Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Kansas 96.4%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +19.8      +11.9 3 +7.9 4 69.5 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
11 West Virginia 78.7%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +15.1      +8.4 15 +6.7 12 70.5 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
14 Kansas St. 77.4%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +14.6      +7.2 25 +7.4 6 63.8 315 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 Texas 63.2%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.2      +5.5 49 +6.7 14 63.3 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
28 TCU 59.8%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.8      +8.4 16 +3.5 70 70.4 143 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Texas Tech 57.5%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.7      +4.9 55 +6.7 13 66.0 254 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 Iowa St. 56.5%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.6      +7.1 26 +4.4 48 71.5 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 Baylor 44.5%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +9.7      +4.8 61 +5.0 37 65.6 268 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 Oklahoma 39.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 +9.1      +5.1 52 +3.9 61 86.7 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
74 Oklahoma St. 25.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 12 +7.0      +4.0 73 +3.0 84 69.7 160 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Kansas 2.2 49.7 21.1 11.2 7.0 4.2 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.3
West Virginia 3.9 17.9 18.4 16.2 12.6 10.0 8.8 6.3 4.9 3.0 2.0
Kansas St. 4.1 15.7 16.9 14.8 12.9 10.9 9.1 7.1 5.9 4.3 2.3
Texas 5.1 8.2 11.4 12.7 11.8 11.6 11.5 10.5 9.3 7.7 5.2
TCU 5.3 7.3 10.3 10.9 11.3 12.7 12.4 10.7 9.8 8.7 5.8
Texas Tech 5.4 7.1 9.2 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.3 10.3 8.9 6.4
Iowa St. 5.5 6.4 9.5 10.9 11.7 11.9 11.5 11.8 9.5 9.1 7.6
Baylor 6.3 3.5 5.9 7.7 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.7 12.9 13.9 11.7
Oklahoma 6.6 3.0 5.0 7.0 8.3 10.0 10.6 12.9 13.6 15.4 14.2
Oklahoma St. 7.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 5.7 7.3 9.8 11.3 14.7 18.2 25.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.5 4.1 5.9 7.9 10.3 12.6 14.1 13.7 12.4 8.6 4.4
West Virginia 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.1 8.2 9.5 10.6 12.0 11.6 10.7 8.5 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.5
Kansas St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.5 5.4 6.8 8.7 10.3 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.8 7.7 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.3
Texas 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.4 6.2 8.1 10.1 11.0 10.5 10.7 10.2 8.7 5.9 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
TCU 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 4.8 6.7 9.3 10.2 10.7 11.9 10.9 9.2 7.3 5.6 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Texas Tech 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.9 5.0 7.3 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.7 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.0
Iowa St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.5 5.6 7.5 8.7 10.0 11.6 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.5 5.3 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2
Baylor 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.4 6.2 8.3 9.9 10.3 11.8 11.1 10.3 8.5 6.9 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1
Oklahoma 7 - 11 0.7 1.7 4.5 6.7 9.6 10.5 11.5 11.3 10.9 9.5 7.5 5.6 4.4 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6 - 12 1.8 4.5 7.7 10.5 11.4 12.8 11.7 10.6 9.0 7.3 4.9 3.0 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 49.7% 38.8 9.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 17.9% 12.1 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 15.7% 10.1 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
Texas 8.2% 5.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
TCU 7.3% 4.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 7.1% 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 6.4% 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Baylor 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 96.4% 30.9% 65.5% 1   41.9 21.5 10.3 7.3 4.7 3.6 3.1 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 94.8%
West Virginia 78.7% 14.0% 64.6% 4   8.0 9.7 9.1 8.6 7.4 5.2 8.2 7.1 6.4 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.3 75.2%
Kansas St. 77.4% 12.5% 64.9% 3   9.4 10.2 10.7 8.8 8.0 7.5 6.8 5.6 4.4 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 22.6 74.1%
Texas 63.2% 8.1% 55.1% 6   4.4 5.9 7.2 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.4 4.6 3.2 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 36.8 59.9%
TCU 59.8% 7.8% 52.0% 7   3.4 4.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.5 6.5 5.6 4.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.2 56.3%
Texas Tech 57.5% 7.7% 49.8% 6   2.8 3.8 5.9 5.9 7.0 7.9 6.3 5.8 4.4 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 42.5 53.9%
Iowa St. 56.5% 7.1% 49.4% 7   2.5 4.0 5.9 6.1 6.8 6.9 6.3 6.2 4.4 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 43.5 53.2%
Baylor 44.5% 4.7% 39.7% 11   1.5 2.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.0 3.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 55.5 41.7%
Oklahoma 39.5% 4.4% 35.1% 1.7 2.4 3.7 4.3 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 60.5 36.7%
Oklahoma St. 25.0% 2.7% 22.3% 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.4 3.5 3.8 2.7 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 75.0 22.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 96.4% 0.3% 96.3% 87.2% 64.7% 43.5% 27.3% 16.7% 10.3%
West Virginia 78.7% 2.6% 77.6% 58.5% 33.7% 17.9% 8.9% 4.4% 2.3%
Kansas St. 77.4% 1.8% 76.5% 57.0% 33.5% 18.1% 8.9% 4.3% 2.4%
Texas 63.2% 2.3% 62.2% 42.0% 22.1% 10.8% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0%
TCU 59.8% 3.1% 58.2% 38.6% 18.8% 8.6% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6%
Texas Tech 57.5% 2.4% 56.5% 37.1% 18.2% 8.4% 3.8% 1.7% 0.7%
Iowa St. 56.5% 2.5% 55.3% 36.3% 17.3% 7.7% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7%
Baylor 44.5% 2.5% 43.3% 26.3% 12.0% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
Oklahoma 39.5% 1.1% 39.0% 23.6% 10.8% 4.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Oklahoma St. 25.0% 1.4% 24.3% 13.8% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.9 7.3 24.2 36.0 24.1 6.7 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.6 25.4 35.7 22.3 6.0 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.2 0.1 0.8 6.2 20.8 32.2 26.0 11.6 2.1 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.1% 2.4 2.9 18.3 34.8 30.3 11.3 2.3 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 80.2% 1.3 19.8 42.9 28.9 7.5 0.9 0.0
Final Four 54.7% 0.7 45.3 43.6 10.4 0.6 0.0
Final Game 32.7% 0.3 67.3 30.7 2.0
Champion 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.9