Missouri Valley
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Murray St. 33%   13   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 86 B- +4 78 B- +3 89 +9 41 0 1
Illinois-Chicago 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.6 102 C+ +2 108 B- +2 103 0 159 0 1
Illinois St. 13%   Likely Out 0 - 1 0 - 0 +3.2 113 B- +3 99 C +0 147 -3 292 0 1
Belmont 8%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 125 C+ +1 132 C+ +1 126 0 250 0 1
Drake 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 131 C+ +1 129 C +0 151 0 159 0 1
Northern Iowa 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.8 142 C +0 163 C+ +1 127 0 159 0 1
Valparaiso 9%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 145 C +0 167 C+ +1 130 -6 311 0 1
Bradley 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.8 179 C- -2 211 C +0 156 0 159 0 1
Southern Illinois 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.4 193 D+ -4 276 C+ +1 120 0 159 0 1
Indiana St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.8 222 C- -1 195 D+ -2 253 -13 342 0 1
Evansville 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.7 277 D -5 298 C- -2 240 0 159 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 113 Illinois St. 85 88 St. Mary's 90   
Mon, Nov 2 86 Murray St. 94 215 Tennessee St. 64   
Mon, Nov 2 120 Charlotte 78 222 Indiana St. 70   
Mon, Nov 2 125 Belmont 72 329 Southern Indiana 54   
Mon, Nov 2 145 Valparaiso 80 363 Western Illinois 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 28 Purdue 75 145 Valparaiso 58 93%   
Fri, Nov 6 205 Robert Morris 61 102 Illinois-Chicago 72 84%   
Fri, Nov 6 254 Ball St. 68 222 Indiana St. 67 56%   
Fri, Nov 6 281 UMKC 72 193 Southern Illinois 74 56%   
Sat, Nov 7 136 Furman 66 142 Northern Iowa 63 63%   
Sat, Nov 7 86 Murray St. 85 290 Northwestern St. 68 94%   
Sat, Nov 7 179 Bradley 68 141 Pacific 67 51%   
Sat, Nov 7 277 Evansville 70 329 Southern Indiana 66 63%   
Sun, Nov 8 131 Drake 78 296 Southern 66 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Murray St. 3 39% 29% 7% 2% 39 22 16 9 5 3 2 3 1 0 0
Illinois-Chicago 4 22% 16% 5% 1% 22 22 15 9 12 7 6 4 1 1 1
Illinois St. 4 16% 11% 4% 1% 16 16 16 14 10 8 6 6 5 2 1
Belmont 5 11% 6% 3% 1% 11 12 14 12 13 10 8 7 7 4 2
Northern Iowa 5 9% 6% 2% 1% 9 12 12 13 13 8 12 8 6 4 3
Drake 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 11 12 12 10 12 11 9 7 5 2
Valparaiso 5 9% 6% 2% 1% 9 10 10 13 13 11 9 10 8 5 2
Bradley 7 2% 1% 0% 1% 2 4 8 6 9 13 13 11 16 12 7
Southern Illinois 7 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 5 3 7 10 8 14 13 14 14 10
Indiana St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 5 6 8 11 14 15 19 18
Evansville 9 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 6 6 11 15 23 32

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Murray St. 14 - 6 23 - 8 0 0 0 1 3 3 4 7 11 17 14 13 11 8 6 1 0
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 20 - 10 0 1 0 2 4 5 10 13 11 15 12 11 7 6 2 0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 17 - 13 1 0 1 2 4 5 9 10 14 14 12 12 6 6 2 1 1
Belmont 11 - 9 17 - 13 0 1 1 2 3 6 9 11 9 14 14 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 15 - 15 0 1 2 3 3 6 10 11 10 15 12 8 8 5 3 1 1 0
Drake 10 - 10 17 - 14 1 1 3 4 6 10 12 15 12 10 10 8 4 3 1 1
Valparaiso 10 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 1 3 5 8 9 11 12 15 11 9 6 4 3 2 1
Bradley 8 - 12 14 - 16 1 2 5 7 9 13 15 12 13 9 6 5 2 1 0
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 13 - 16 0 1 4 6 11 8 12 13 14 10 7 5 3 4 1 1 0
Indiana St. 7 - 13 10 - 18 1 4 5 10 12 11 12 14 11 8 5 3 2 1
Evansville 6 - 14 9 - 20 0 2 5 11 12 17 15 12 11 6 4 3 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Murray St. 33% 28% 8% 13 Likely Out 1 2 2 1 15 11 1 67
Illinois-Chicago 18% 18% 1% Likely Out 1 3 10 4 1 82
Illinois St. 13% 12% 1% Likely Out 2 6 4 1 87
Belmont 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 1 92
Drake 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 93
Northern Iowa 8% 8% 0% Negligible 0 1 4 2 1 92
Valparaiso 9% 9% 0% Negligible 0 4 3 2 91
Bradley 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 1 2 0 96
Southern Illinois 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 96
Indiana St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 98
Evansville 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 1 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 92 8
1st Round 97% 1.0 3 91 5
2nd Round 20% 0.2 80 19 0
Sweet Sixteen 6% 0.1 94 6
Elite Eight 2% 0.0 98 2
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 33% 4% 32% 8% 2% 1%
Illinois-Chicago 18% 1% 18% 5% 1%
Illinois St. 13% 1% 12% 2% 1%
Belmont 8% 1% 7% 1%
Drake 7% 1% 7% 1%
Northern Iowa 8% 8% 1%
Valparaiso 9% 1% 9% 1%
Bradley 4% 1% 3%
Southern Illinois 4% 1% 3%
Indiana St. 2% 1% 1%
Evansville 2% 1% 1%