Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
13 SMU 100.0%   4   30 - 4 17 - 1 30 - 4 17 - 1 +17.7      +11.2 13 +6.5 37 59.4 333 +17.6 13 +22.7 1
24 Cincinnati 99.5%   6   29 - 5 16 - 2 29 - 5 16 - 2 +15.5      +6.5 39 +9.0 14 61.2 318 +17.2 17 +18.7 2
53 Houston 7.8%   21 - 10 12 - 6 21 - 10 12 - 6 +10.0      +5.9 44 +4.1 68 62.8 290 +8.7 65 +10.2 3
68 Central Florida 1.8%   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +8.0      -0.2 170 +8.1 21 62.7 295 +7.8 71 +7.8 4
84 Connecticut 0.0%   15 - 17 9 - 9 15 - 17 9 - 9 +5.8      +1.0 143 +4.8 58 62.5 303 +4.3 104 +5.8 5
92 Memphis 0.0%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +4.9      +2.2 110 +2.7 92 68.4 157 +5.9 90 +4.7 6
107 Temple 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 11 16 - 16 7 - 11 +3.5      +2.1 114 +1.4 124 67.8 175 +3.3 113 +1.5 8
126 Tulsa 0.0%   15 - 17 8 - 10 15 - 17 8 - 10 +2.0      +0.3 159 +1.7 115 68.1 167 +3.1 115 +3.8 7
159 East Carolina 0.0%   15 - 18 6 - 12 15 - 18 6 - 12 +0.4      -4.4 281 +4.8 59 65.0 248 0.0 159 +0.1 9
223 Tulane 0.0%   6 - 25 3 - 15 6 - 25 3 - 15 -3.9      -1.5 209 -2.4 239 73.0 59 -7.5 279 -5.6 10
279 South Florida 0.0%   7 - 23 1 - 17 7 - 23 1 - 17 -7.4      -5.6 308 -1.8 224 68.7 145 -7.2 273 -12.3 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
SMU 1.0 100.0
Cincinnati 2.0 100.0
Houston 3.0 100.0
Central Florida 4.0 100.0
Connecticut 5.0 100.0
Memphis 5.0 100.0
Temple 8.0 100.0
Tulsa 7.0 100.0
East Carolina 9.0 100.0
Tulane 10.0 100.0
South Florida 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
SMU 17 - 1 100.0
Cincinnati 16 - 2 100.0
Houston 12 - 6 100.0
Central Florida 11 - 7 100.0
Connecticut 9 - 9 100.0
Memphis 9 - 9 100.0
Temple 7 - 11 100.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 100.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 100.0
Tulane 3 - 15 100.0
South Florida 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
SMU 100.0% 100.0
Cincinnati
Houston
Central Florida
Connecticut
Memphis
Temple
Tulsa
East Carolina
Tulane
South Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
SMU 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   1.8 5.3 18.5 36.5 25.3 11.0 1.6 0.0
Cincinnati 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 6   0.0 0.1 2.2 11.2 29.0 39.4 15.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 99.5%
Houston 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0 1.4 6.3 0.1 92.2 7.8%
Central Florida 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.3 1.5 0.0 98.2 1.8%
Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
SMU 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 85.1% 49.8% 22.9% 10.8% 4.9% 2.1%
Cincinnati 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 68.5% 30.6% 12.2% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6%
Houston 7.8% 7.7% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 0.5 90.1 9.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.5 95.4 4.1
2nd Round 95.4% 1.5 4.6 36.6 58.2 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 66.2% 0.8 33.8 51.7 14.5 0.0
Elite Eight 32.5% 0.4 67.5 29.9 2.6
Final Four 15.1% 0.2 84.9 14.6 0.5
Final Game 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.4 0.1
Champion 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6