Preseason Rankings
Green Bay
Horizon
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#235
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.7#24
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.4% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 29.8% 43.5% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 68.9% 51.4%
Conference Champion 7.3% 10.5% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 3.3% 6.9%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.5%
First Round5.3% 7.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 2.20.0 - 2.2
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.40.1 - 3.6
Quad 20.4 - 2.50.5 - 6.1
Quad 32.6 - 5.73.2 - 11.9
Quad 49.0 - 5.012.2 - 16.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 161   Indiana St. L 74-78 44%    
  Nov 11, 2018 34   @ Iowa L 75-90 5%    
  Nov 16, 2018 174   @ Eastern Washington L 73-77 28%    
  Nov 17, 2018 224   Morehead St. L 75-76 48%    
  Nov 20, 2018 17   @ Oregon L 66-84 4%    
  Nov 28, 2018 186   Northern Illinois L 74-77 50%    
  Dec 01, 2018 109   Belmont L 72-80 33%    
  Dec 08, 2018 205   @ Bowling Green L 77-79 33%    
  Dec 14, 2018 41   @ Creighton L 73-87 7%    
  Dec 16, 2018 10   @ Michigan St. L 66-86 3%    
  Dec 22, 2018 196   @ Evansville L 68-70 32%    
  Dec 29, 2018 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-70 45%    
  Jan 03, 2019 329   Youngstown St. W 83-76 80%    
  Jan 05, 2019 281   Cleveland St. W 75-73 66%    
  Jan 10, 2019 336   @ Detroit Mercy W 86-78 66%    
  Jan 12, 2019 245   @ Oakland W 78-77 42%    
  Jan 17, 2019 275   IUPUI W 73-71 65%    
  Jan 19, 2019 181   Illinois-Chicago L 77-80 49%    
  Jan 24, 2019 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-80 20%    
  Jan 26, 2019 138   @ Wright St. L 70-76 22%    
  Feb 01, 2019 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-70 65%    
  Feb 07, 2019 281   @ Cleveland St. W 75-73 47%    
  Feb 09, 2019 329   @ Youngstown St. W 83-76 63%    
  Feb 14, 2019 245   Oakland W 78-77 61%    
  Feb 16, 2019 336   Detroit Mercy W 86-78 83%    
  Feb 22, 2019 181   @ Illinois-Chicago L 77-80 30%    
  Feb 24, 2019 275   @ IUPUI W 73-71 47%    
  Feb 28, 2019 138   Wright St. L 70-76 39%    
  Mar 02, 2019 128   Northern Kentucky L 73-80 38%    
Projected Record 12.2 - 16.8 9.3 - 8.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 4.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.9 4.0 0.9 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.4 3.4 0.5 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.1 8.2 9.6 10.9 12.0 10.8 10.6 8.8 7.3 4.7 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 97.2% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.3% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.0
14-4 39.4% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.1 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 71.1% 62.0% 9.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.9%
17-1 0.6% 51.6% 51.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.4% 39.2% 39.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.1%
15-3 2.9% 25.5% 25.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.2
14-4 4.7% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 3.6 0.0%
13-5 7.3% 13.5% 13.5% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 6.4
12-6 8.8% 8.6% 8.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 8.0
11-7 10.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.9
10-8 10.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.4
9-9 12.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.7
8-10 10.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.7
7-11 9.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 9.6
6-12 8.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.1
5-13 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.6 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%