Carmel
Boys - Girls
2025 - 2026 - 2027
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State Rank #3
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 11.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 94.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Columbus North Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference XC Town Twilight Noblesville JV Invitational Brownsburg JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/5 10/10 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31
Team Rating 114 330 121 120 323 182 218 138 446 328 601 124 113 95
Team Adjusted Rating 114 121 120 114 95 218 113 114 138 114 124 113 95
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Columbus North Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference XC Town Twilight Noblesville JV Invitational Brownsburg JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
7  Lucas Bartlett 12 15:33 15:34 15:43 15:24 16:20 15:54 15:43 15:35 15:26
10  Jonah Kaul 12 15:36 15:38 15:44 15:37 15:34 15:52 15:30 15:45 15:39 15:30
36  Grant Vannahmen 11 16:00 16:37 16:07 16:07 15:53 16:06 15:57 15:56 15:57 15:57
65  Ben Meisner 12 16:14 16:34 16:10 16:18 16:54 17:08 16:29 16:19 16:07
113  Trevor Walton 12 16:31 17:28 16:59 17:02 17:08 16:49 16:38 16:20 16:25 16:25
121  Carter Kellett 10 16:34 16:31 16:40 16:29 16:27 16:42 16:17 16:26 16:30 16:40 16:41
136  Henry Nolan 10 16:38 17:23 16:37 16:35 16:33 16:39 16:32 16:40 16:31 16:44
187  Zachary Judy 12 16:50 17:18 16:53 16:36 16:30 16:49 17:06 16:54
215  Graham Moore 10 16:55 17:25 17:22 16:49 17:39 16:49 16:58 16:39 16:59 16:42 16:59
229  Grant Parkevich 11 16:58 16:58 16:49 16:34 17:08 16:56 17:02 16:46 17:14 17:22
237  Nolan Whetstone 10 16:59 18:15 16:48 17:07 16:51 17:16 16:58 16:53 17:06 16:49
252  Cameron Scher-Millan 11 17:02 16:57 21:24 17:21 21:01 20:46 20:21 16:52 20:00
256  Cooper Szotek 12 17:02 16:40 17:16 16:33 17:10 17:08 17:19 16:38
325  Jack Sims 12 17:12 17:53 17:20 17:23 17:04 17:06 16:56 17:08 17:33 17:07
355  Ren Yamada 9 17:16 17:00 17:23 19:36 17:04 17:18 17:08 17:09 18:33 17:48
364  Charlie Moon 9 17:17 17:00 17:15 17:12 17:17 17:21 17:11 17:21 17:28 17:07
378  Nate Gaddy 12 17:18 17:22 17:12 17:32 17:16 16:54 16:54 18:01 17:20
443  Easton Ulery 11 17:27 18:10 17:43 18:03 18:04 17:20 18:40 17:08 17:08 17:17 17:28
552  Kerolos Khalil 12 17:40 17:36 17:34 17:50 17:56 17:12 18:05 17:27 17:31
582  Nixon Trisler 11 17:42 17:39 17:36 17:29 18:18 17:23 17:31 18:01
603  Henry Lewis 10 17:44 17:43 17:11 17:10 17:24 18:01 18:01 17:54
662  Kian Marsden 11 17:51 18:44 19:00 18:25 18:04 17:38 17:46 17:39 17:29
679  Caden Wolpert 9 17:52 18:28 18:18 17:51 17:36 17:49 17:40
694  Cameron Kenney 9 17:54 17:36 17:56 18:16 17:53 17:59 17:57 17:47 17:41
723  Emil Borrisov 9 17:59 18:03 18:21 17:56 18:00 17:56 17:54 18:02 17:47
750  Luke Lory 12 18:01 17:48 17:29 17:40 18:08 17:40 17:55 18:02 18:25 18:22
753  Fletcher Jay 10 18:02 17:51 18:06 18:02 17:56 17:49 17:40 18:12 18:12 17:53 18:10
807  Drew Kuykendall 11 18:06 17:44 17:26 17:31 17:40 17:34 18:09 18:07 18:22 18:42 18:29
871  Bryce Bontrager 11 18:12 18:31 18:12 18:24 18:21 18:14 18:40 18:03 18:17 17:56 17:47
933  Noah Barrett 11 18:17 18:12 18:20 18:09 18:20 18:07 18:26 18:22 18:14
960  Ryu Yamada 9 18:19 18:16 18:24 18:26 18:34 18:00 18:36 18:07 18:20 18:07
983  Sidharth Eswaran 11 18:21 18:12 19:25 18:05 19:00 18:17
991  Jaxson Kazak 9 18:22 18:17 18:18 18:21 18:09 18:38 18:21
992  Nathan Yang 12 18:22 18:16 18:34 18:36 18:53 18:20 18:12 18:13 18:47 18:05 17:56
1,003  Sawyer Hargrove 10 18:22 18:16 18:23 18:36 18:14 18:17 18:35 18:14 18:12 18:24
1,023  Trey Courtney 9 18:24 18:34 18:07 18:02 17:48 18:53 18:19 18:01 18:44 19:25
1,048  Neil Adesara 12 18:27 18:04 18:52 18:02 18:51 18:42 18:35 18:18 18:14 18:11 18:31
1,118  Gavin Smith 9 18:32 18:17 18:22 18:37 18:28 18:34 18:44 18:40 18:16
1,156  Porter Barry 9 18:35 18:34
1,157  Griffin Jay 12 18:35 18:22 18:29 18:40 18:25 19:02 18:29 18:40 18:29 18:22
1,176  Marcus Primason 12 18:36 18:50 19:09 18:42 19:34 18:34 18:32 18:07 17:59
1,203  Hudson Keetle 11 18:39 18:16 18:26 19:00 18:15 18:37 18:28 18:34 19:00 19:02
1,222  Oscar Wiley 11 18:40 18:32 18:55 19:23 18:43 19:00 18:27 18:35 18:21 18:32
1,228  Nolan Carson 11 18:41 19:28 19:03 19:14 19:02 18:48 18:31 18:18 18:26 18:12
1,250  Gabe Brigham 12 18:42 18:52 18:55 18:38 18:48 18:32 18:32 18:41 18:37 18:44
1,313  Joey Palumbo 9 18:47 18:48 18:35 18:29 19:14 18:34 18:55
1,315  Quinn Sullivan 12 18:47 18:32
1,335  Luke Lehman 9 18:48 19:04 19:01 18:59 18:15 19:10 18:47 18:26 19:01 18:35
1,346  Isaiah Thompson 9 18:49 18:38 19:10 18:38 19:21 18:26 19:06 18:36 18:45
1,352  Marcus Lord 9 18:50 18:42 18:41 18:45 18:51 18:59
1,354  Tommy Moehl 10 18:50 20:52 19:38 19:11 18:40 19:15 18:51 19:00 18:03 18:23
1,397  Christian Block 11 18:54 18:27 18:30 19:12
1,400  Luke Abbott 11 18:54 19:26 19:32 18:55 18:57 19:12 18:44 18:36 18:46 18:37
1,458  Quinn Riley 10 18:59 19:07 19:37 18:38 18:47 18:52 18:57 18:54 18:55 19:03
Ian Stephenson 12 19:00 19:49 20:18 19:04 18:53 18:58 18:52 18:45 19:04
Drew Thorne 9 19:04 19:12 18:32 18:58 18:38 19:01 19:02 19:13 18:59 19:36
Pranad Sowale 11 19:04 18:26 19:15 18:46 19:38 19:05 18:45
Will Heckaman 11 19:08 18:57 18:56 19:11 19:14 19:35 18:46
Suthirth Muddam 11 19:09 18:39 18:41 20:04 20:53 20:04 19:00 18:41
John Norton 12 19:11 19:04 19:08 19:04 19:10 19:34 18:44 19:15
Ben Snyder 12 19:17 18:40 19:48 19:18 19:35 20:06 19:16 18:50 18:39 20:47
Skye Curry 9 19:22 19:35 19:29 19:25 18:38 20:42 20:35 19:04 19:35 19:04
Josh Kim 11 19:23 18:55 19:17 19:30 19:10 19:39 19:28
Nathan Dsouza 9 19:59 19:32 19:52 18:53 18:34 20:08 20:16 20:21 20:34
Eric Hwang 10 21:13 20:43 21:33 21:28 21:59 21:19




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 2.9 142 11.1 32.3 29.3 15.1 6.9 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.2 48 82.0 16.0 1.8 0.2 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 25 98.5 1.5



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucas Bartlett 100% 9.3 0.2 4.2 6.2 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 5.8 6.3 4.8 5.1 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 100.0%
Jonah Kaul 100% 11.9 0.0 1.6 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.6 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.5 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 38.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.0 100.0%
Ben Meisner 100% 64.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 99.3%
Trevor Walton 100% 111.4 82.2%
Carter Kellett 100% 117.3 76.8%
Henry Nolan 100% 130.4 64.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucas Bartlett 100% 1.0 51.6 28.2 10.5 5.0 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jonah Kaul 100% 1.6 24.1 41.4 16.8 9.0 4.5 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Grant Vannahmen 100% 6.9 0.1 6.4 10.0 11.4 11.7 11.1 9.2 7.7 6.7 5.3 4.6 3.5 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Ben Meisner 100% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.0 3.8 4.3 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.1 7.1 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.5 4.5 4.5 3.6 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.8 100.0%
Trevor Walton 100% 26.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 100.0%
Carter Kellett 100% 27.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.3 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.5 100.0%
Henry Nolan 100% 31.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucas Bartlett 1.0 54.3 33.8 9.2 2.5 0.2
Jonah Kaul 1.5 27.0 46.6 19.5 6.4 0.4 0.0
Grant Vannahmen 4.2 0.0 0.4 15.2 28.9 34.5 16.1 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ben Meisner 6.0 0.5 3.6 13.5 31.7 30.9 10.7 4.4 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Trevor Walton 9.6 0.2 1.5 6.9 15.5 17.1 14.1 10.5 7.8 6.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 2.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2
Carter Kellett 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.1 12.8 15.2 13.5 10.6 9.0 7.6 5.4 5.6 4.1 3.4 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2
Henry Nolan 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 8.6 11.9 11.3 9.9 9.1 8.1 6.9 5.6 5.0 4.2 3.6 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.5