IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.6	#63
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.0	#255
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.0	#76

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.6	#47

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.5%	0.6%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	1.3%	1.5%	0.2%
Top 4 Seed	4.0%	4.6%	0.8%
Top 6 Seed	7.7%	8.8%	1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	30.6%	33.4%	15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	17.4%	19.6%	6.6%
Average Seed	8.6	8.4	9.8

.500 or above	86.1%	89.2%	69.7%
.500 or above in Conference	83.2%	85.3%	71.9%
Conference Champion	20.7%	22.4%	11.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.6%	1.8%

First Four	4.3%	4.7%	2.4%
First Round	28.6%	31.2%	14.8%
Second Round	15.3%	16.9%	6.5%
Sweet Sixteen	6.3%	7.0%	2.1%
Elite Eight	2.7%	3.1%	0.7%
Final Four	1.1%	1.3%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%
National Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 4
Quad 2	4 - 4	6 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 2	12 - 10
Quad 4	8 - 1	20 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2024	146	Oakland	W	75-64	84%
Nov 09, 2024	82	@ San Francisco	L	68-70	44%
Nov 17, 2024	43	Clemson	W	69-68	55%
Nov 24, 2024	322	Hampton	W	81-63	95%
Dec 03, 2024	276	Utah Tech	W	81-64	93%
Dec 08, 2024	91	Washington St.	W	67-65	57%
Dec 15, 2024	35	St. Mary's	L	62-64	42%
Dec 17, 2024	261	Texas Southern	W	77-60	92%
Dec 21, 2024	229	Air Force	W	72-57	90%
Dec 28, 2024	160	@ San Jose St.	W	71-66	68%
Dec 31, 2024	177	@ Wyoming	W	73-67	70%
Jan 04, 2025	47	San Diego St.	W	67-65	56%
Jan 07, 2025	95	UNLV	W	71-65	68%
Jan 11, 2025	81	@ Utah St.	L	70-72	45%
Jan 14, 2025	177	Wyoming	W	76-64	85%
Jan 17, 2025	70	@ New Mexico	L	74-77	42%
Jan 21, 2025	84	@ Colorado St.	L	67-68	45%
Jan 28, 2025	75	Nevada	W	71-67	63%
Feb 01, 2025	250	Fresno St.	W	74-58	90%
Feb 04, 2025	95	@ UNLV	L	67-68	49%
Feb 07, 2025	160	San Jose St.	W	74-63	83%
Feb 15, 2025	47	@ San Diego St.	L	64-68	36%
Feb 18, 2025	70	New Mexico	W	77-74	61%
Feb 22, 2025	75	@ Nevada	L	68-70	44%
Feb 25, 2025	81	Utah St.	W	73-69	64%
Mar 01, 2025	250	@ Fresno St.	W	71-61	79%
Mar 04, 2025	229	@ Air Force	W	69-60	77%
Mar 08, 2025	84	Colorado St.	W	70-65	65%
Projected Record						18 - 10	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.8	2.7	4.9	5.3	4.0	2.2	0.7		20.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.5	4.4	5.4	3.6	1.3	0.2				16.6	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	2.2	5.0	4.9	2.1	0.3	0.0					14.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.2	4.8	4.1	1.2	0.1							12.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.3	4.4	3.1	0.8	0.0								11.0	5th
6th								0.1	0.6	2.2	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.0									8.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.6	1.8	2.5	1.4	0.3	0.0										6.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0											4.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.0													2.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0														1.1	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.4	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.1	1.9	2.9	4.3	5.9	7.6	9.4	10.7	11.6	11.3	10.2	8.8	6.6	4.2	2.2	0.7			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
19-1	100.0%	2.2		2.2	0.0
18-2	96.1%	4.0		3.6	0.4	0.0
17-3	80.6%	5.3		3.9	1.3	0.1
16-4	55.3%	4.9		2.6	2.0	0.3	0.0
15-5	26.2%	2.7		0.9	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	7.1%	0.8		0.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	20.7%	20.7		14.0	5.4	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.7%		99.6%	54.9%	44.8%	2.7		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0									0.0		99.2%
19-1	2.2%		98.3%	54.2%	44.1%	3.9		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		96.4%
18-2	4.2%		94.3%	46.6%	47.6%	5.7		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.2		89.2%
17-3	6.6%		85.3%	36.9%	48.4%	7.6		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0				1.0		76.8%
16-4	8.8%		68.5%	30.4%	38.1%	9.2			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.1	1.4	1.5	0.2	0.0				2.8		54.7%
15-5	10.2%		47.9%	22.5%	25.4%	10.1					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.1	2.0	0.5	0.0				5.3		32.7%
14-6	11.3%		28.2%	16.2%	12.0%	10.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.5	0.6	0.0	0.0			8.1		14.4%
13-7	11.6%		16.4%	11.3%	5.1%	11.2								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0			9.7		5.8%
12-8	10.7%		10.0%	8.3%	1.7%	11.5									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			9.6		1.9%
11-9	9.4%		6.8%	6.3%	0.6%	11.9											0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.7		0.6%
10-10	7.6%		3.7%	3.6%	0.1%	12.2												0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.3		0.1%
9-11	5.9%		2.0%	2.0%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.8
8-12	4.3%		1.2%	1.2%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2
7-13	2.9%		1.0%	1.0%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.8
6-14	1.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.7																0.0	0.0	1.9
5-15	1.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
4-16	0.4%																							0.4
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		30.6%	16.0%	14.6%	8.6		0.5	0.8	1.1	1.6	1.8	1.8	2.2	2.4	3.1	4.5	7.3	3.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	69.4		17.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.6	52.0	38.6	7.8	1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.9	36.8	41.1	22.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.5	28.0	30.0	20.0	10.0	10.0	2.0