Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.4#175
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.8% 9.0% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 16.3% 16.7% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.8% 43.5% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.1% 40.8% 15.0%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 71.9% 72.9% 37.8%
.500 or above in Conference 50.0% 50.7% 26.5%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 7.3% 17.5%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 3.0%
First Round40.3% 41.1% 15.2%
Second Round24.5% 25.0% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen10.3% 10.5% 3.2%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.6% 1.6%
Final Four1.9% 2.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 304   Central Connecticut St. W 79-59 97%    
  Nov 09, 2024 356   Stonehill W 82-55 99%    
  Nov 12, 2024 322   Hampton W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 16, 2024 310   Green Bay W 77-56 97%    
  Nov 19, 2024 340   Delaware St. W 82-58 98%    
  Nov 27, 2024 55   Oklahoma W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 03, 2024 32   BYU W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 07, 2024 142   @ Rhode Island W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 10, 2024 122   @ DePaul W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 14, 2024 120   St. Bonaventure W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 20, 2024 18   St. John's W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 31, 2024 26   Marquette W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 05, 2025 1   @ Connecticut L 61-74 13%    
  Jan 08, 2025 72   Butler W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 11, 2025 68   Seton Hall W 70-65 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 13   @ Creighton L 67-75 26%    
  Jan 17, 2025 37   @ Villanova L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 101   Georgetown W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 18   @ St. John's L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 13   Creighton L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 72   @ Butler L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 12, 2025 28   Xavier W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 37   Villanova W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 101   @ Georgetown W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 26   @ Marquette L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Connecticut L 64-71 28%    
  Mar 05, 2025 122   DePaul W 76-66 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 28   @ Xavier L 73-78 34%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.4 3.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 4.4 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.3 8.8 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.1 8.6 7.4 5.4 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 96.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 72.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 46.9% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1
15-5 21.7% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.4% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 3.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.7% 99.7% 17.8% 81.9% 4.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 5.4% 98.6% 12.2% 86.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
13-7 7.4% 95.1% 8.6% 86.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 94.6%
12-8 8.6% 86.7% 5.7% 81.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.2 85.9%
11-9 10.1% 70.8% 4.1% 66.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.1 2.9 69.5%
10-10 10.5% 46.9% 2.6% 44.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.6 45.5%
9-11 10.6% 21.2% 1.2% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.4 20.3%
8-12 10.1% 5.0% 0.7% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.6 4.4%
7-13 8.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.6%
6-14 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
5-15 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 42.8% 4.5% 38.3% 7.2 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.2 40.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0