Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#161
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#82
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#214
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 8.6% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 2.3% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.9 12.2 13.4
.500 or above 34.1% 52.0% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 40.2% 50.7% 36.1%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.7% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 15.8% 10.2% 18.0%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
First Round5.0% 8.1% 3.8%
Second Round0.9% 2.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.70.3 - 2.7
Quad 21.2 - 4.31.4 - 7.0
Quad 34.9 - 6.96.3 - 13.9
Quad 45.4 - 2.311.7 - 16.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 111   @ Ball St. L 73-76 28%    
  Nov 09, 2018 235   @ Green Bay W 78-74 56%    
  Nov 24, 2018 60   Western Kentucky L 71-80 31%    
  Nov 28, 2018 321   @ San Jose St. W 73-63 74%    
  Dec 01, 2018 138   Wright St. L 69-71 55%    
  Dec 05, 2018 132   North Texas L 70-72 53%    
  Dec 16, 2018 28   @ TCU L 69-81 10%    
  Dec 22, 2018 84   Colorado L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 23, 2018 139   UNLV L 77-79 43%    
  Dec 25, 2018 28   TCU L 69-81 16%    
  Jan 02, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-73 19%    
  Jan 05, 2019 117   Bradley L 67-70 50%    
  Jan 08, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 70-68 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 66-64 48%    
  Jan 16, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa L 63-66 30%    
  Jan 19, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 65-73 34%    
  Jan 23, 2019 120   Valparaiso L 70-73 50%    
  Jan 27, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 71-77 22%    
  Jan 30, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois L 68-72 29%    
  Feb 02, 2019 202   Drake W 74-71 68%    
  Feb 06, 2019 196   Evansville W 66-64 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 117   @ Bradley L 67-70 31%    
  Feb 13, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso L 70-73 32%    
  Feb 16, 2019 104   Southern Illinois L 68-72 47%    
  Feb 20, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 71-77 39%    
  Feb 23, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 70-68 45%    
  Feb 27, 2019 202   @ Drake W 74-71 49%    
  Mar 02, 2019 116   Northern Iowa L 63-66 50%    
Projected Record 11.7 - 16.3 7.7 - 10.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 2.4 0.9 0.1 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.8 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.8 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.0 5.1 7.4 9.1 10.8 11.5 11.3 10.2 9.0 7.3 5.5 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 98.9% 0.4    0.4 0.1
15-3 82.5% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.1% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.0% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 87.9% 33.4% 54.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8%
16-2 0.5% 61.9% 22.3% 39.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 51.0%
15-3 1.2% 46.5% 22.8% 23.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 30.7%
14-4 2.2% 30.4% 21.3% 9.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 11.6%
13-5 4.0% 21.3% 16.0% 5.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3%
12-6 5.5% 15.1% 14.0% 1.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 1.2%
11-7 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 0.0%
10-8 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.5 0.0%
9-9 10.2% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.9
8-10 11.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.0
7-11 11.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.3
6-12 10.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
5-13 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.0
4-14 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
3-15 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.5% 4.4% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 94.6 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%