Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
42 Memphis 46.1%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +10.7      +6.5 30 +4.2 62 76.8 22 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 North Texas 18.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 11 - 7 +7.0      +1.6 129 +5.3 35 57.5 362 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 UAB 17.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 7 +6.9      +5.8 40 +1.1 134 68.8 160 0.0 1 0.0 1
97 Florida Atlantic 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +5.8      +4.1 74 +1.7 121 69.5 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 South Florida 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +5.3      +2.1 116 +3.2 85 69.3 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
105 Wichita St. 10.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +4.6      +2.2 115 +2.4 99 69.5 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Charlotte 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.2      +0.3 160 +1.9 113 59.0 358 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Temple 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +2.1      +1.2 138 +0.9 139 66.9 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 East Carolina 4.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +1.5      +0.7 151 +0.8 143 63.3 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
148 Tulsa 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +0.8      +0.6 154 +0.2 159 74.8 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Tulane 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 11 -0.6      +1.1 142 -1.6 230 79.8 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Rice 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 12 -2.6      -0.2 171 -2.4 258 65.3 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 Texas San Antonio 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -3.5      +0.4 158 -3.9 310 75.0 37 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 2.9 40.6 19.1 12.3 8.3 5.7 4.3 3.3 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1
North Texas 4.3 18.1 16.9 13.7 11.3 9.4 7.8 6.4 5.2 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.7
UAB 4.7 15.8 14.4 12.9 11.3 10.0 8.4 7.2 5.8 4.8 3.8 2.9 1.8 0.9
Florida Atlantic 5.4 11.7 11.5 11.1 10.5 9.9 9.2 8.3 7.3 6.5 5.4 4.3 2.8 1.4
South Florida 5.6 10.3 11.1 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.3 8.4 7.6 6.7 5.8 4.7 3.4 1.7
Wichita St. 5.8 9.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 9.8 9.4 8.7 8.0 7.0 6.1 4.7 3.5 2.1
Charlotte 6.9 4.9 6.8 8.1 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.1 7.6 6.2 4.3
Temple 7.4 3.9 5.6 6.6 7.5 8.1 8.8 9.1 9.6 9.4 9.3 8.9 7.9 5.3
East Carolina 7.3 3.7 6.1 7.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.4 7.8 5.4
Tulsa 7.5 3.1 4.9 6.5 7.6 8.3 9.1 9.0 9.6 9.4 9.1 9.1 7.9 6.4
Tulane 8.3 2.1 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.6 7.7 8.4 9.3 9.7 10.4 10.9 10.8 10.1
Rice 9.7 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.3 7.8 9.4 11.5 13.7 16.3 18.7
Texas San Antonio 10.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.9 10.8 13.5 17.0 22.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.9 6.3 8.5 11.0 13.0 13.6 13.3 11.4 7.9 3.2
North Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.8 12.2 11.9 10.1 7.7 5.1 2.4 0.7
UAB 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.9 7.4 9.9 11.2 12.1 11.8 10.9 8.6 6.4 4.0 1.9 0.6
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.9 7.9 9.3 10.8 11.6 11.3 10.6 8.8 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.1 0.3
South Florida 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.2 8.0 9.5 10.8 11.6 11.1 10.1 8.7 6.7 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.2
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.6 6.4 8.5 10.2 11.1 11.5 11.1 9.9 8.3 6.0 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2
Charlotte 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.2 10.4 11.3 11.2 10.8 9.4 7.5 5.5 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Temple 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.2 8.3 9.8 11.3 11.7 11.0 10.1 8.0 6.2 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.1 7.9 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.1 8.6 6.6 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Tulsa 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.3 6.5 8.4 10.0 11.4 11.6 11.1 10.0 8.3 6.1 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tulane 7 - 11 0.4 1.8 3.9 6.2 8.6 10.5 11.3 11.7 11.1 9.4 8.2 6.2 4.6 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 6 - 12 1.4 4.1 7.5 10.4 12.0 13.1 12.6 11.0 9.2 6.9 4.8 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 1.9 5.2 8.9 11.4 12.6 13.0 11.9 10.4 8.2 6.3 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 40.6% 29.8 8.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Texas 18.1% 11.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
UAB 15.8% 9.9 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 11.7% 7.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Florida 10.3% 6.1 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 9.3% 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 3.7% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 3.1% 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 2.1% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 46.1% 29.5% 16.6% 11   1.2 1.7 2.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 4.2 5.4 9.8 4.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 53.9 23.6%
North Texas 18.5% 13.5% 5.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 5.4 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 81.5 5.8%
UAB 17.4% 13.2% 4.2% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.6 4.9 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 82.6 4.9%
Florida Atlantic 15.2% 10.0% 5.3% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.9 4.3 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 84.8 5.8%
South Florida 12.2% 9.2% 3.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.3 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 87.8 3.3%
Wichita St. 10.9% 7.7% 3.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 89.1 3.5%
Charlotte 5.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.9 1.1%
Temple 4.7% 3.8% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 95.3 0.9%
East Carolina 4.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.9 0.7%
Tulsa 3.2% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.8 0.4%
Tulane 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.2%
Rice 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 46.1% 4.5% 44.1% 25.2% 11.3% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
North Texas 18.5% 2.7% 17.4% 7.5% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
UAB 17.4% 2.0% 16.5% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 15.2% 2.2% 14.2% 6.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
South Florida 12.2% 1.4% 11.5% 4.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 10.9% 1.5% 10.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 5.1% 0.6% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 4.7% 0.6% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 4.1% 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 3.2% 0.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 64.1 31.4 4.2 0.3 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.3 0.1 69.7 27.3 2.8 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 51.7% 0.6 48.3 44.3 7.1 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 22.1% 0.2 77.9 21.0 1.1 0.0
Elite Eight 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.2
Final Four 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5