Sun Belt
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
James Madison 15%   16   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.8 162 C+ +1 136 C- -2 222 -11 335 0 1
Arkansas St. 12%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 173 C- -2 208 C +0 148 +10 32 0 1
Marshall 10%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 184 C- -1 187 C- -1 189 +5 74 0 1
Old Dominion 12%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -2.3 189 C- -2 219 C +0 167 +8 52 0 1
Troy 11%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -2.6 197 C- -2 225 C -1 180 -15 349 0 1
Appalachian St. 8%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -3.3 209 D+ -3 261 C +0 158 +10 36 0 1
Georgia St. 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.1 232 C- -1 197 D+ -3 260 -17 355 0 1
Louisiana 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.2 233 D+ -3 264 C- -1 192 -10 333 0 1
Southern Miss 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 238 D+ -3 251 C- -2 221 0 137 0 1
Louisiana Tech 5%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -4.8 245 D+ -3 266 C- -2 220 +10 31 0 1
Coastal Carolina 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.0 251 C- -2 245 D+ -3 258 -18 356 0 1
South Alabama 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -6.0 272 D+ -3 263 D+ -3 268 -16 351 0 1
Georgia Southern 1%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -7.3 290 D -5 310 D+ -2 245 +5 78 0 1
Louisiana Monroe 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -11.3 343 D -5 311 D- -6 357 -21 360 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 162 James Madison 77 102 Miami (OH) 86   
Mon, Nov 2 100 Akron 75 233 Louisiana 61   
Mon, Nov 2 153 Kent St. 75 245 Louisiana Tech 85   
Mon, Nov 2 173 Arkansas St. 71 154 Toledo 70   
Mon, Nov 2 144 Massachusetts 71 197 Troy 60   
Mon, Nov 2 189 Old Dominion 61 186 Western Michigan 49   
Mon, Nov 2 251 Coastal Carolina 70 182 Eastern Michigan 71   
Mon, Nov 2 174 Bowling Green 76 232 Georgia St. 73   
Mon, Nov 2 151 Ohio 86 272 South Alabama 77   
Mon, Nov 2 209 Appalachian St. 63 204 Merrimack 49   
Mon, Nov 2 246 Buffalo 65 184 Marshall 92   
Mon, Nov 2 255 Ball St. 55 290 Georgia Southern 67   
Mon, Nov 2 253 Central Michigan 83 343 Louisiana Monroe 78   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 251 Coastal Carolina 54 1 Duke 86 99%   
Thu, Nov 5 119 Charlotte 74 232 Georgia St. 64 82%   
Thu, Nov 5 201 Jacksonville St. 67 272 South Alabama 66 51%   
Fri, Nov 6 17 Alabama 94 173 Arkansas St. 73 96%   
Fri, Nov 6 162 James Madison 63 25 Kentucky 83 95%   
Fri, Nov 6 21 Iowa St. 84 238 Southern Miss 60 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 56 Florida St. 80 197 Troy 64 93%   
Fri, Nov 6 290 Georgia Southern 71 110 Georgia Tech 85 90%   
Fri, Nov 6 217 TX A&M Corpus Christi 61 233 Louisiana 63 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 184 Marshall 76 154 Toledo 75 53%   
Sat, Nov 7 339 Bucknell 68 189 Old Dominion 73 71%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 5 21% 13% 5% 3% 21 14 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
Arkansas St. 5 19% 12% 5% 3% 19 15 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1
Old Dominion 5 15% 9% 4% 2% 15 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2
Troy 6 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 12 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 2
Marshall 6 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 2
Appalachian St. 6 10% 6% 3% 2% 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 3
Southern Miss 7 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3
Louisiana 7 9% 5% 3% 2% 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4
Georgia St. 7 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4
Louisiana Tech 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5
Coastal Carolina 8 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5
South Alabama 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7
Georgia Southern 10 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 15
Louisiana Monroe 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 11 - 7 17 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 14 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 14 11 8 4 2 1 0
Old Dominion 10 - 8 16 - 13 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 13 14 13 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Troy 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 3 1 0 0
Marshall 9 - 8 15 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Louisiana 9 - 9 12 - 16 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 1 3 6 8 11 14 14 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
South Alabama 8 - 9 12 - 16 0 0 1 3 6 9 13 14 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 11 - 19 0 1 3 6 10 13 14 15 12 10 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0
Louisiana Monroe 6 - 12 7 - 22 0 1 4 8 13 15 16 15 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
James Madison 15% 15% 0% 16 Negligible 2 9 3 85
Arkansas St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 5 6 88
Marshall 10% 10% 0% Negligible 1 4 4 90
Old Dominion 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 88
Troy 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 6 4 89
Appalachian St. 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 4 92
Georgia St. 6% 6% 0% Negligible 3 3 94
Louisiana 6% 6% 0% Negligible 0 3 2 94
Southern Miss 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 1 93
Louisiana Tech 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 0 95
Coastal Carolina 4% 4% 0% Negligible 2 3 96
South Alabama 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 97
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 99
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 75% 0.7 25 75 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 15% 9% 11% 1%
Arkansas St. 12% 3% 11% 1%
Marshall 10% 2% 9% 1%
Old Dominion 12% 3% 10% 1%
Troy 11% 9% 7% 1%
Appalachian St. 8% 2% 7% 1%
Georgia St. 6% 6% 4%
Louisiana 6% 5% 4%
Southern Miss 7% 4% 5%
Louisiana Tech 5% 2% 4%
Coastal Carolina 4% 4% 2%
South Alabama 3% 3% 2%
Georgia Southern 1% 1% 1%
Louisiana Monroe 1% 1%