Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#308
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#196
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#303
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#286
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 9.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 32.7% 68.7% 32.1%
.500 or above in Conference 41.2% 68.6% 40.7%
Conference Champion 3.7% 11.4% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 3.4% 11.7%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.4%
First Round2.9% 8.1% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 24   @ Michigan St. L 56-79 2%    
  Nov 10, 2024 342   @ Detroit Mercy W 71-70 53%    
  Nov 19, 2024 265   @ Bowling Green L 68-74 31%    
  Nov 21, 2024 118   @ Kent St. L 62-76 11%    
  Nov 29, 2024 318   Binghamton W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 30, 2024 199   @ Lafayette L 61-70 21%    
  Dec 01, 2024 352   LIU Brooklyn W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 06, 2024 339   Siena W 70-64 70%    
  Dec 08, 2024 243   Merrimack L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 14, 2024 354   St. Francis (PA) W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 120   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-75 13%    
  Dec 29, 2024 335   Le Moyne W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 05, 2025 270   @ Mount St. Mary's L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 10, 2025 214   St. Peter's L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 12, 2025 241   Rider L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 16, 2025 237   @ Fairfield L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 331   @ Manhattan L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 23, 2025 235   Marist L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 334   Sacred Heart W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 31, 2025 297   @ Canisius L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 06, 2025 243   @ Merrimack L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 212   @ Quinnipiac L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 12, 2025 297   Canisius W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 14, 2025 270   Mount St. Mary's W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 21, 2025 339   @ Siena W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 235   @ Marist L 61-68 28%    
  Feb 28, 2025 210   Iona L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 02, 2025 331   Manhattan W 73-68 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 214   @ St. Peter's L 59-67 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 241   @ Rider L 67-74 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.1 1.9 0.2 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.3 13th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 5.2 7.5 8.7 9.9 10.5 10.6 9.8 8.5 7.1 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 99.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 94.1% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 86.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 60.5% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 48.8% 48.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 51.2% 51.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 35.7% 35.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 0.8% 27.8% 27.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 1.7% 20.4% 20.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3
15-5 2.8% 17.8% 17.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.3
14-6 4.2% 13.9% 13.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.6
13-7 5.6% 9.0% 9.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.1
12-8 7.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.6
11-9 8.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.2
10-10 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
9-11 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.5
8-12 10.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.4
7-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-14 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-15 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.5
4-16 5.2% 5.2
3-17 3.5% 3.5
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%