Pre-tourney Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#24
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#17
Pace61.2#318
Improvement-1.1#229

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#39
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#10
Layup/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#206
Freethrows+0.0#174
Improvement+0.4#158

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#14
First Shot+7.3#16
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#27
Layups/Dunks+5.3#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#202
Freethrows+2.2#56
Improvement-1.4#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 13.5% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 81.9% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% n/a n/a
Average Seed 5.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.5% n/a n/a
Second Round68.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen30.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight12.2% n/a n/a
Final Four4.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game1.7% n/a n/a
National Champion0.6% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 278   Brown W 84-55 98%     1 - 0 +19.3 +10.6 +11.2
  Nov 14, 2016 134   Albany W 74-51 93%     2 - 0 +22.0 +7.0 +17.1
  Nov 19, 2016 49   Rhode Island L 71-76 67%     2 - 1 +5.9 +13.1 -7.8
  Nov 20, 2016 79   Penn St. W 71-50 81%     3 - 1 +27.3 +6.8 +21.2
  Nov 23, 2016 162   Samford W 70-55 94%     4 - 1 +12.6 +1.8 +12.5
  Nov 26, 2016 164   Lipscomb W 91-68 94%     5 - 1 +20.6 +9.2 +10.0
  Dec 01, 2016 17   @ Iowa St. W 55-54 OT 33%     6 - 1 +21.1 -1.9 +23.1
  Dec 04, 2016 239   Bowling Green W 85-56 97%     7 - 1 +21.7 +17.2 +7.2
  Dec 10, 2016 26   @ Butler L 65-75 41%     7 - 2 +7.8 +3.6 +3.6
  Dec 13, 2016 220   Texas Southern W 96-58 97%     8 - 2 +31.7 +17.9 +13.0
  Dec 17, 2016 277   Fairleigh Dickinson W 119-68 98%     9 - 2 +41.4 +24.4 +10.5
  Dec 22, 2016 155   Marshall W 93-91 OT 94%     10 - 2 +0.0 +2.8 -3.1
  Dec 28, 2016 107   @ Temple W 56-50 81%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +12.0 -13.0 +25.2
  Jan 01, 2017 223   Tulane W 92-56 97%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +29.6 +12.3 +16.0
  Jan 07, 2017 53   @ Houston W 67-58 61%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +21.6 +5.6 +16.8
  Jan 12, 2017 13   SMU W 66-64 51%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +17.2 +13.4 +4.3
  Jan 15, 2017 159   @ East Carolina W 55-46 88%     15 - 2 5 - 0 +12.0 -4.6 +17.7
  Jan 18, 2017 107   Temple W 81-74 91%     16 - 2 6 - 0 +8.0 +14.4 -5.9
  Jan 21, 2017 223   @ Tulane W 78-61 93%     17 - 2 7 - 0 +15.7 +11.4 +5.8
  Jan 26, 2017 41   Xavier W 86-78 74%     18 - 2 +16.8 +24.5 -6.8
  Jan 29, 2017 279   South Florida W 94-53 98%     19 - 2 8 - 0 +31.1 +18.4 +12.8
  Feb 01, 2017 126   @ Tulsa W 57-55 85%     20 - 2 9 - 0 +6.5 -1.1 +8.1
  Feb 04, 2017 84   Connecticut W 82-68 87%     21 - 2 10 - 0 +17.3 +17.1 +0.9
  Feb 08, 2017 68   Central Florida W 60-50 83%     22 - 2 11 - 0 +15.4 +2.6 +14.3
  Feb 12, 2017 13   @ SMU L 51-60 32%     22 - 3 11 - 1 +11.3 +3.3 +4.9
  Feb 15, 2017 279   @ South Florida W 68-54 96%     23 - 3 12 - 1 +9.1 +3.2 +7.7
  Feb 18, 2017 126   Tulsa W 80-60 92%     24 - 3 13 - 1 +19.4 +16.0 +5.6
  Feb 23, 2017 92   Memphis W 87-74 89%     25 - 3 14 - 1 +15.3 +23.2 -6.8
  Feb 26, 2017 68   @ Central Florida L 49-53 68%     25 - 4 14 - 2 +6.5 -5.5 +11.3
  Mar 02, 2017 53   Houston W 65-47 78%     26 - 4 15 - 2 +25.5 +6.1 +22.4
  Mar 05, 2017 84   @ Connecticut W 67-47 75%     27 - 4 16 - 2 +28.3 +11.2 +20.4
  Mar 10, 2017 126   Tulsa W 80-61 89%     28 - 4 +21.0 +17.2 +5.7
  Mar 11, 2017 84   @ Connecticut W 81-71 75%     29 - 4 +18.3 +28.9 -8.8
  Mar 12, 2017 13   SMU L 56-71 41%     29 - 5 +2.7 +1.4 -1.7
Projected Record 29.0 - 5.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 99.5% 99.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 2.2 11.2 29.0 39.4 15.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 99.5%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.5% 0.0% 99.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 2.2 11.2 29.0 39.4 15.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 99.5%