IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
America East
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.6	#222
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#161
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.6	#294

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.0	#134

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.0%	14.3%	7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.6	15.1

.500 or above	53.2%	71.1%	42.8%
.500 or above in Conference	67.7%	78.0%	61.7%
Conference Champion	12.7%	17.5%	9.8%
Last Place in Conference	5.6%	2.8%	7.2%

First Four	2.0%	1.9%	2.0%
First Round	9.0%	13.2%	6.6%
Second Round	0.6%	1.1%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.4	0.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b	0.1 - 0.8	0.1 - 1.2
Quad 2	0.4 - 2.3	0.5 - 3.5
Quad 3	2.5 - 5.2	3.0 - 8.6
Quad 4	11.9 - 6.5	14.8 - 15.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	208	@ George Washington	L	66-67	37%
Nov 09, 2018	61	@ South Carolina	L	62-74	8%
Nov 16, 2018	206	Holy Cross	L	63-64	47%
Nov 17, 2018	277	Norfolk St.	W	71-68	59%
Nov 24, 2018	103	@ Rhode Island	L	64-72	17%
Nov 27, 2018	277	@ Norfolk St.	W	71-68	48%
Dec 01, 2018	238	Quinnipiac	W	70-69	64%
Dec 05, 2018	291	@ Manhattan	W	67-63	51%
Dec 08, 2018	207	@ Brown	L	73-74	37%
Dec 12, 2018	225	LIU Brooklyn	W	74-73	60%
Dec 16, 2018	239	Delaware	W	67-66	62%
Dec 19, 2018	156	Hofstra	L	71-75	45%
Dec 22, 2018	238	@ Quinnipiac	W	70-69	42%
Dec 29, 2018	116	@ Northern Iowa	L	59-66	20%
Jan 05, 2019	306	@ Umass Lowell	W	77-72	56%
Jan 09, 2019	269	Binghamton	W	67-65	68%
Jan 12, 2019	316	New Hampshire	W	68-62	76%
Jan 19, 2019	327	@ Maine	W	74-66	65%
Jan 23, 2019	278	@ Albany	W	68-65	48%
Jan 26, 2019	124	Vermont	L	63-69	39%
Jan 30, 2019	214	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	68-69	39%
Feb 02, 2019	193	Hartford	L	68-70	54%
Feb 06, 2019	269	@ Binghamton	W	67-65	48%
Feb 09, 2019	306	Umass Lowell	W	77-72	73%
Feb 16, 2019	316	@ New Hampshire	W	68-62	59%
Feb 21, 2019	278	Albany	W	68-65	67%
Feb 23, 2019	327	Maine	W	74-66	80%
Feb 27, 2019	214	Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	68-69	59%
Mar 02, 2019	124	@ Vermont	L	63-69	22%
Mar 05, 2019	193	@ Hartford	L	68-70	34%
Projected Record						14.8 - 15.2	8.9 - 7.1

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected America East Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	1.2	2.9	3.8	3.0	1.2	0.3		12.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.6	2.9	6.1	5.2	2.2	0.4				17.5	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.9	4.1	6.7	3.7	0.7	0.0					16.3	3rd
4th							0.1	0.8	4.6	6.0	2.4	0.2	0.0						14.0	4th
5th						0.0	0.8	4.8	5.0	1.8	0.2								12.5	5th
6th					0.1	0.9	4.0	4.4	1.2	0.0									10.6	6th
7th				0.2	0.9	2.7	3.0	0.7	0.0										7.6	7th
8th		0.0	0.3	1.0	2.2	1.6	0.3	0.0											5.4	8th
9th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0												3.4	9th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.3	3.9	5.5	8.3	10.7	11.7	12.5	12.3	11.3	8.8	6.0	3.5	1.2	0.3			Total

America East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
15-1	100.0%	1.2		1.2	0.0
14-2	87.5%	3.0		2.5	0.5	0.0
13-3	63.0%	3.8		2.3	1.4	0.1
12-4	33.3%	2.9		1.0	1.4	0.5	0.1
11-5	10.7%	1.2		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0		0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	12.7%	12.7		7.6	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.3%		61.3%	57.1%	4.1%	11.4						0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.1		9.6%
15-1	1.2%		57.5%	55.1%	2.4%	13.6										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.5		5.4%
14-2	3.5%		37.2%	36.4%	0.8%	14.1											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	2.2		1.2%
13-3	6.0%		29.7%	29.7%		14.5													0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.3	4.2
12-4	8.8%		20.5%	20.5%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	7.0
11-5	11.3%		14.9%	14.9%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	9.6
10-6	12.3%		9.2%	9.2%		15.8														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	11.2
9-7	12.5%		5.6%	5.6%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	11.8
8-8	11.7%		3.4%	3.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.4	11.3
7-9	10.7%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.5
6-10	8.3%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.2
5-11	5.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
4-12	3.9%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
3-13	2.3%																							2.3
2-14	1.2%																							1.2
1-15	0.4%																							0.4
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		10.0%	10.0%	0.1%	14.9						0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	2.9	3.9	90.0		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%