0 13.0 13.6 13.3 11.4 7.9 3.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
17-1 99.8% 7.9    7.6 0.3
16-2 94.0% 10.7    9.2 1.5 0.0
15-3 74.9% 10.0    6.6 3.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 45.7% 6.2    2.7 2.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 18.0% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 29.8 8.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.2% 97.7% 66.5% 31.2% 3.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.2%
17-1 7.9% 93.9% 58.3% 35.6% 5.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 85.4%
16-2 11.4% 84.7% 49.1% 35.5% 7.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.7 69.8%
15-3 13.3% 69.4% 40.6% 28.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.1 48.5%
14-4 13.6% 52.3% 31.8% 20.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.5 30.1%
13-5 13.0% 36.2% 25.4% 10.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 14.5%
12-6 11.0% 22.9% 17.9% 5.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.4 6.1%
11-7 8.5% 16.2% 14.3% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.1 2.2%
10-8 6.3% 9.2% 8.5% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.8%
9-9 4.9% 6.2% 6.0% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2%
8-10 3.0% 3.7% 3.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
7-11 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 46.1% 29.5% 16.6% 8.2 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 4.2 5.4 9.8 4.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 53.9 23.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 52.3 34.8 9.8 1.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 42.9 28.6 21.4 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 66.7 16.7 16.7