IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.5	#331
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#322
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.8	#329

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#319

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	n/a	n/a	n/a

.500 or above	5.8%	24.8%	5.6%
.500 or above in Conference	20.3%	41.9%	20.1%
Conference Champion	1.3%	7.3%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	30.8%	9.8%	31.1%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.6	0.0 - 1.6
Quad 1b	0.0 - 1.6	0.0 - 3.2
Quad 2	0.1 - 2.2	0.1 - 5.4
Quad 3	0.7 - 5.1	0.7 - 10.5
Quad 4	7.3 - 10.4	8.0 - 21.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	38	@ North Carolina St.	L	62-84	1%
Nov 09, 2018	156	@ Hofstra	L	65-77	8%
Nov 14, 2018	99	@ Marshall	L	67-83	4%
Nov 18, 2018	32	@ Maryland	L	55-78	1%
Nov 21, 2018	347	N.C. A&T	W	70-67	71%
Nov 25, 2018	339	@ Morgan St.	W	68-67	43%
Dec 01, 2018	300	@ Loyola Maryland	L	65-69	27%
Dec 05, 2018	31	@ St. John's	L	58-81	1%
Dec 08, 2018	185	Lehigh	L	66-76	26%
Dec 18, 2018	242	@ American	L	62-69	19%
Dec 30, 2018	68	@ Minnesota	L	61-80	3%
Jan 03, 2019	160	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	64-76	10%
Jan 05, 2019	233	@ Robert Morris	L	62-69	19%
Jan 10, 2019	315	Bryant	L	71-73	52%
Jan 12, 2019	313	Central Connecticut St.	L	63-66	51%
Jan 19, 2019	215	@ Wagner	L	61-69	17%
Jan 21, 2019	252	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	68-74	22%
Jan 24, 2019	225	LIU Brooklyn	L	68-76	35%
Jan 26, 2019	318	St. Francis Brooklyn	L	67-69	54%
Jan 31, 2019	324	Sacred Heart	L	66-67	55%
Feb 02, 2019	160	St. Francis (PA)	L	64-76	23%
Feb 07, 2019	225	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	68-76	19%
Feb 09, 2019	324	@ Sacred Heart	L	66-67	35%
Feb 14, 2019	233	Robert Morris	L	62-69	36%
Feb 16, 2019	215	Wagner	L	61-69	34%
Feb 21, 2019	313	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	63-66	33%
Feb 23, 2019	315	@ Bryant	L	71-73	33%
Feb 28, 2019	252	Fairleigh Dickinson	L	68-74	39%
Mar 02, 2019	318	@ St. Francis Brooklyn	L	67-69	33%
Projected Record						8.0 - 21.0	6.0 - 12.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0			1.3	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0				2.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	0.9	1.5	0.9	0.3	0.0						3.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.6	2.2	1.4	0.2	0.0							5.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.3	3.3	1.5	0.2	0.0								7.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.2	4.6	1.8	0.2										10.3	6th
7th					0.1	0.8	4.1	5.2	2.2	0.2	0.0										12.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.9	5.1	5.9	2.2	0.2	0.0											15.6	8th
9th		0.0	1.0	3.6	6.3	5.0	2.0	0.2	0.0												18.2	9th
10th	1.2	4.0	6.2	6.1	3.5	1.3	0.0	0.0													22.3	10th

Total	1.2	4.0	7.3	9.9	11.8	12.3	12.6	11.0	9.6	7.0	5.0	3.6	2.2	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.0				Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	99.7%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	83.7%	0.3		0.2	0.0	0.0
14-4	50.4%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0
13-5	26.9%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	5.9%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.3%	0.0					0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.3%	1.3		0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%																							0.0
16-2	0.2%																							0.2
15-3	0.3%																							0.3
14-4	0.8%																							0.8
13-5	1.2%																							1.2
12-6	2.2%																							2.2
11-7	3.6%																							3.6
10-8	5.0%																							5.0
9-9	7.0%																							7.0
8-10	9.6%																							9.6
7-11	11.0%																							11.0
6-12	12.6%																							12.6
5-13	12.3%																							12.3
4-14	11.8%																							11.8
3-15	9.9%																							9.9
2-16	7.3%																							7.3
1-17	4.0%																							4.0
0-18	1.2%																							1.2

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0																		100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%