Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#291
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.1% 8.2% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 17.4% 17.6% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 36.2% 36.4% 8.8%
Top 6 Seed 52.1% 52.4% 18.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.4% 76.8% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.7% 73.2% 35.4%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.5
.500 or above 88.5% 88.8% 55.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 73.9% 40.7%
Conference Champion 16.6% 16.8% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 4.1% 13.5%
First Four2.0% 2.0% 1.1%
First Round75.6% 76.0% 37.1%
Second Round57.0% 57.3% 22.2%
Sweet Sixteen32.2% 32.4% 8.7%
Elite Eight16.9% 17.0% 3.0%
Final Four8.4% 8.5% 1.0%
Championship Game4.1% 4.1% 0.1%
National Champion1.9% 1.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 212 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 45 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 284   Central Arkansas W 88-63 99%    
  Nov 08, 2019 44   Washington W 70-66 67%    
  Nov 15, 2019 156   Texas St. W 75-57 95%    
  Nov 21, 2019 217   Ohio W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 03, 2019 350   Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-32 99.8%   
  Dec 07, 2019 31   Arizona W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 10, 2019 56   Butler W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 18, 2019 258   Tennessee Martin W 84-64 96%    
  Dec 30, 2019 303   Jackson St. W 78-52 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 24   Texas W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 07, 2020 13   @ Texas Tech L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 11, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 70-78 26%    
  Jan 15, 2020 35   Iowa St. W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 18, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma St. W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 20, 2020 38   Oklahoma W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 25, 2020 7   @ Florida L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 29, 2020 35   @ Iowa St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 01, 2020 68   TCU W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 03, 2020 50   @ Kansas St. W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 08, 2020 49   Oklahoma St. W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 10, 2020 24   @ Texas L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 15, 2020 46   West Virginia W 78-70 73%    
  Feb 18, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 22, 2020 4   Kansas L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 25, 2020 50   Kansas St. W 67-59 75%    
  Feb 29, 2020 68   @ TCU W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 02, 2020 13   Texas Tech W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 46   @ West Virginia W 75-73 55%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.0 4.7 3.3 1.6 0.4 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 5.7 3.8 1.3 0.3 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 5.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.1 4.9 6.4 8.2 9.8 11.4 11.5 11.2 9.9 8.1 6.0 3.6 1.6 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 92.5% 3.3    2.8 0.6
15-3 77.8% 4.7    3.4 1.3 0.0
14-4 48.6% 4.0    2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.7% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 5.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 10.9 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 64.1% 35.9% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.6% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.0% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.9 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.1% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.6 1.5 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.9% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 3.6 0.6 1.7 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.2% 99.6% 15.2% 84.4% 4.6 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-7 11.5% 98.5% 12.1% 86.3% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.2%
10-8 11.4% 94.5% 6.7% 87.9% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 94.1%
9-9 9.8% 81.2% 5.0% 76.3% 8.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 80.2%
8-10 8.2% 48.4% 2.2% 46.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 47.2%
7-11 6.4% 20.7% 1.9% 18.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 19.2%
6-12 4.9% 4.7% 0.6% 4.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7 4.1%
5-13 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0%
4-14 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.3%
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.4% 13.6% 62.9% 5.1 8.1 9.3 9.8 8.9 8.4 7.5 7.1 5.9 4.6 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 23.6 72.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0