IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.7	#128
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.3	#147
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.1	#130

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.5	#124

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	36.7%	43.3%	29.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	1.0%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.7	13.4	14.3

.500 or above	90.8%	96.2%	84.7%
.500 or above in Conference	94.0%	96.4%	91.3%
Conference Champion	40.6%	47.7%	32.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.1%	0.6%

First Four	2.9%	2.3%	3.5%
First Round	35.5%	42.2%	27.8%
Second Round	5.7%	8.1%	3.1%
Sweet Sixteen	1.7%	2.5%	0.9%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 0.9	0.1 - 0.9
Quad 1b	0.2 - 0.7	0.3 - 1.6
Quad 2	0.6 - 1.2	0.8 - 2.7
Quad 3	4.3 - 3.3	5.1 - 6.0
Quad 4	15.0 - 2.9	20.1 - 8.9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	186	@ Northern Illinois	W	74-70	53%
Nov 16, 2018	294	UNC Asheville	W	77-67	89%
Nov 17, 2018	291	Manhattan	W	73-63	88%
Nov 18, 2018	221	Coastal Carolina	W	74-68	79%
Nov 24, 2018	55	@ Central Florida	L	63-69	20%
Nov 27, 2018	224	@ Morehead St.	W	75-69	62%
Nov 30, 2018	214	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	74-68	77%
Dec 04, 2018	36	@ Cincinnati	L	62-70	16%
Dec 08, 2018	273	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	78-69	68%
Dec 16, 2018	170	Miami (OH)	W	71-68	70%
Dec 20, 2018	186	Northern Illinois	W	74-70	71%
Dec 28, 2018	275	IUPUI	W	73-64	84%
Dec 30, 2018	181	Illinois-Chicago	W	77-73	71%
Jan 03, 2019	245	@ Oakland	W	77-70	65%
Jan 05, 2019	336	@ Detroit Mercy	W	86-71	84%
Jan 11, 2019	138	Wright St.	W	70-69	62%
Jan 17, 2019	281	@ Cleveland St.	W	75-66	69%
Jan 19, 2019	329	@ Youngstown St.	W	83-69	82%
Jan 24, 2019	235	Green Bay	W	80-73	80%
Jan 26, 2019	261	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	72-64	83%
Feb 01, 2019	275	@ IUPUI	W	73-64	68%
Feb 03, 2019	181	@ Illinois-Chicago	W	77-73	52%
Feb 07, 2019	336	Detroit Mercy	W	86-71	93%
Feb 09, 2019	245	Oakland	W	77-70	81%
Feb 15, 2019	138	@ Wright St.	W	70-69	42%
Feb 21, 2019	329	Youngstown St.	W	83-69	92%
Feb 23, 2019	281	Cleveland St.	W	75-66	83%
Feb 28, 2019	261	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	72-64	67%
Mar 02, 2019	235	@ Green Bay	W	80-73	62%
Projected Record						20.1 - 8.9	13.2 - 4.8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	2.2	6.1	10.5	11.0	7.1	3.3		40.6	1st
2nd											0.1	0.7	3.9	7.1	6.6	3.7	0.7				22.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	1.0	3.9	5.4	3.4	0.9	0.1					14.7	3rd
4th									0.0	0.8	3.0	3.7	1.3	0.3							9.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.5	1.9	2.1	0.7	0.0								5.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.0	0.5	1.4	1.3	0.3	0.0									3.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0										2.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1												1.0	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.2	10th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.6	2.7	4.2	6.6	9.2	11.1	13.0	13.6	14.3	11.7	7.1	3.3			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.3		3.3
17-1	100.0%	7.1		6.8	0.2
16-2	93.7%	11.0		9.4	1.5	0.0
15-3	73.6%	10.5		7.2	3.1	0.2
14-4	45.2%	6.1		3.1	2.5	0.6	0.0
13-5	17.1%	2.2		0.7	1.1	0.4	0.1
12-6	3.5%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	40.6%	40.6		30.5	8.5	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.3%		88.4%	84.1%	4.4%	10.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0		0.4		27.4%
17-1	7.1%		76.6%	74.5%	2.1%	12.5						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.3	1.9	1.0	0.3	0.0	1.7		8.3%
16-2	11.7%		63.7%	63.4%	0.3%	13.3										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.5	2.5	2.4	0.8	0.1	4.2		0.8%
15-3	14.3%		48.4%	48.2%	0.2%	14.0												0.0	0.6	1.6	2.4	1.8	0.5	7.4		0.4%
14-4	13.6%		38.0%	38.0%		14.5													0.1	0.6	1.7	2.0	0.7	8.4
13-5	13.0%		28.6%	28.6%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.0	9.3
12-6	11.1%		22.8%	22.8%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	1.2	8.6
11-7	9.2%		14.9%	14.9%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.8
10-8	6.6%		12.6%	12.6%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.7	5.8
9-9	4.2%		5.5%	5.5%		15.9																0.0	0.2	3.9
8-10	2.7%		7.0%	7.0%		15.9																0.0	0.2	2.5
7-11	1.6%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
6-12	1.0%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
5-13	0.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
4-14	0.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		36.7%	36.4%	0.4%	13.7			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	1.3	4.2	7.4	9.1	7.9	5.4	63.3		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	99.8%	5.4		0.2	8.1	14.6	22.5	46.7	1.0		6.7