Preseason Rankings
St. John's
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#18
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#83
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 5.4% 5.7% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 12.1% 12.8% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 27.6% 28.9% 10.0%
Top 6 Seed 42.9% 44.7% 19.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.4% 71.4% 44.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.1% 68.1% 41.5%
Average Seed 5.7 5.6 6.9
.500 or above 84.9% 86.6% 61.5%
.500 or above in Conference 69.9% 71.4% 50.1%
Conference Champion 10.3% 10.8% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.7% 6.9%
First Four4.3% 4.3% 5.1%
First Round67.2% 69.1% 41.7%
Second Round47.5% 49.2% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen24.5% 25.5% 10.7%
Elite Eight11.7% 12.3% 4.5%
Final Four5.4% 5.7% 1.8%
Championship Game2.4% 2.5% 0.6%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 35 - 116 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 159   Fordham W 82-66 93%    
  Nov 09, 2024 212   Quinnipiac W 87-69 96%    
  Nov 13, 2024 285   Wagner W 75-53 98%    
  Nov 17, 2024 70   New Mexico W 84-76 75%    
  Nov 21, 2024 9   Baylor L 72-75 38%    
  Nov 24, 2024 61   Georgia W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 30, 2024 182   Harvard W 81-64 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 39   Kansas St. W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 11, 2024 169   Bryant W 88-72 92%    
  Dec 17, 2024 122   @ DePaul W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 20, 2024 48   @ Providence L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 28, 2024 187   Delaware W 82-65 92%    
  Dec 31, 2024 13   @ Creighton L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 72   Butler W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 07, 2025 28   @ Xavier L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 37   Villanova W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 101   Georgetown W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 28   Xavier W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 28, 2025 101   @ Georgetown W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 48   Providence W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 04, 2025 26   Marquette W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 07, 2025 1   @ Connecticut L 66-76 20%    
  Feb 12, 2025 37   @ Villanova L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 16, 2025 13   Creighton W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 23, 2025 1   Connecticut L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 72   @ Butler W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   Seton Hall W 75-67 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   @ Marquette L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.2 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.8 4.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.9 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.8 4.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.5 7.0 8.6 9.7 10.7 10.7 10.2 9.0 7.5 5.7 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 92.0% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
17-3 74.0% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.0
16-4 43.7% 2.5    1.3 1.0 0.2
15-5 22.3% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.5% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.7% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 2.5 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.5% 99.9% 19.5% 80.4% 3.4 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.0% 99.8% 14.6% 85.2% 4.4 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.2% 98.6% 10.9% 87.7% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
12-8 10.7% 95.0% 7.5% 87.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 94.5%
11-9 10.7% 87.3% 5.3% 81.9% 7.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 1.4 86.6%
10-10 9.7% 68.7% 3.3% 65.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 67.6%
9-11 8.6% 39.9% 2.2% 37.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.2 38.5%
8-12 7.0% 14.0% 1.3% 12.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.1 12.9%
7-13 5.5% 3.8% 0.6% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 3.2%
6-14 3.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.4%
5-15 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.4% 9.8% 59.6% 5.7 5.4 6.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.5 5.7 5.0 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.6 66.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.1 17.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 86.7 13.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0