Pre-tourney Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#308
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#289
Pace61.5#329
Improvement+3.5#37

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#243
First Shot-3.5#266
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#108
Layup/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#240
Freethrows-1.7#289
Improvement-0.5#200

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#327
First Shot-6.5#335
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#220
Layups/Dunks-2.0#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#338
Freethrows+0.7#126
Improvement+4.1#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 45 - 46 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 07, 2020 42   @ Arizona L 53-96 3%     0 - 1 -30.2 -14.1 -17.2
  Dec 10, 2020 124   UC Riverside L 50-74 16%     0 - 2 -23.1 -17.1 -7.7
  Dec 14, 2020 66   @ Colorado St. L 52-91 4%     0 - 3 -28.6 -15.1 -13.8
  Dec 19, 2020 105   Eastern Washington L 64-80 13%     0 - 4 0 - 1 -13.2 -6.3 -7.4
  Dec 21, 2020 179   Texas St. L 65-70 20%     0 - 5 -5.7 +2.0 -8.3
  Dec 22, 2020 333   @ Denver W 68-65 57%     1 - 5 -8.4 -5.5 -2.7
  Dec 28, 2020 1   @ Gonzaga L 58-88 0.2%    1 - 6 -1.1 -2.5 +0.6
  Dec 31, 2020 340   @ Idaho W 78-65 66%     2 - 6 1 - 1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4
  Jan 02, 2021 340   @ Idaho W 83-78 OT 66%     3 - 6 2 - 1 -8.8 -2.1 -7.0
  Jan 07, 2021 261   Idaho St. L 69-73 45%     3 - 7 2 - 2 -12.4 +3.1 -15.9
  Jan 09, 2021 261   Idaho St. L 70-76 45%     3 - 8 2 - 3 -14.4 +10.8 -26.4
  Jan 14, 2021 199   @ Montana L 56-67 20%     3 - 9 2 - 4 -11.8 -3.8 -10.3
  Jan 16, 2021 199   @ Montana W 62-58 20%     4 - 9 3 - 4 +3.2 +0.0 +3.9
  Jan 21, 2021 218   Montana St. L 51-62 35%     4 - 10 3 - 5 -16.7 -15.7 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2021 218   Montana St. L 53-58 35%     4 - 11 3 - 6 -10.7 -18.4 +7.3
  Jan 29, 2021 231   Northern Colorado W 68-64 38%     5 - 11 4 - 6 -2.5 +2.2 -4.1
  Feb 18, 2021 125   @ Weber St. L 59-92 10%     5 - 12 4 - 7 -28.4 -10.7 -19.4
  Feb 20, 2021 125   @ Weber St. L 52-74 10%     5 - 13 4 - 8 -17.4 -18.9 +0.8
  Feb 24, 2021 139   @ Southern Utah L 80-85 11%     5 - 14 4 - 9 -1.4 +7.0 -8.5
  Feb 26, 2021 139   Southern Utah L 62-92 19%     5 - 15 4 - 10 -30.2 -14.8 -15.1
  Mar 10, 2021 247   Portland St. W 77-66 35%     6 - 15 +5.5 +2.2 +2.8
  Mar 11, 2021 105   Eastern Washington L 60-66 10%     6 - 16 -1.3 -7.6 +5.9
Projected Record 6 - 16 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

The conference records below are based on games currently on the team's schedule above.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10 100.0% 100.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%