Pac-12
2023-24 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Gonzaga 100%   1   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +18.3 9 A +11 5 A- +8 17 +28 4 0 1
Utah St. 49%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.2 53 B+ +7 42 B +4 61 0 261 0 1
San Diego St. 27%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.1 75 B- +4 83 B +4 65 0 137 0 1
Boise St. 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.5 80 B- +3 93 B +4 62 0 137 0 1
Oregon St. 16%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.1 84 B +5 70 B- +2 101 +1 126 0 1
Colorado St. 29%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.1 85 B +5 65 C+ +2 109 +11 24 0 1
Texas St. 5%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +3.2 114 C+ +2 115 C+ +1 124 +6 65 0 1
Washington St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.0 165 C +0 161 C- -1 190 -12 339 0 1
Fresno St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 167 C- -2 206 C +0 143 0 137 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 9 Gonzaga 78 27 Purdue 72   
Mon, Nov 2 85 Colorado St. 84 133 Montana St. 74   
Mon, Nov 2 107 Davidson 76 165 Washington St. 61   
Mon, Nov 2 326 Idaho St. 58 53 Utah St. 94   
Mon, Nov 2 217 TX A&M Corpus Christi 55 114 Texas St. 67   
Mon, Nov 2 84 Oregon St. 102 315 Weber St. 61   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 3 219 Cal St. Fullerton 70 75 San Diego St. 84 91%   
Fri, Nov 6 215 California Baptist 65 84 Oregon St. 79 89%   
Fri, Nov 6 85 Colorado St. 76 239 Idaho 62 91%   
Sat, Nov 7 9 Gonzaga 83 146 New Mexico St. 63 96%   
Sat, Nov 7 77 Colorado 74 75 San Diego St. 75 51%   
Sat, Nov 7 62 High Point 83 165 Washington St. 69 89%   
Sat, Nov 7 288 Nebraska Omaha 61 53 Utah St. 82 97%   
Sat, Nov 7 167 Fresno St. 66 106 UC San Diego 75 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2 69% 55% 12% 2% 69 19 7 3 1 1 0 0 0
Utah St. 3 21% 12% 6% 2% 21 28 20 13 9 5 3 1 0
San Diego St. 4 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 19 19 17 14 10 7 4 1
Boise St. 4 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 14 17 17 15 13 9 5 2
Colorado St. 4 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 13 16 17 16 14 10 6 2
Oregon St. 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 13 16 17 16 14 10 6 3
Texas St. 6 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 7 11 14 17 20 16 10
Washington St. 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 3 5 7 13 19 27 26
Fresno St. 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 4 6 10 16 26 35

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 22 - 6 0 0 0 1 1 4 7 12 19 21 19 12 4
Utah St. 10 - 6 21 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 11 14 17 17 14 9 5 2 0
San Diego St. 9 - 7 16 - 11 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 15 16 15 12 9 4 2 0 0
Boise St. 8 - 8 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 7 10 14 16 16 14 9 6 3 1 0 0
Colorado St. 8 - 8 17 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 16 13 9 5 2 1 0 0
Oregon St. 8 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 16 15 13 9 5 2 1 0 0
Texas St. 6 - 10 17 - 14 0 1 3 7 11 15 17 15 13 9 5 3 1 0 0 0
Washington St. 5 - 11 10 - 21 1 4 10 15 18 18 14 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
Fresno St. 4 - 12 12 - 18 2 6 13 17 18 16 12 8 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Gonzaga 100% 44% 99% 1 Likely In 35 8 11 12 9 8 7 5 3 2
Utah St. 49% 19% 37% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 11 8 51
San Diego St. 27% 11% 18% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 1 73
Boise St. 18% 8% 10% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 4 7 1 82
Oregon St. 16% 8% 9% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 4 6 1 84
Colorado St. 29% 7% 24% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 4 5 6 10 71
Texas St. 5% 3% 2% Likely Out 1 1 3 1 95
Washington St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 0 99
Fresno St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 2.4 10 45 36 9 1 0
1st Round 100% 2.2 17 52 27 4 0 0
2nd Round 90% 1.3 10 55 30 4 0
Sweet Sixteen 55% 0.6 45 48 7 0 0
Elite Eight 29% 0.3 71 28 1 0
Final Four 14% 0.1 86 14 0 0
Final Game 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Champion 3% 0.0 97 3

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100% 99% 80% 45% 23% 11% 6% 3%
Utah St. 49% 16% 42% 21% 8% 4% 1% 1%
San Diego St. 27% 10% 22% 9% 3% 1%
Boise St. 18% 7% 14% 5% 2% 1%
Oregon St. 16% 6% 13% 5% 1%
Colorado St. 29% 13% 23% 8% 3% 1%
Texas St. 5% 2% 4% 1%
Washington St. 1% 1%
Fresno St. 1% 1%