Missouri Valley
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Murray St. 30%   13   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 86 B- +4 77 B- +3 90 +9 39 0 1
Illinois-Chicago 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.6 103 C+ +2 110 B- +2 102 0 137 0 1
Illinois St. 13%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +3.2 113 B- +3 100 C +0 147 -3 302 0 1
Belmont 10%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 125 C+ +1 131 C+ +1 125 0 264 0 1
Drake 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 131 C+ +1 129 C +0 151 0 137 0 1
Northern Iowa 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.8 142 C +0 163 C+ +1 126 0 137 0 1
Valparaiso 8%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 145 C +0 167 C+ +1 129 -6 315 0 1
Bradley 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.8 179 C- -2 211 C +0 156 0 137 0 1
Southern Illinois 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.4 193 D+ -4 277 C+ +1 117 0 137 0 1
Indiana St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.8 224 C- -1 194 D+ -2 252 -13 343 0 1
Evansville 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.7 278 D -5 299 C- -2 239 0 137 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 113 Illinois St. 85 88 St. Mary's 90   
Mon, Nov 2 86 Murray St. 94 216 Tennessee St. 64   
Mon, Nov 2 119 Charlotte 78 224 Indiana St. 70   
Mon, Nov 2 125 Belmont 72 329 Southern Indiana 54   
Mon, Nov 2 145 Valparaiso 80 363 Western Illinois 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 27 Purdue 75 145 Valparaiso 58 93%   
Fri, Nov 6 205 Robert Morris 61 103 Illinois-Chicago 72 84%   
Fri, Nov 6 255 Ball St. 68 224 Indiana St. 67 56%   
Fri, Nov 6 281 UMKC 72 193 Southern Illinois 74 56%   
Sat, Nov 7 136 Furman 66 142 Northern Iowa 63 63%   
Sat, Nov 7 86 Murray St. 85 291 Northwestern St. 68 94%   
Sat, Nov 7 179 Bradley 68 141 Pacific 67 51%   
Sat, Nov 7 278 Evansville 70 329 Southern Indiana 66 63%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Murray St. 3 39% 28% 9% 2% 39 21 14 9 6 4 3 2 1 0 0
Illinois-Chicago 4 25% 16% 7% 2% 25 19 14 12 10 7 5 4 2 1 1
Illinois St. 4 16% 9% 5% 2% 16 16 15 13 11 9 8 6 4 2 1
Belmont 5 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 2
Northern Iowa 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 2
Drake 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 2
Valparaiso 5 8% 5% 3% 1% 8 11 11 12 11 11 11 9 8 5 3
Bradley 7 3% 1% 1% 0% 3 4 6 7 9 11 12 13 14 12 9
Southern Illinois 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 7 8 10 12 14 14 13 10
Indiana St. 8 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 6 9 11 13 16 18 15
Evansville 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 4 7 10 15 22 36

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Murray St. 14 - 6 22 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 14 15 14 12 8 4 1 0
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Belmont 11 - 9 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Northern Iowa 11 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 1 1 2 5 7 9 11 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Drake 11 - 9 17 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 13 13 12 10 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Valparaiso 10 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 12 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Bradley 8 - 12 14 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 13 13 11 9 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 13 12 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Indiana St. 7 - 13 10 - 18 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Evansville 6 - 14 9 - 20 1 3 6 11 14 15 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Murray St. 30% 25% 7% 13 Likely Out 1 1 3 1 12 10 2 70
Illinois-Chicago 19% 18% 1% Likely Out 1 4 9 3 1 81
Illinois St. 13% 13% 0% Negligible 2 6 3 1 87
Belmont 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 5 3 1 90
Drake 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 3 1 92
Northern Iowa 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 1 91
Valparaiso 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 2 92
Bradley 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
Southern Illinois 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 97
Indiana St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 0 98
Evansville 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 93 7 0
1st Round 97% 1.0 3 93 4 0
2nd Round 20% 0.2 80 20 0
Sweet Sixteen 5% 0.1 95 5 0
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 30% 4% 28% 8% 2%
Illinois-Chicago 19% 1% 18% 4% 1%
Illinois St. 13% 1% 13% 2% 1%
Belmont 10% 10% 2%
Drake 8% 1% 8% 1%
Northern Iowa 9% 1% 9% 1%
Valparaiso 8% 1% 8% 1%
Bradley 3% 1% 3%
Southern Illinois 3% 1% 3%
Indiana St. 2% 1% 2%
Evansville 1% 1%