Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#104
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#265
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 37.5% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 19.4% 3.7%
Average Seed 11.5 10.0 11.7
.500 or above 70.7% 89.3% 69.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 83.5% 67.5%
Conference Champion 14.4% 28.7% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 1.3% 5.1%
First Four2.2% 6.2% 2.0%
First Round14.7% 34.4% 13.5%
Second Round4.6% 14.5% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 5.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 2.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.70.2 - 1.7
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.20.6 - 2.9
Quad 21.8 - 3.22.3 - 6.1
Quad 36.5 - 5.08.8 - 11.1
Quad 49.2 - 1.818.1 - 12.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 3   @ Kentucky L 65-79 6%    
  Nov 12, 2018 65   Buffalo L 74-78 46%    
  Nov 17, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-60 95%    
  Nov 19, 2018 305   Howard W 80-68 92%    
  Nov 22, 2018 154   Massachusetts W 71-67 62%    
  Nov 23, 2018 98   Tulsa L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 27, 2018 180   @ Colorado St. W 74-69 57%    
  Dec 01, 2018 320   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-64 83%    
  Dec 05, 2018 71   Saint Louis L 64-67 49%    
  Dec 08, 2018 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 79-66 80%    
  Dec 12, 2018 151   Murray St. W 70-67 71%    
  Dec 15, 2018 65   @ Buffalo L 74-78 28%    
  Dec 22, 2018 194   Winthrop W 77-71 78%    
  Jan 02, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 70-65 76%    
  Jan 05, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa W 64-63 43%    
  Jan 08, 2019 202   @ Drake W 73-67 61%    
  Jan 12, 2019 120   Valparaiso W 70-69 63%    
  Jan 15, 2019 75   @ Illinois St. L 70-73 32%    
  Jan 20, 2019 117   Bradley W 67-66 62%    
  Jan 23, 2019 116   Northern Iowa W 64-63 62%    
  Jan 27, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-69 29%    
  Jan 30, 2019 161   Indiana St. W 72-68 71%    
  Feb 02, 2019 117   @ Bradley W 67-66 42%    
  Feb 06, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 70-65 58%    
  Feb 09, 2019 196   Evansville W 67-61 78%    
  Feb 12, 2019 202   Drake W 73-67 78%    
  Feb 16, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. W 72-68 53%    
  Feb 20, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso W 70-69 43%    
  Feb 24, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 65-69 47%    
  Feb 27, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 67-61 61%    
  Mar 02, 2019 75   Illinois St. L 70-73 51%    
Projected Record 18.1 - 12.9 10.1 - 7.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.5 3.6 2.6 1.4 0.3 14.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.9 2.9 1.0 0.1 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.9 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 5.4 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.1 5.8 7.6 9.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 10.5 9.0 6.7 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.6    2.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 78.9% 3.6    2.8 0.7 0.0
14-4 52.0% 3.5    1.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 25.5% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 9.2 3.9 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 89.9% 52.9% 37.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.5%
17-1 1.4% 79.0% 41.2% 37.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 64.3%
16-2 2.8% 70.6% 45.2% 25.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 46.3%
15-3 4.5% 57.2% 33.5% 23.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 35.6%
14-4 6.7% 37.7% 23.7% 14.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 18.3%
13-5 9.0% 26.0% 21.1% 4.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.7 6.2%
12-6 10.5% 15.4% 13.6% 1.7% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.9 2.0%
11-7 11.5% 10.0% 9.8% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.2%
10-8 11.1% 8.7% 8.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.1%
9-9 10.7% 5.3% 5.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.1
8-10 9.5% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.1
7-11 7.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.5
6-12 5.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
5-13 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.6% 11.7% 4.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.8 3.7 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 84.4 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.3 6.5 3.2