Carmel
Boys - Girls
2025 - 2026 - 2027
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State Rank #3
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 7.3%
Top 5 at State Finals 87.4%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.4%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Columbus North Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference XC Town Twilight Noblesville JV Invitational Brownsburg JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/5 10/10 10/10 10/17 10/24
Team Rating 136 330 122 120 325 184 218 138 448 329 603 125 115
Team Adjusted Rating 142 122 120 144 115 196 128 136 145 136 125 115
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Columbus North Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference XC Town Twilight Noblesville JV Invitational Brownsburg JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional
11  Jonah Kaul 12 15:41 15:38 15:44 15:37 15:34 15:52 15:30 15:46 15:40
16  Lucas Bartlett 12 15:43 15:34 15:43 15:25 16:20 15:54 15:44 15:35
36  Grant Vannahmen 11 16:02 16:37 16:07 16:07 15:53 16:06 15:57 15:57 15:58
102  Ben Meisner 12 16:28 16:34 16:10 16:19 16:54 17:08 16:30 16:19
114  Carter Kellett 10 16:32 16:31 16:40 16:29 16:27 16:42 16:17 16:26 16:31 16:41
119  Trevor Walton 12 16:34 17:28 16:59 17:02 17:08 16:49 16:38 16:20 16:25
132  Henry Nolan 10 16:38 17:23 16:37 16:35 16:33 16:40 16:33 16:40 16:32
190  Zachary Judy 12 16:52 17:18 16:53 16:36 16:30 16:49 17:06 16:54
219  Grant Parkevich 11 16:57 16:58 16:49 16:34 17:09 16:56 17:02 16:46 17:14 17:23
221  Graham Moore 10 16:57 17:25 17:22 16:49 17:39 16:49 16:59 16:39 16:59 16:43 17:00
234  Nolan Whetstone 10 17:01 18:15 16:49 17:07 16:51 17:17 16:59 16:53 17:07 16:50
238  Cooper Szotek 12 17:01 16:40 17:16 16:34 17:10 17:08 17:19 16:38
248  Cameron Scher-Millan 11 17:02 16:57 21:24 17:21 21:02 20:47 20:21 16:52 20:01
332  Jack Sims 12 17:14 17:53 17:20 17:24 17:05 17:07 16:56 17:09 17:33 17:07
349  Ren Yamada 9 17:15 17:00 17:23 19:36 17:04 17:19 17:08 17:10 18:33 17:48
359  Charlie Moon 9 17:17 17:00 17:15 17:12 17:17 17:22 17:11 17:21 17:28 17:07
368  Nate Gaddy 12 17:18 17:22 17:12 17:33 17:16 16:54 16:54 18:01 17:20
461  Easton Ulery 11 17:30 18:10 17:43 18:04 18:04 17:21 18:41 17:08 17:08 17:17 17:28
544  Kerolos Khalil 12 17:39 17:36 17:35 17:50 17:56 17:12 18:06 17:27 17:31
570  Henry Lewis 10 17:41 17:43 17:11 17:10 17:25 18:01 18:01 17:54
572  Nixon Trisler 11 17:41 17:39 17:36 17:30 18:19 17:23 17:31 18:01
682  Caden Wolpert 9 17:54 18:28 18:18 17:51 17:36 17:50 17:40
694  Cameron Kenney 9 17:55 17:36 17:56 18:17 17:54 17:59 17:57 17:48 17:41
716  Kian Marsden 11 17:58 18:44 19:01 18:25 18:05 17:38 17:47 17:39 17:29
724  Luke Lory 12 17:59 17:48 17:30 17:40 18:09 17:41 17:55 18:02 18:25 18:22
735  Emil Borrisov 9 18:00 18:03 18:21 17:56 18:00 17:57 17:54 18:03 17:48
747  Fletcher Jay 10 18:01 17:51 18:06 18:03 17:56 17:49 17:41 18:12 18:13 17:54 18:10
763  Drew Kuykendall 11 18:02 17:44 17:26 17:32 17:41 17:34 18:10 18:07 18:22 18:43 18:30
888  Bryce Bontrager 11 18:14 18:31 18:12 18:25 18:22 18:14 18:41 18:03 18:18 17:56 17:48
928  Noah Barrett 11 18:18 18:12 18:20 18:10 18:21 18:07 18:26 18:22 18:15
961  Ryu Yamada 9 18:20 18:16 18:24 18:27 18:35 18:01 18:36 18:07 18:20 18:08
981  Sidharth Eswaran 11 18:21 18:12 19:25 18:05 19:01 18:17
991  Jaxson Kazak 9 18:22 18:17 18:18 18:22 18:09 18:38 18:21
998  Nathan Yang 12 18:22 18:16 18:35 18:37 18:54 18:20 18:12 18:13 18:47 18:06 17:56
1,003  Sawyer Hargrove 10 18:23 18:16 18:24 18:37 18:15 18:17 18:35 18:15 18:12 18:24
1,021  Trey Courtney 9 18:24 18:35 18:07 18:02 17:48 18:54 18:19 18:01 18:44 19:26
1,047  Neil Adesara 12 18:27 18:04 18:52 18:02 18:51 18:42 18:36 18:18 18:14 18:11 18:32
1,120  Gavin Smith 9 18:32 18:18 18:22 18:38 18:28 18:34 18:45 18:41 18:17
1,157  Griffin Jay 12 18:34 18:22 18:29 18:40 18:25 19:03 18:30 18:41 18:29 18:23
1,158  Porter Barry 9 18:34 18:34
1,199  Marcus Primason 12 18:38 18:50 19:10 18:43 19:35 18:34 18:33 18:08 17:59
1,203  Hudson Keetle 11 18:38 18:16 18:26 19:00 18:15 18:38 18:28 18:35 19:01 19:02
1,238  Oscar Wiley 11 18:41 18:33 18:56 19:24 18:43 19:01 18:27 18:35 18:21 18:33
1,262  Gabe Brigham 12 18:43 18:53 18:56 18:39 18:48 18:32 18:32 18:42 18:37 18:45
1,265  Nolan Carson 11 18:43 19:28 19:03 19:14 19:03 18:49 18:31 18:18 18:26 18:12
1,295  Christian Block 11 18:45 18:27 18:30 19:12
1,306  Quinn Sullivan 12 18:46 18:32
1,314  Joey Palumbo 9 18:47 18:49 18:35 18:30 19:15 18:35 18:55
1,349  Luke Lehman 9 18:49 19:04 19:01 18:59 18:15 19:11 18:47 18:27 19:01 18:36
1,350  Marcus Lord 9 18:50 18:42 18:41 18:46 18:52 18:59
1,353  Isaiah Thompson 9 18:50 18:38 19:10 18:38 19:22 18:26 19:06 18:37 18:45
1,374  Tommy Moehl 10 18:52 20:53 19:38 19:12 18:40 19:16 18:51 19:00 18:03 18:23
1,422  Luke Abbott 11 18:56 19:27 19:32 18:55 18:57 19:13 18:44 18:37 18:47 18:38
1,464  Quinn Riley 10 18:59 19:08 19:37 18:39 18:47 18:52 18:58 18:55 18:56 19:03
Ian Stephenson 12 19:01 19:50 20:19 19:05 18:53 18:58 18:53 18:45 19:05
Pranad Sowale 11 19:02 18:26 19:15 18:47 19:39 19:05 18:45
Drew Thorne 9 19:03 19:12 18:33 18:58 18:38 19:02 19:02 19:14 18:59 19:36
Will Heckaman 11 19:06 18:57 18:57 19:11 19:14 19:35 18:46
Suthirth Muddam 11 19:07 18:39 18:41 20:05 20:54 20:05 19:01 18:41
John Norton 12 19:10 19:04 19:09 19:05 19:11 19:35 18:44 19:15
Ben Snyder 12 19:17 18:40 19:49 19:18 19:36 20:06 19:16 18:51 18:39 20:48
Josh Kim 11 19:22 18:55 19:17 19:31 19:11 19:40 19:29
Skye Curry 9 19:23 19:35 19:29 19:26 18:38 20:43 20:36 19:04 19:35 19:04
Nathan Dsouza 9 19:57 19:32 19:52 18:54 18:34 20:08 20:16 20:21 20:35
Eric Hwang 10 21:12 20:43 21:34 21:28 22:00 21:19




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 3.6 164 7.3 20.2 27.6 20.8 11.5 6.0 2.9 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.3 57 71.4 24.2 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 95.4 4.5 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 14.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 100.0%
Lucas Bartlett 100% 16.3 0.5 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.2 3.7 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.0 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 39.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 100.0%
Ben Meisner 100% 100.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
Carter Kellett 100% 109.9 79.4%
Trevor Walton 100% 116.5 73.1%
Henry Nolan 100% 126.4 63.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 1.6 32.6 28.0 16.2 10.3 5.5 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Lucas Bartlett 100% 2.0 22.3 28.0 19.1 11.4 7.8 4.7 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 7.4 0.0 0.6 5.3 9.0 10.3 10.8 10.3 10.0 8.8 6.6 5.2 4.7 4.1 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Ben Meisner 100% 23.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.2 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.2 100.0%
Carter Kellett 100% 26.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 4.0 3.9 4.6 4.4 5.2 4.3 100.0%
Trevor Walton 100% 28.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.2 100.0%
Henry Nolan 100% 31.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6 3.8 4.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 1.3 39.6 33.5 18.5 7.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
Lucas Bartlett 1.6 26.4 37.9 23.7 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
Grant Vannahmen 4.2 0.1 0.8 12.5 28.5 37.0 16.3 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ben Meisner 8.3 0.2 1.6 9.1 18.1 16.6 14.1 9.7 8.2 5.4 4.1 3.2 2.9 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Carter Kellett 9.6 0.0 0.7 4.8 10.3 13.1 13.1 12.3 9.7 7.9 6.2 5.2 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Trevor Walton 10.7 0.3 2.5 6.3 9.8 12.4 11.7 10.1 9.5 8.1 7.1 4.7 4.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2
Henry Nolan 12.2 0.2 1.0 3.2 5.3 7.6 10.7 11.0 9.0 8.9 7.4 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.5 3.5 3.1 2.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.5