Preseason Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.8#334
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 5.0% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 5.0% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 9.9% 5.0% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 34.0% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.3% 31.2% 10.0%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 9.0
.500 or above 68.3% 69.6% 36.7%
.500 or above in Conference 42.6% 43.4% 23.8%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 8.7% 16.8%
First Four4.5% 4.6% 1.2%
First Round30.9% 31.7% 11.2%
Second Round16.8% 17.2% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 6.6% 1.9%
Elite Eight2.5% 2.6% 0.4%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.3 - 5.21.3 - 5.2
Quad 1b1.8 - 2.93.0 - 8.1
Quad 24.1 - 3.37.1 - 11.4
Quad 34.9 - 1.612.1 - 13.0
Quad 45.6 - 0.317.6 - 13.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 292   New Orleans W 73-57 96%    
  Nov 12, 2018 242   American W 73-60 93%    
  Nov 16, 2018 269   Binghamton W 73-58 94%    
  Nov 22, 2018 91   Fresno St. W 68-65 62%    
  Nov 23, 2018 166   La Salle W 74-65 77%    
  Nov 25, 2018 87   Utah W 67-64 60%    
  Nov 28, 2018 113   Georgia Tech W 66-61 75%    
  Dec 01, 2018 25   @ Indiana L 66-70 27%    
  Dec 04, 2018 19   Michigan L 62-67 44%    
  Dec 08, 2018 89   DePaul W 70-67 70%    
  Dec 17, 2018 350   Chicago St. W 84-59 99%    
  Dec 21, 2018 53   Oklahoma L 76-77 59%    
  Dec 30, 2018 229   Columbia W 79-66 90%    
  Jan 02, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 65-72 20%    
  Jan 06, 2019 76   Illinois W 73-71 66%    
  Jan 09, 2019 34   Iowa L 73-75 52%    
  Jan 13, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 62-67 25%    
  Jan 18, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 66-60 61%    
  Jan 22, 2019 25   Indiana L 66-70 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin L 62-66 27%    
  Jan 29, 2019 32   @ Maryland L 66-69 31%    
  Feb 04, 2019 57   Penn St. L 66-67 59%    
  Feb 10, 2019 34   @ Iowa L 73-75 32%    
  Feb 13, 2019 140   Rutgers W 66-60 78%    
  Feb 16, 2019 35   @ Nebraska L 67-69 32%    
  Feb 20, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. L 66-68 34%    
  Feb 23, 2019 22   Wisconsin L 62-66 45%    
  Feb 28, 2019 68   Minnesota W 72-71 62%    
  Mar 03, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 73-71 46%    
  Mar 06, 2019 40   Ohio St. L 66-68 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 27   Purdue L 66-70 48%    
Projected Record 17.6 - 13.4 8.9 - 11.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.7 2.1 0.3 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.4 1.3 0.1 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 5.7 14th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.0 6.7 9.2 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.3 9.3 7.6 5.5 4.0 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 99.8% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 79.2% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 62.1% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 40.4% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.6% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.8% 99.5% 12.4% 87.1% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 4.0% 98.1% 13.0% 85.1% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
13-7 5.5% 94.4% 7.3% 87.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.9%
12-8 7.6% 83.5% 6.0% 77.5% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 82.4%
11-9 9.3% 61.5% 4.2% 57.3% 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 3.6 59.8%
10-10 10.3% 37.7% 3.5% 34.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 6.4 35.4%
9-11 10.6% 13.2% 3.9% 9.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.2 9.7%
8-12 10.5% 4.7% 2.5% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 2.2%
7-13 9.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.1%
6-14 9.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
4-16 5.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
3-17 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-18 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 33.2% 4.1% 29.1% 7.9 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 66.8 30.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0