Preseason Rankings
Nebraska
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#202
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.3% 17.7% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 17.6% 17.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 31.3% 17.7% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.6% 57.8% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.6% 54.8% 13.4%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 8.3
.500 or above 77.2% 77.4% 29.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 61.3% 17.6%
Conference Champion 9.3% 9.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 3.7% 13.6%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 0.1%
First Round56.1% 56.3% 13.4%
Second Round35.2% 35.3% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen16.3% 16.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight7.1% 7.2% 0.0%
Final Four3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
Championship Game1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.2 - 5.52.2 - 5.5
Quad 1b2.6 - 2.84.8 - 8.3
Quad 25.0 - 2.79.7 - 11.0
Quad 34.1 - 0.913.8 - 11.9
Quad 44.1 - 0.217.9 - 12.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 344   Mississippi Valley W 85-60 99.6%   
  Nov 11, 2018 236   SE Louisiana W 77-62 96%    
  Nov 14, 2018 52   Seton Hall W 75-73 67%    
  Nov 19, 2018 190   Missouri St. W 75-63 87%    
  Nov 20, 2018 29   Texas Tech L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 24, 2018 270   Western Illinois W 79-62 96%    
  Nov 26, 2018 18   @ Clemson L 68-70 33%    
  Dec 02, 2018 76   Illinois W 77-73 74%    
  Dec 05, 2018 68   @ Minnesota W 76-73 51%    
  Dec 08, 2018 41   Creighton W 76-75 63%    
  Dec 16, 2018 74   Oklahoma St. W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 22, 2018 143   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-68 87%    
  Jan 02, 2019 32   @ Maryland L 71-72 39%    
  Jan 06, 2019 34   @ Iowa L 77-78 40%    
  Jan 10, 2019 57   Penn St. W 71-69 68%    
  Jan 14, 2019 25   @ Indiana L 71-73 36%    
  Jan 17, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 70-74 46%    
  Jan 21, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 71-62 69%    
  Jan 26, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 71-70 62%    
  Jan 29, 2019 22   Wisconsin L 66-68 54%    
  Feb 02, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 77-73 54%    
  Feb 06, 2019 32   Maryland L 71-72 60%    
  Feb 09, 2019 27   @ Purdue L 71-72 37%    
  Feb 13, 2019 68   Minnesota W 76-73 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 62   Northwestern W 69-67 68%    
  Feb 19, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 71-69 47%    
  Feb 23, 2019 27   Purdue L 71-72 56%    
  Feb 28, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 67-69 33%    
  Mar 05, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 28%    
  Mar 10, 2019 34   Iowa L 77-78 61%    
Projected Record 17.9 - 12.1 10.5 - 9.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 9.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.5 0.8 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.9 1.2 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.3 4.0 5.1 7.6 8.1 9.7 9.9 10.8 10.6 8.6 7.0 5.9 4.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 96.5% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 86.0% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 66.7% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.3% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.7 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 29.7% 70.3% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.8 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.9% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.7 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.0% 99.6% 12.2% 87.4% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 8.6% 98.7% 7.9% 90.8% 5.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-8 10.6% 93.0% 6.8% 86.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.7 92.5%
11-9 10.8% 80.1% 5.4% 74.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 79.0%
10-10 9.9% 56.8% 4.0% 52.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3 55.0%
9-11 9.7% 27.8% 4.3% 23.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 24.5%
8-12 8.1% 9.6% 3.5% 6.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 6.4%
7-13 7.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.6%
6-14 5.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.3%
5-15 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-18 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 57.6% 6.7% 50.9% 6.3 2.3 4.0 5.8 5.5 6.2 7.5 5.7 6.0 5.1 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 42.4 54.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0