Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Gonzaga 94.8%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 14 - 2 +18.2      +10.9 6 +7.3 8 70.9 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 St. Mary's 42.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 5 +8.8      +6.0 42 +2.8 88 61.0 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 BYU 31.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 6 +8.3      +3.5 79 +4.8 41 67.5 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
121 San Diego 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 8 +3.2      +0.8 138 +2.4 99 66.6 241 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 San Francisco 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 8 +2.2      -0.1 172 +2.4 100 66.0 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 Loyola Marymount 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 9 -0.1      +2.0 108 -2.2 252 67.4 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
168 Pacific 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 9 -0.2      +0.5 148 -0.7 194 66.4 245 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Santa Clara 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 11 -3.3      -2.0 227 -1.3 217 62.3 331 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 Pepperdine 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 11 -4.2      -0.2 173 -4.0 298 68.0 203 0.0 1 0.0 1
241 Portland 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 11 -4.4      -1.9 223 -2.5 265 66.2 250 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.3 80.7 13.3 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 3.1 13.6 32.8 22.4 13.1 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3
BYU 3.3 11.5 29.6 23.5 14.2 8.5 5.6 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.3
San Diego 5.0 2.8 11.0 14.8 17.6 14.5 12.8 11.0 7.7 4.8 2.7
San Francisco 5.3 2.1 8.7 13.6 15.3 15.7 14.5 11.4 8.8 6.3 3.7
Loyola Marymount 6.0 1.3 5.3 9.0 12.5 14.4 14.0 13.6 12.4 10.5 7.0
Pacific 6.2 0.9 4.4 8.5 11.8 13.5 14.8 13.9 13.3 10.9 7.9
Santa Clara 7.2 0.2 1.8 4.1 7.5 10.1 12.0 13.8 15.8 17.6 17.1
Pepperdine 7.3 0.1 2.2 4.2 6.6 8.9 11.0 13.9 16.0 18.0 19.1
Portland 7.5 0.1 1.4 3.6 6.2 8.0 11.8 13.2 15.3 18.9 21.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.4 7.6 12.6 21.1 27.2 25.4
St. Mary's 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.8 5.3 7.7 10.8 14.0 15.3 15.1 13.3 8.4 3.6 0.9
BYU 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.9 9.0 11.4 14.3 16.0 14.2 11.5 6.9 2.8 0.6
San Diego 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 5.5 8.2 10.9 12.8 13.8 13.4 11.9 8.2 5.6 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.0
San Francisco 8 - 8 0.2 0.5 1.8 3.7 6.2 9.3 12.1 14.1 13.6 12.9 10.4 7.3 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 0.4 1.6 3.5 5.7 9.6 12.3 14.0 13.4 12.4 10.2 7.2 5.1 2.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Pacific 7 - 9 0.4 1.7 3.8 7.0 10.4 12.5 13.7 13.9 12.6 9.6 6.9 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 5 - 11 1.5 4.7 7.8 12.6 14.0 14.9 12.7 10.9 8.8 5.7 3.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 5 - 11 1.5 5.2 9.7 12.4 14.5 14.3 13.1 9.8 7.8 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Portland 5 - 11 2.2 5.9 10.2 13.2 14.8 13.9 12.6 10.7 6.9 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 80.7% 70.1 9.6 0.8 0.1
St. Mary's 13.6% 7.8 5.2 0.6 0.0
BYU 11.5% 6.2 4.6 0.6 0.1
San Diego 2.8% 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
San Francisco 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Santa Clara 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 94.8% 67.1% 27.7% 2   17.4 16.6 11.6 11.2 7.8 6.5 5.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 84.1%
St. Mary's 42.2% 12.3% 29.9% 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.1 4.1 4.8 6.4 7.6 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 57.8 34.1%
BYU 31.4% 10.3% 21.2% 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.4 3.8 5.0 6.5 4.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 68.6 23.6%
San Diego 9.4% 3.5% 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 90.6 6.1%
San Francisco 6.6% 3.0% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 93.4 3.7%
Loyola Marymount 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 97.6 0.9%
Pacific 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 97.8 0.9%
Santa Clara 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.1%
Pepperdine 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Portland 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 94.8% 2.1% 93.8% 76.6% 51.2% 31.8% 18.8% 11.0% 6.1%
St. Mary's 42.2% 7.2% 38.6% 20.2% 7.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%
BYU 31.4% 6.3% 28.4% 14.3% 5.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
San Diego 9.4% 2.4% 8.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
San Francisco 6.6% 1.7% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 31.7 48.6 17.4 2.2 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 0.0 37.2 47.1 14.3 1.4 0.0
2nd Round 86.4% 1.2 13.6 59.0 24.5 2.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 58.9% 0.7 41.1 52.3 6.4 0.3
Elite Eight 36.0% 0.4 64.0 34.6 1.4 0.0
Final Four 20.7% 0.2 79.3 20.3 0.4
Final Game 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.9 0.0
Champion 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5