Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Lipscomb 37.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 4 +2.2      +1.9 113 +0.4 152 83.6 7 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 Liberty 25.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 +0.6      +0.5 152 +0.1 163 59.9 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
179 Florida Gulf Coast 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 6 -1.0      -0.5 179 -0.5 182 75.8 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 North Florida 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 7 -3.2      +3.0 94 -6.2 337 80.8 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 NJIT 7.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 7 -3.9      -2.7 252 -1.2 212 66.5 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Jacksonville 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 9 -7.0      -3.8 278 -3.2 285 70.4 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
337 Stetson 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 11 -12.3      -6.4 326 -5.8 332 72.4 92 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Kennesaw St. 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -12.4      -7.4 336 -5.0 325 69.5 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
340 North Alabama 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 23 4 - 12 -13.3      -9.9 351 -3.4 287 70.0 151 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Lipscomb 2.2 43.1 23.8 14.9 8.6 5.2 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
Liberty 2.7 30.9 23.6 18.1 11.9 8.3 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.4
Florida Gulf Coast 3.1 21.8 21.0 19.2 15.6 11.2 6.2 3.1 1.4 0.5
North Florida 3.9 12.7 14.8 17.2 17.8 15.4 11.7 6.4 2.7 1.2
NJIT 4.2 9.5 13.7 16.3 17.7 16.5 12.9 7.6 4.1 1.7
Jacksonville 5.3 3.6 6.6 10.1 14.1 17.7 19.5 15.2 8.6 4.6
Stetson 7.0 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.0 8.2 14.4 21.0 24.2 22.7
Kennesaw St. 7.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.9 8.2 13.7 21.4 24.5 22.9
North Alabama 7.3 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 7.0 12.2 20.8 25.3 27.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Lipscomb 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.5 4.3 7.3 10.0 12.8 16.0 16.4 14.1 9.6 4.3
Liberty 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.4 7.0 9.5 11.5 15.3 14.8 14.4 10.5 5.8 2.2
Florida Gulf Coast 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.5 9.0 12.0 13.8 14.5 13.1 10.9 7.0 3.9 1.0
North Florida 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.5 10.2 12.2 13.8 13.4 11.6 9.7 6.7 3.6 1.6 0.5
NJIT 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.4 6.3 8.4 10.8 13.0 13.6 12.4 11.3 8.8 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.2
Jacksonville 7 - 9 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.7 10.8 13.6 13.6 13.1 11.9 8.6 5.6 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1
Stetson 5 - 11 2.5 7.1 11.7 15.8 15.8 14.5 11.1 8.5 5.7 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5 - 11 2.6 7.8 12.0 14.8 15.7 14.1 11.5 8.8 5.4 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 4 - 12 4.3 9.6 13.4 15.9 15.8 13.8 10.6 6.7 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 43.1% 31.1 9.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
Liberty 30.9% 20.6 8.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 21.8% 14.0 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
North Florida 12.7% 7.4 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
NJIT 9.5% 5.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stetson 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 37.4% 36.9% 0.5% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.3 8.2 8.7 7.6 3.7 62.6 0.7%
Liberty 25.4% 25.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.2 6.4 6.8 5.1 74.6 0.2%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.1% 18.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.4 4.6 6.4 81.9 0.1%
North Florida 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.5 4.1 90.3 0.0%
NJIT 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.8 92.9 0.1%
Jacksonville 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 97.3 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 37.4% 1.9% 36.6% 5.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 25.4% 2.4% 24.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.1% 3.7% 16.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 9.7% 2.4% 8.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 7.1% 1.8% 6.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.7% 1.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7 0.0
1st Round 93.7% 0.9 6.3 93.2 0.5
2nd Round 11.0% 0.1 89.0 11.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0