Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.5#338
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.8%
#1 Seed 6.7% 6.8% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 14.9% 34.5% 8.3%
Top 4 Seed 34.1% 34.5% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 50.7% 34.5% 8.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.5% 75.0% 44.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.4% 71.9% 43.9%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 6.9
.500 or above 88.2% 88.6% 62.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 75.0% 53.2%
Conference Champion 17.7% 18.0% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.9% 4.8%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 1.0%
First Round73.4% 73.9% 44.6%
Second Round51.8% 52.3% 22.3%
Sweet Sixteen28.4% 28.7% 10.9%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.2% 2.9%
Final Four6.8% 6.9% 2.6%
Championship Game3.3% 3.4% 1.7%
National Champion1.6% 1.6% 0.8%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.4 - 4.92.4 - 4.9
Quad 1b3.0 - 2.55.4 - 7.3
Quad 25.3 - 2.210.7 - 9.5
Quad 33.8 - 0.614.4 - 10.1
Quad 46.3 - 0.220.7 - 10.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 78-58 98%    
  Nov 10, 2018 206   Holy Cross W 70-54 96%    
  Nov 14, 2018 8   @ Villanova L 68-71 28%    
  Nov 17, 2018 208   George Washington W 73-57 93%    
  Nov 18, 2018 47   Providence W 68-64 63%    
  Nov 23, 2018 314   Chattanooga W 75-52 99%    
  Nov 28, 2018 6   North Carolina L 71-75 45%    
  Dec 01, 2018 27   Purdue W 68-67 65%    
  Dec 04, 2018 62   @ Northwestern W 67-62 56%    
  Dec 08, 2018 61   South Carolina W 69-64 74%    
  Dec 15, 2018 211   Western Michigan W 76-60 95%    
  Dec 22, 2018 212   Air Force W 74-58 95%    
  Dec 30, 2018 269   Binghamton W 74-55 97%    
  Jan 03, 2019 57   Penn St. W 69-64 74%    
  Jan 06, 2019 25   Indiana W 68-67 63%    
  Jan 10, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 75-68 63%    
  Jan 13, 2019 62   Northwestern W 67-62 75%    
  Jan 19, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin W 64-63 41%    
  Jan 22, 2019 68   Minnesota W 73-68 76%    
  Jan 25, 2019 25   @ Indiana W 68-67 43%    
  Jan 29, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 68-65 69%    
  Feb 01, 2019 34   @ Iowa W 74-72 47%    
  Feb 05, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 68-57 75%    
  Feb 09, 2019 22   Wisconsin W 64-63 61%    
  Feb 12, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 69-64 55%    
  Feb 16, 2019 32   Maryland W 68-66 67%    
  Feb 21, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 73-68 57%    
  Feb 24, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 67-69 52%    
  Feb 28, 2019 35   Nebraska W 69-67 67%    
  Mar 03, 2019 32   @ Maryland W 68-66 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 67-69 34%    
Projected Record 20.7 - 10.3 11.9 - 8.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.3 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.3 17.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.4 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.5 0.9 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 3.4 1.5 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.7 8.0 9.2 9.9 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.0 6.7 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 97.3% 2.6    2.5 0.2
17-3 90.2% 4.1    3.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 64.4% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.7% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.9% 1.4    0.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 11.7 4.7 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 57.2% 42.8% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.7% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.5 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.0% 99.8% 18.4% 81.5% 3.2 0.6 1.9 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 10.0% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 4.2 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.4% 99.3% 11.5% 87.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 10.6% 96.2% 8.2% 88.0% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.7 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.9%
11-9 9.9% 89.2% 5.0% 84.2% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.1 88.7%
10-10 9.2% 68.3% 4.3% 64.0% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 66.9%
9-11 8.0% 40.6% 4.6% 36.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.7 37.8%
8-12 5.7% 13.3% 3.6% 9.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0%
7-13 4.0% 4.2% 2.9% 1.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 1.3%
6-14 3.2% 1.4% 1.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-15 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.5% 10.8% 63.6% 5.2 6.7 8.2 10.1 9.1 8.8 7.9 6.4 6.0 4.2 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.5 71.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9