Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#117
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.4#49
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#162
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 24.4% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.5
.500 or above 83.8% 91.0% 74.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 93.4% 86.1%
Conference Champion 29.6% 35.2% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round20.4% 24.3% 15.3%
Second Round3.9% 5.2% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Neutral) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 413 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 140   Southern Illinois W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 08, 2024 102   South Florida W 76-75 52%    
  Nov 15, 2024 97   Florida Atlantic W 78-77 51%    
  Nov 17, 2024 110   Liberty W 73-71 58%    
  Nov 20, 2024 325   @ The Citadel W 77-68 80%    
  Nov 24, 2024 142   @ Rhode Island L 78-79 46%    
  Nov 27, 2024 174   Northern Kentucky W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 10, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 73-80 27%    
  Dec 16, 2024 153   Wofford W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 22, 2024 123   Oregon St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 02, 2025 322   Hampton W 86-71 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 124   Towson W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 09, 2025 155   @ Hofstra L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 216   @ Monmouth W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 301   @ Campbell W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 220   Northeastern W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 23, 2025 157   UNC Wilmington W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 288   @ Elon W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 260   Stony Brook W 80-69 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 247   @ William & Mary W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 312   N.C. A&T W 83-69 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 288   Elon W 82-70 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   @ N.C. A&T W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 20, 2025 220   @ Northeastern W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 154   @ Drexel L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 187   Delaware W 78-71 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 301   Campbell W 80-67 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 7.8 8.2 5.3 1.8 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 6.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.8 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.0 1.3 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 4.1 5.9 8.1 10.0 12.1 13.4 13.1 11.5 9.1 5.4 1.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 98.8% 5.3    5.0 0.4
16-2 90.0% 8.2    6.6 1.5 0.1
15-3 67.4% 7.8    4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 36.7% 4.8    1.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.8% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 20.0 7.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 68.7% 61.7% 7.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 18.3%
17-1 5.4% 52.5% 50.9% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 3.4%
16-2 9.1% 41.3% 41.0% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.3 0.4%
15-3 11.5% 31.9% 31.9% 0.1% 12.9 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.8 0.1%
14-4 13.1% 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 9.8 0.0%
13-5 13.4% 19.8% 19.8% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 10.7
12-6 12.1% 13.2% 13.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 10.5
11-7 10.0% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.2
10-8 8.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.6
9-9 5.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
8-10 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
7-11 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.6% 20.3% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.5 4.9 5.7 4.5 2.3 0.7 79.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.9 3.2 9.5 11.1 19.3 27.2 9.8 10.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 74.5% 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 16.4 9.1 21.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 56.4% 9.5 9.1 18.2 9.1 20.0