Carmel
Boys - Girls
2025 - 2026 - 2027
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State Rank #4
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 4th place at State Finals
State Champion 3.7%
Top 5 at State Finals 75.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 97.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Columbus North Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference XC Town Twilight
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3
Team Rating 155 358 139 138 343 207 237 144
Team Adjusted Rating 163 139 138 164 133 213 137
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Columbus North Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference XC Town Twilight
15  Jonah Kaul 12 15:43 15:38 15:48 15:42 15:39 15:55 15:31
20  Lucas Bartlett 12 15:50 15:34 15:47 15:29 16:24 15:55
48  Grant Vannahmen 11 16:09 16:37 16:11 16:12 15:58 16:11 15:58
104  Ben Meisner 12 16:32 16:34 16:14 16:24 16:58
105  Carter Kellett 10 16:34 16:31 16:45 16:34 16:32 16:46 16:23 16:27
136  Henry Nolan 10 16:43 17:23 16:42 16:40 16:39 16:43 16:38 16:41
175  Zachary Judy 12 16:54 17:18 16:58 16:41 16:35 16:53 17:10
197  Grant Parkevich 11 16:58 16:58 16:54 16:39 17:13 17:02 17:07 16:47
211  Trevor Walton 12 17:02 17:28 17:04 17:08 17:14 16:54 16:39
239  Graham Moore 10 17:06 17:25 17:28 16:54 17:45 16:53 17:05 16:41
242  Nolan Whetstone 10 17:07 18:15 16:54 17:13 16:55 17:23 17:03 16:58
253  Cameron Scher-Millan 11 17:08 16:57 17:28 17:07 16:57
275  Cooper Szotek 12 17:11 16:40 17:22 16:39 17:16 17:13 17:21
314  Ren Yamada 9 17:16 17:05 17:28 19:44 17:08 17:25 17:13 17:15
323  Nate Gaddy 12 17:18 17:28 17:17 17:39 17:21 16:59 16:59
324  Jack Sims 12 17:18 17:53 17:25 17:30 17:09 17:13 17:00 17:13
342  Charlie Moon 9 17:20 17:05 17:20 17:18 17:21 17:28 17:16 17:26
430  Henry Lewis 10 17:32 17:43 17:16 17:15 17:31 18:05
545  Nixon Trisler 11 17:45 17:39 17:42 17:35 18:26 17:27 17:38 18:06
581  Kerolos Khalil 12 17:49 17:36 17:40 17:56 18:03 17:17 18:11
595  Easton Ulery 11 17:50 18:10 17:49 18:09 18:11 17:25 18:49 17:13 17:13
614  Drew Kuykendall 11 17:53 17:44 17:32 17:37 17:47 17:38 18:16 18:13 18:26
619  Luke Lory 12 17:54 17:48 17:35 17:45 18:15 17:45 18:00 18:06
685  Caden Wolpert 9 18:01 18:34 18:24 17:58 17:41 17:57 17:45
695  Cameron Kenney 9 18:03 17:42 18:02 18:23 17:58 18:06 18:03
707  Fletcher Jay 10 18:05 17:51 18:12 18:08 18:03 17:54 17:47 18:17 18:16
738  Emil Borrisov 9 18:08 18:09 18:27 18:03 18:05 18:03 18:00 18:06
864  Trey Courtney 9 18:19 18:41 18:13 18:09 17:53 19:02 18:24 18:05
886  Noah Barrett 11 18:22 18:18 18:27 18:14 18:28 18:12 18:30
887  Kian Marsden 11 18:22 18:51 19:07 18:30 18:12 17:43 17:52
936  Sidharth Eswaran 11 18:26 18:18 19:33 18:10 19:09 18:22
941  Bryce Bontrager 11 18:26 18:31 18:18 18:30 18:28 18:19 18:48 18:08 18:21
957  Jaxson Kazak 9 18:27 18:23 18:24 18:29 18:14 18:46 18:26
963  Ryu Yamada 9 18:28 18:22 18:30 18:34 18:39 18:08 18:42 18:11
984  Sawyer Hargrove 10 18:29 18:22 18:30 18:44 18:19 18:24 18:41 18:18
1,052  Neil Adesara 12 18:35 18:04 18:59 18:08 18:59 18:47 18:43 18:23 18:18
1,059  Nathan Yang 12 18:35 18:16 18:41 18:43 19:01 18:25 18:19 18:19 18:51
1,073  Hudson Keetle 11 18:36 18:22 18:32 19:08 18:20 18:45 18:33 18:38
1,087  Gavin Smith 9 18:37 18:24 18:28 18:45 18:35 18:39 18:49
1,127  Porter Barry 9 18:41 18:40
1,138  Griffin Jay 12 18:41 18:22 18:35 18:47 18:30 19:11 18:35 18:45
1,184  Quinn Sullivan 12 18:46 18:32
1,228  Christian Block 11 18:50 18:27 18:37 19:18
1,230  Gabe Brigham 12 18:50 18:59 19:02 18:46 18:53 18:39 18:37 18:45
1,266  Joey Palumbo 9 18:52 18:55 18:41 18:37 19:20 18:42 19:01
1,280  Oscar Wiley 11 18:53 18:39 19:02 19:31 18:48 19:09 18:33 18:39
1,291  Marcus Lord 9 18:54 18:48 18:47 18:51 18:59 19:05
1,323  Marcus Primason 12 18:57 18:56 19:17 18:48 19:43 18:40 18:36
1,324  Luke Lehman 9 18:57 19:11 19:08 19:07 18:20 19:19 18:53 18:31
1,342  Isaiah Thompson 9 18:58 18:45 19:17 18:43 19:30 18:32 19:10
Thomas Moehl 10 19:02 18:45 19:24 18:57 19:04
Nolan Carson 11 19:02 19:35 19:10 19:22 19:08 18:57 18:37 18:22
Drew Thorne 9 19:04 19:19 18:39 19:06 18:43 19:10 19:08 19:18
Quinn Riley 10 19:04 19:15 19:44 18:46 18:52 19:00 19:03 18:59
Luke Abbott 11 19:09 19:34 19:39 19:03 19:02 19:21 18:50 18:40
Pranad Sowale 11 19:12 18:26 19:22 18:52 19:47 19:09
Will Heckaman 11 19:13 18:57 19:03 19:18 19:22 19:41 18:52
John Norton 12 19:19 19:04 19:15 19:13 19:17 19:39
Ben Snyder 12 19:25 18:40 19:56 19:25 19:43 19:22 18:54
Skye Curry 9 19:31 19:42 19:36 19:34 18:43 20:52 20:43 19:08
Nathan Dsouza 9 19:44 19:40 19:59 19:01 18:39 20:15 20:21
Suthirth Muddam 11 20:01 18:39 18:48 20:11 21:04 20:11
Eric Hwang 10 21:14 20:51 21:44 18:16 22:10 21:26




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 4.5 178 3.7 11.1 21.1 23.1 16.7 9.7 5.7 3.5 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.6 65 56.3 30.4 9.6 3.1 0.5
Sectionals 100% 1.1 27 95.1 4.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 14.4 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.8 4.5 3.8 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 100.0%
Lucas Bartlett 100% 21.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.1 3.5 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.2 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 48.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 99.9%
Ben Meisner 100% 101.9 91.5%
Carter Kellett 100% 106.4 0.0 89.1%
Henry Nolan 100% 130.6 66.8%
Zachary Judy 100% 157.5 32.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 1.6 34.0 27.5 15.3 8.8 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Lucas Bartlett 100% 3.0 7.4 20.6 21.7 13.7 10.2 8.2 5.8 3.6 2.8 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 10.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.0 5.9 6.7 7.7 7.8 8.1 7.4 7.5 6.8 6.1 6.1 4.5 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 100.0%
Ben Meisner 100% 23.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.1 4.1 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.5 6.0 100.0%
Carter Kellett 100% 25.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.5 5.2 6.0 100.0%
Henry Nolan 100% 32.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.7 100.0%
Zachary Judy 100% 42.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 1.3 37.8 40.0 18.0 3.8 0.5
Lucas Bartlett 2.3 9.8 28.8 40.8 18.1 2.3 0.2 0.0
Grant Vannahmen 4.4 0.0 0.3 5.1 28.3 41.4 18.4 4.6 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ben Meisner 7.9 0.1 1.8 11.4 19.2 20.3 14.1 10.6 7.8 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Carter Kellett 8.4 0.0 1.5 7.6 15.5 19.2 17.0 11.5 8.5 6.1 4.5 2.7 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Henry Nolan 11.3 0.1 0.8 2.7 6.3 11.1 13.7 12.1 10.4 8.6 7.4 6.3 5.0 4.3 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2
Zachary Judy 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 5.9 7.1 7.9 8.3 7.8 8.8 7.7 7.3 7.0 5.6 5.3 4.6 3.3 2.5 1.7