IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.5	#237
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.0	#130
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.8	#235

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#234

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.1%	16.3%	9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.6	15.1

.500 or above	54.9%	75.4%	48.5%
.500 or above in Conference	68.8%	81.1%	65.0%
Conference Champion	13.2%	20.3%	10.9%
Last Place in Conference	3.2%	1.5%	3.8%

First Four	2.7%	2.4%	2.8%
First Round	9.9%	15.3%	8.2%
Second Round	0.7%	1.4%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 9
Quad 4	13 - 7	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	142	@ Rhode Island	L	70-78	24%
Nov 09, 2024	101	@ Georgetown	L	67-79	13%
Nov 12, 2024	305	@ New Hampshire	W	75-74	54%
Nov 19, 2024	154	Drexel	L	68-69	48%
Nov 23, 2024	113	Yale	L	65-72	27%
Nov 24, 2024	111	Vermont	L	63-70	26%
Dec 01, 2024	347	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	W	80-75	68%
Dec 04, 2024	241	Rider	W	74-71	62%
Dec 08, 2024	270	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	72-73	46%
Dec 18, 2024	304	Central Connecticut St.	W	74-67	72%
Dec 21, 2024	216	@ Monmouth	L	70-74	38%
Dec 28, 2024	230	@ Columbia	L	73-76	39%
Jan 03, 2025	243	@ Merrimack	L	67-70	41%
Jan 10, 2025	210	Iona	W	72-70	56%
Jan 12, 2025	235	@ Marist	L	64-67	40%
Jan 16, 2025	308	Niagara	W	75-68	72%
Jan 18, 2025	297	Canisius	W	73-67	70%
Jan 23, 2025	331	@ Manhattan	W	73-70	61%
Jan 25, 2025	243	Merrimack	W	70-67	61%
Jan 31, 2025	212	@ Quinnipiac	L	74-78	37%
Feb 02, 2025	210	@ Iona	L	69-73	37%
Feb 06, 2025	235	Marist	W	67-64	60%
Feb 08, 2025	334	Sacred Heart	W	79-69	80%
Feb 14, 2025	214	@ St. Peter's	L	63-67	38%
Feb 16, 2025	331	Manhattan	W	76-67	78%
Feb 21, 2025	241	@ Rider	L	71-74	42%
Feb 28, 2025	270	Mount St. Mary's	W	75-70	65%
Mar 02, 2025	334	@ Sacred Heart	W	76-72	63%
Mar 06, 2025	339	@ Siena	W	70-66	64%
Mar 08, 2025	212	Quinnipiac	W	77-75	57%
Projected Record						15 - 15	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.9	2.3	3.5	3.1	2.1	0.9	0.2		13.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.7	3.4	3.6	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0			11.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.8	3.9	3.4	1.1	0.2	0.0					10.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.5	4.0	3.3	0.9	0.1	0.0						10.0	4th
5th										0.1	1.2	4.2	3.3	0.8	0.1								9.6	5th
6th									0.0	0.8	3.5	3.7	0.9	0.1									8.9	6th
7th								0.0	0.6	2.7	3.3	1.1	0.1										7.9	7th
8th							0.0	0.4	2.1	3.4	1.3	0.1	0.0										7.2	8th
9th						0.0	0.3	1.7	2.8	1.4	0.1												6.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.3	2.4	1.4	0.2	0.0												5.6	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.1	1.7	1.0	0.2	0.0													4.3	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0														3.2	12th
13th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0															1.8	13th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.6	2.7	4.0	5.7	7.2	8.7	9.6	10.8	10.3	9.9	8.7	7.1	5.5	3.7	2.1	0.9	0.2			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	99.7%	0.9		0.9	0.0
18-2	96.6%	2.1		1.9	0.2	0.0
17-3	85.1%	3.1		2.4	0.7	0.0
16-4	62.9%	3.5		2.0	1.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	32.2%	2.3		0.8	1.0	0.4	0.0
14-6	10.5%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.6%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	13.2%	13.2		8.5	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		60.7%	60.7%		12.0						0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
19-1	0.9%		51.2%	51.2%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.4
18-2	2.1%		45.1%	45.1%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	1.2
17-3	3.7%		36.5%	36.5%		14.2													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	2.3
16-4	5.5%		29.1%	29.1%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.3	3.9
15-5	7.1%		22.2%	22.2%		15.1														0.1	0.3	0.7	0.6	5.5
14-6	8.7%		17.9%	17.9%		15.5														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	7.1
13-7	9.9%		13.6%	13.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.5
12-8	10.3%		9.3%	9.3%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	9.3
11-9	10.8%		5.0%	5.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	10.3
10-10	9.6%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	9.2
9-11	8.7%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.1	8.5
8-12	7.2%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	7.1
7-13	5.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
6-14	4.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
5-15	2.7%																							2.7
4-16	1.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
3-17	0.9%																							0.9
2-18	0.4%																							0.4
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	15.0						0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.9	3.0	4.7	88.9		0.0%