American Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Memphis 61%   12   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.4 81 B +5 69 B- +2 99 +29 3 0 1
Wichita St. 23%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 83 B- +4 86 B- +3 84 0 159 0 1
South Florida 19%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.4 96 B +4 75 C+ +2 105 +1 151 0 1
Tulsa 13%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.5 103 B- +3 98 C+ +2 117 0 159 0 1
North Texas 10%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.3 112 C +0 166 B- +3 79 0 159 0 1
Florida Atlantic 9%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +3.0 117 C+ +1 136 C+ +2 106 +5 90 0 1
Charlotte 6%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.6 120 C+ +3 104 C +0 152 +12 19 0 1
Temple 6%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 123 C+ +2 122 C +1 141 0 248 0 1
UAB 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +0.5 147 C+ +2 116 C- -2 219 -6 313 0 1
Tulane 2%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 169 C+ +2 125 D+ -3 262 +3 114 0 1
East Carolina 3%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 171 C +0 173 C- -1 189 -1 269 0 1
Rice 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 241 C- -2 240 D+ -2 246 0 159 0 1
Texas San Antonio 0%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.9 268 C- -2 216 D -4 313 -10 330 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 21 Iowa St. 76 81 Memphis 80   
Mon, Nov 2 89 McNeese St. 99 147 UAB 78   
Mon, Nov 2 120 Charlotte 78 222 Indiana St. 70   
Mon, Nov 2 117 Florida Atlantic 74 253 LIU Brooklyn 60   
Mon, Nov 2 321 Charleston Southern 71 96 South Florida 98   
Mon, Nov 2 169 Tulane 100 283 Tennessee Martin 98   
Mon, Nov 2 158 San Jose St. 95 268 Texas San Antonio 74   
Mon, Nov 2 327 Central Connecticut St. 56 123 Temple 68   
Mon, Nov 2 171 East Carolina 83 345 South Carolina Upstate 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 214 Cal St. Northridge 69 83 Wichita St. 83 89%   
Thu, Nov 5 69 DePaul 76 96 South Florida 71 69%   
Thu, Nov 5 89 McNeese St. 67 112 North Texas 66 52%   
Thu, Nov 5 264 Northern Illinois 69 103 Tulsa 83 89%   
Thu, Nov 5 120 Charlotte 74 230 Georgia St. 64 82%   
Thu, Nov 5 301 Jackson St. 69 169 Tulane 79 82%   
Thu, Nov 5 241 Rice 71 294 East Texas A&M 65 71%   
Fri, Nov 6 117 Florida Atlantic 73 132 Wright St. 75 56%   
Fri, Nov 6 285 Nicholls St. 70 147 UAB 81 84%   
Sat, Nov 7 81 Memphis 78 61 Virginia Commonwealth 77 51%   
Sat, Nov 7 171 East Carolina 70 110 UNC Wilmington 72 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 268 Texas San Antonio 77 330 VMI 70 76%   
Sun, Nov 8 30 USC 78 83 Wichita St. 71 75%   
Sun, Nov 8 119 Richmond 71 123 Temple 70 52%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3 28% 18% 8% 1% 28 18 15 11 10 5 4 4 3 1 1 0
Wichita St. 4 28% 19% 7% 1% 28 17 13 11 10 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1
South Florida 4 20% 12% 6% 1% 20 16 10 13 9 10 7 5 3 2 2 1
Tulsa 5 11% 6% 3% 2% 11 13 15 12 9 10 9 7 3 5 3 2 0
North Texas 5 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 12 11 12 10 8 8 8 5 6 4 4 1
Temple 6 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 11 13 10 11 9 9 8 8 4 5 4 2
Florida Atlantic 6 8% 4% 4% 0% 8 10 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 2
Charlotte 7 5% 2% 2% 0% 5 6 8 6 8 10 11 11 9 10 7 6 3
UAB 7 3% 1% 2% 0% 3 6 7 7 7 9 10 6 11 11 10 8 5
East Carolina 8 2% 1% 0% 1% 2 3 4 7 6 8 9 10 13 10 12 9 7
Tulane 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 7 7 5 9 10 11 13 11 8 12
Rice 10 0% 0% 0 1 1 3 5 5 4 7 11 11 15 17 18
Texas San Antonio 11 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 3 5 7 7 13 15 17 29

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 12 - 6 19 - 12 0 1 1 2 6 7 11 15 17 13 11 9 5 1 0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 20 - 10 0 1 1 1 3 4 10 12 15 14 14 12 7 4 1 1
South Florida 11 - 7 20 - 12 0 0 1 3 4 8 13 14 15 13 12 9 6 2 1 0
Tulsa 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 2 4 5 10 14 14 17 11 12 6 4 0 0
North Texas 10 - 8 18 - 12 0 1 2 3 6 9 10 12 13 15 12 9 4 4 1 1
Temple 10 - 8 16 - 12 1 2 3 6 9 13 13 14 11 12 7 5 2 1 0
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 2 4 8 8 10 13 15 14 9 7 6 2 0 0
Charlotte 9 - 9 17 - 14 0 2 3 8 10 11 16 16 12 8 7 5 2 1
UAB 8 - 10 16 - 15 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 14 11 11 8 5 5 3 1 0
East Carolina 8 - 10 14 - 14 0 1 3 6 10 13 17 15 12 10 7 3 2 1 0 0
Tulane 7 - 11 15 - 16 0 4 4 7 11 11 18 14 11 9 7 3 1 0 0
Rice 6 - 12 11 - 19 0 1 5 9 12 15 15 14 11 6 7 3 1 0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 10 - 20 0 3 9 12 14 18 14 13 8 5 2 1 1 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Memphis 61% 19% 52% 12 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 5 7 19 9 13 1 39
Wichita St. 23% 17% 7% Likely Out 2 1 1 3 2 9 4 77
South Florida 19% 15% 4% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 11 3 1 81
Tulsa 13% 12% 1% Likely Out 6 5 1 87
North Texas 10% 8% 2% Likely Out 1 5 3 1 90
Florida Atlantic 9% 8% 1% Likely Out 1 4 3 91
Charlotte 6% 4% 2% Likely Out 1 3 2 0 94
Temple 6% 5% 1% Likely Out 0 0 1 3 0 1 94
UAB 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 1 96
Tulane 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 0 98
East Carolina 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 97
Rice 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 99
Texas San Antonio 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.6 48 48 5
1st Round 100% 1.5 0 58 38 4
2nd Round 37% 0.4 63 30 6 0
Sweet Sixteen 11% 0.1 89 11 0
Elite Eight 4% 0.0 96 4 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 61% 14% 54% 19% 5% 2%
Wichita St. 23% 3% 22% 7% 3% 1%
South Florida 19% 2% 18% 5% 1%
Tulsa 13% 1% 12% 3% 1%
North Texas 10% 1% 9% 3% 1%
Florida Atlantic 9% 1% 9% 2% 1%
Charlotte 6% 1% 6% 1%
Temple 6% 1% 5% 2%
UAB 4% 4% 1%
Tulane 2% 2%
East Carolina 3% 3%
Rice 1% 1%
Texas San Antonio 0%