Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Northeastern 51.5%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 4 +7.7      +4.9 56 +2.8 91 66.6 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 College of Charleston 21.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +3.6      +1.5 125 +2.1 108 62.5 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Hofstra 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +0.6      +3.3 87 -2.8 273 71.1 123 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 William & Mary 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 0.0      +3.8 77 -3.8 292 72.8 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 James Madison 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.8      -0.7 189 0.0 165 69.0 184 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 UNC Wilmington 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 10 -2.0      +0.5 150 -2.5 264 76.9 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Elon 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -4.1      -1.4 210 -2.7 270 67.7 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Towson 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -4.3      -3.9 283 -0.4 181 68.3 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Delaware 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -4.3      -2.2 235 -2.2 251 64.5 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
280 Drexel 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -6.2      -2.3 238 -3.9 295 70.9 127 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northeastern 1.9 56.9 19.7 10.4 6.0 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.1
College of Charleston 3.2 23.0 23.8 17.0 12.0 8.4 6.5 4.5 2.6 1.5 0.7
Hofstra 4.4 10.7 15.2 15.7 14.6 12.1 10.3 8.5 6.1 4.6 2.3
William & Mary 4.7 8.9 14.4 14.4 13.8 12.1 11.2 8.7 7.4 5.4 3.7
James Madison 5.1 7.2 11.5 12.7 13.8 12.8 12.1 10.0 8.7 6.5 4.9
UNC Wilmington 5.6 4.5 8.6 11.1 12.3 12.4 12.7 11.5 10.7 9.8 6.5
Elon 6.5 2.2 5.1 7.4 8.8 10.8 11.8 13.4 14.2 13.7 12.7
Towson 6.6 1.9 4.9 6.3 8.8 10.8 12.5 12.9 14.2 14.2 13.5
Delaware 6.6 2.1 4.7 7.3 8.4 10.4 11.6 13.4 13.9 15.0 13.3
Drexel 7.4 0.8 2.4 4.0 6.0 7.3 10.9 11.8 15.0 18.4 23.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northeastern 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.7 4.4 6.7 8.6 12.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 11.7 5.6
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.0 8.0 9.9 11.7 12.5 12.6 10.7 9.1 6.0 3.1 0.9
Hofstra 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.8 6.1 8.1 9.3 11.4 11.7 11.6 10.5 8.8 6.3 4.2 2.5 0.8 0.2
William & Mary 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.3 6.2 8.8 9.8 11.3 11.8 11.2 9.5 7.7 5.7 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.2
James Madison 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.8 6.0 7.6 9.7 10.9 11.8 11.4 10.1 8.5 6.4 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1
UNC Wilmington 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.8 5.7 7.8 9.5 10.4 11.7 11.3 10.4 9.3 6.9 4.6 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1
Elon 7 - 11 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.6 8.9 10.4 12.3 11.7 10.7 10.1 7.6 6.1 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Towson 7 - 11 0.7 2.0 3.9 6.7 9.3 10.7 11.8 11.9 11.6 9.5 7.5 6.0 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Delaware 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.4 6.6 8.8 11.2 11.9 11.8 10.6 9.4 8.1 5.8 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drexel 6 - 12 1.5 4.4 7.5 10.1 12.4 12.3 11.8 11.5 8.9 7.1 5.0 3.2 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northeastern 56.9% 45.9 9.4 1.5 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 23.0% 15.7 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
Hofstra 10.7% 6.5 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 8.9% 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
James Madison 7.2% 4.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 4.5% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Elon 2.2% 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Towson 1.9% 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Delaware 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drexel 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northeastern 51.5% 45.1% 6.4% 12   0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.9 4.1 8.5 12.1 8.0 3.9 1.8 0.6 48.5 11.7%
College of Charleston 21.3% 19.2% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 2.5 4.2 4.1 3.9 2.7 1.4 78.7 2.7%
Hofstra 9.9% 9.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 90.1 0.8%
William & Mary 8.6% 8.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 91.4 0.5%
James Madison 6.6% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 93.4 0.3%
UNC Wilmington 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 95.6 0.1%
Elon 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 97.6 0.1%
Towson 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 98.1 0.0%
Delaware 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 97.6 0.1%
Drexel 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northeastern 51.5% 2.7% 50.3% 18.2% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
College of Charleston 21.3% 1.7% 20.4% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 9.9% 0.6% 9.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 8.6% 0.8% 8.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 6.6% 1.1% 6.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 4.4% 0.7% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 2.4% 0.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 1.9% 0.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 2.4% 0.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.0 9.8 0.3 0.0
1st Round 98.1% 1.1 1.9 90.5 7.4 0.1
2nd Round 27.1% 0.3 72.9 26.4 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.1
Elite Eight 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2