American Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Memphis 66%   12   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.4 81 B +5 69 B- +2 99 +29 3 0 1
Wichita St. 26%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 83 B- +4 85 B- +3 85 0 137 0 1
South Florida 19%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.4 95 B +4 74 C+ +2 105 +1 129 0 1
Tulsa 13%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 104 B- +3 99 C+ +2 114 0 137 0 1
North Texas 8%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.3 112 C +0 166 B- +3 79 0 137 0 1
Florida Atlantic 9%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +3.0 116 C+ +1 135 C+ +2 106 +5 77 0 1
Charlotte 7%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.6 119 C+ +2 107 C +0 152 +12 18 0 1
Temple 7%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 122 C+ +2 122 C +1 142 0 262 0 1
UAB 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +0.5 147 C+ +2 116 C- -2 219 -6 317 0 1
Tulane 2%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 169 C+ +2 125 D+ -3 262 +3 95 0 1
East Carolina 2%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 171 C +0 173 C- -1 188 -1 280 0 1
Rice 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 242 C- -2 241 D+ -2 244 0 137 0 1
Texas San Antonio 0%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.9 269 C- -2 217 D -4 313 -10 332 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 21 Iowa St. 76 81 Memphis 80   
Mon, Nov 2 89 McNeese St. 99 147 UAB 78   
Mon, Nov 2 119 Charlotte 78 224 Indiana St. 70   
Mon, Nov 2 116 Florida Atlantic 74 254 LIU Brooklyn 60   
Mon, Nov 2 320 Charleston Southern 71 95 South Florida 98   
Mon, Nov 2 169 Tulane 100 283 Tennessee Martin 98   
Mon, Nov 2 158 San Jose St. 95 269 Texas San Antonio 74   
Mon, Nov 2 327 Central Connecticut St. 56 122 Temple 68   
Mon, Nov 2 171 East Carolina 83 345 South Carolina Upstate 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 214 Cal St. Northridge 69 83 Wichita St. 83 89%   
Thu, Nov 5 68 DePaul 76 95 South Florida 71 69%   
Thu, Nov 5 89 McNeese St. 67 112 North Texas 66 52%   
Thu, Nov 5 264 Northern Illinois 69 104 Tulsa 83 89%   
Thu, Nov 5 119 Charlotte 74 232 Georgia St. 64 82%   
Thu, Nov 5 302 Jackson St. 69 169 Tulane 79 82%   
Thu, Nov 5 242 Rice 71 294 East Texas A&M 65 71%   
Fri, Nov 6 116 Florida Atlantic 73 132 Wright St. 75 56%   
Fri, Nov 6 285 Nicholls St. 70 147 UAB 81 84%   
Sat, Nov 7 81 Memphis 78 61 Virginia Commonwealth 77 51%   
Sat, Nov 7 171 East Carolina 70 109 UNC Wilmington 72 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 269 Texas San Antonio 77 330 VMI 70 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3 30% 19% 8% 3% 30 19 13 11 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 0 0
Wichita St. 4 27% 17% 7% 3% 27 18 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
South Florida 4 19% 11% 5% 2% 19 16 13 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 0
Tulsa 5 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 2 1
Temple 6 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2
North Texas 6 9% 5% 3% 2% 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2
Florida Atlantic 6 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 2
Charlotte 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 3
UAB 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 4
East Carolina 8 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 8
Tulane 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 8
Rice 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 2 3 4 6 7 9 12 15 18 20
Texas San Antonio 11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 8 11 15 20 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 12 - 6 19 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 11 14 16 15 13 9 4 2 0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 20 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 15 14 11 7 4 1 0
South Florida 11 - 7 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 14 15 14 12 9 5 2 1 0
Tulsa 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 14 15 13 10 6 4 1 0 0
Temple 10 - 8 16 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 15 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
North Texas 10 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Charlotte 9 - 9 18 - 13 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 12 14 15 13 10 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
UAB 8 - 10 15 - 16 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
East Carolina 8 - 10 14 - 14 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Tulane 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 0 2 4 7 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Rice 6 - 12 11 - 19 0 2 5 10 14 16 15 14 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 10 - 20 1 3 7 12 16 17 15 12 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Memphis 66% 20% 58% 12 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 5 10 20 9 15 1 34
Wichita St. 26% 20% 8% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 3 12 4 74
South Florida 19% 15% 5% Likely Out 1 2 2 10 4 81
Tulsa 13% 11% 2% Likely Out 1 1 6 4 1 87
North Texas 8% 8% 1% Likely Out 0 4 3 1 92
Florida Atlantic 9% 7% 2% Likely Out 1 4 3 1 91
Charlotte 7% 5% 2% Likely Out 1 4 2 0 93
Temple 7% 6% 1% Likely Out 2 3 1 93
UAB 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 0 96
Tulane 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 98
East Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Rice 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99
Texas San Antonio 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.6 43 50 7 0
1st Round 100% 1.5 0 54 42 3 0
2nd Round 40% 0.5 60 36 4 0
Sweet Sixteen 13% 0.1 87 13 0 0
Elite Eight 4% 0.0 96 4 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 66% 15% 58% 21% 6% 2% 1%
Wichita St. 26% 4% 24% 8% 3% 1%
South Florida 19% 3% 17% 5% 2% 1%
Tulsa 13% 1% 12% 3% 1%
North Texas 8% 1% 8% 2%
Florida Atlantic 9% 1% 8% 2%
Charlotte 7% 2% 6% 1%
Temple 7% 1% 7% 1%
UAB 4% 4% 1%
Tulane 2% 2%
East Carolina 2% 2%
Rice 1%
Texas San Antonio 0%