IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.1	#247
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.1	#278
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#229

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#259

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.4%	4.9%	2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	14.1	14.6

.500 or above	34.1%	48.1%	23.6%
.500 or above in Conference	47.1%	56.7%	39.9%
Conference Champion	3.8%	5.7%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	8.0%	4.8%	10.4%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	3.2%	4.8%	2.1%
Second Round	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	269	@ Radford	L	65-67	43%
Nov 14, 2024	251	Norfolk St.	W	70-67	62%
Nov 15, 2024	189	@ Winthrop	L	67-73	29%
Nov 16, 2024	256	NC Central	W	70-69	53%
Nov 17, 2024	209	Georgia Southern	L	71-73	44%
Nov 22, 2024	49	@ North Carolina St.	L	62-79	7%
Nov 24, 2024	139	@ Appalachian St.	L	64-72	23%
Dec 02, 2024	227	@ Old Dominion	L	70-74	36%
Dec 18, 2024	133	Richmond	L	66-69	39%
Dec 22, 2024	85	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	60-74	12%
Dec 29, 2024	258	Navy	W	69-65	62%
Jan 02, 2025	155	@ Hofstra	L	64-71	27%
Jan 04, 2025	260	@ Stony Brook	L	68-70	43%
Jan 09, 2025	288	Elon	W	73-68	68%
Jan 11, 2025	312	N.C. A&T	W	74-67	72%
Jan 16, 2025	322	@ Hampton	W	73-71	57%
Jan 18, 2025	157	@ UNC Wilmington	L	65-72	27%
Jan 23, 2025	322	Hampton	W	76-68	75%
Jan 25, 2025	216	Monmouth	W	71-69	56%
Jan 30, 2025	301	@ Campbell	W	69-68	51%
Feb 01, 2025	117	College of Charleston	L	72-76	37%
Feb 06, 2025	154	@ Drexel	L	63-70	27%
Feb 08, 2025	187	@ Delaware	L	66-72	31%
Feb 13, 2025	155	Hofstra	L	67-68	45%
Feb 15, 2025	154	Drexel	L	66-67	45%
Feb 20, 2025	157	UNC Wilmington	L	68-69	45%
Feb 22, 2025	288	@ Elon	L	70-71	48%
Feb 27, 2025	124	@ Towson	L	59-68	22%
Mar 01, 2025	220	Northeastern	W	69-67	56%
Projected Record						12 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.1		3.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.9	1.9	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			4.9	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.1	2.5	1.9	0.5	0.0	0.0				6.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.1	2.3	0.5	0.0						6.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.3	3.1	0.7	0.0							7.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	3.0	3.8	1.1	0.1								8.4	6th
7th								0.2	2.3	4.4	1.6	0.1									8.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.6	4.6	2.6	0.2										9.2	8th
9th						0.1	1.0	4.0	3.3	0.5	0.0										8.9	9th
10th					0.0	0.6	3.3	3.8	0.9	0.0											8.7	10th
11th				0.0	0.6	2.6	3.7	1.3	0.1												8.3	11th
12th			0.0	0.5	2.1	3.3	1.4	0.1													7.4	12th
13th		0.0	0.6	1.7	2.6	1.2	0.2	0.0													6.3	13th
14th	0.2	0.7	1.4	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0														4.6	14th

Total	0.2	0.8	2.0	3.6	5.9	7.9	9.7	11.1	11.7	11.3	10.0	8.7	6.6	4.8	3.0	1.7	0.8	0.2	0.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	87.5%	0.7		0.5	0.1	0.0
15-3	66.1%	1.1		0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	37.3%	1.1		0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	10.6%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.8%	3.8		2.0	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		39.8%	35.3%	4.5%	10.8									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		7.0%
17-1	0.2%		41.1%	41.1%		12.3											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
16-2	0.8%		28.8%	28.8%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6
15-3	1.7%		23.8%	23.8%		13.4												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.3
14-4	3.0%		14.3%	14.3%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.6
13-5	4.8%		11.7%	11.7%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	4.2
12-6	6.6%		7.6%	7.6%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	6.1
11-7	8.7%		5.5%	5.5%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	8.2
10-8	10.0%		2.9%	2.9%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.7
9-9	11.3%		1.6%	1.6%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	11.1
8-10	11.7%		1.0%	1.0%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	11.5
7-11	11.1%		0.2%	0.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	11.1
6-12	9.7%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
5-13	7.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
4-14	5.9%																							5.9
3-15	3.6%																							3.6
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		3.4%	3.4%	0.0%	14.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.7	96.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%