Preseason Rankings
Washington
Pac-12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#266
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 2.6% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 6.4% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 9.3% 16.8% 5.6%
Top 6 Seed 17.2% 28.8% 11.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.9% 66.3% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.5% 59.1% 34.9%
Average Seed 7.7 7.0 8.2
.500 or above 88.4% 96.3% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.8% 87.7% 75.9%
Conference Champion 17.5% 24.3% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four7.2% 7.3% 7.2%
First Round46.3% 62.6% 38.1%
Second Round27.3% 39.3% 21.3%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 17.5% 8.3%
Elite Eight4.7% 7.4% 3.3%
Final Four1.8% 2.9% 1.3%
Championship Game0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 37 - 214 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 15   Baylor L 66-70 33%    
  Nov 12, 2019 287   Mount St. Mary's W 78-58 97%    
  Nov 16, 2019 30   Tennessee L 69-71 43%    
  Nov 19, 2019 333   Maine W 77-52 99%    
  Nov 22, 2019 198   Montana W 76-60 92%    
  Nov 24, 2019 164   San Diego W 73-60 88%    
  Dec 02, 2019 165   South Dakota W 75-61 88%    
  Dec 04, 2019 192   Eastern Washington W 77-62 91%    
  Dec 08, 2019 8   Gonzaga L 72-76 37%    
  Dec 17, 2019 168   Seattle W 75-61 88%    
  Dec 22, 2019 120   Ball St. W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 02, 2020 82   UCLA W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 05, 2020 64   USC W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 09, 2020 113   @ Stanford W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 166   @ California W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 16, 2020 74   Oregon St. W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 18, 2020 16   Oregon L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 23, 2020 110   @ Utah W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 25, 2020 40   @ Colorado L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 30, 2020 31   Arizona W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 01, 2020 65   Arizona St. W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 09, 2020 157   @ Washington St. W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 13, 2020 64   @ USC L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 15, 2020 82   @ UCLA W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 20, 2020 113   Stanford W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 22, 2020 166   California W 75-61 86%    
  Feb 28, 2020 157   Washington St. W 80-67 85%    
  Mar 05, 2020 65   @ Arizona St. L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 07, 2020 31   @ Arizona L 66-71 35%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 5.2 4.3 2.4 0.6 17.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 4.9 2.3 0.6 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.2 7.0 9.1 10.5 11.4 12.1 11.6 9.5 7.6 4.9 2.5 0.6 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.3% 2.4    2.2 0.2
16-2 88.1% 4.3    3.3 1.0 0.0
15-3 68.4% 5.2    3.1 1.9 0.2
14-4 35.1% 3.3    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
13-5 11.2% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 10.8 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 55.3% 44.7% 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.5% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 2.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.9% 99.7% 33.5% 66.2% 4.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-3 7.6% 98.0% 27.9% 70.1% 5.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.2%
14-4 9.5% 92.4% 23.6% 68.8% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 90.0%
13-5 11.6% 81.6% 18.9% 62.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.1 77.3%
12-6 12.1% 61.8% 10.2% 51.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.6 57.4%
11-7 11.4% 43.7% 9.3% 34.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 6.4 38.0%
10-8 10.5% 24.4% 4.8% 19.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.9 20.6%
9-9 9.1% 9.3% 2.6% 6.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.3 6.8%
8-10 7.0% 3.1% 1.3% 1.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 1.9%
7-11 5.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.1%
6-12 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
5-13 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.9% 12.9% 37.0% 7.7 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.3 7.9 3.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 50.1 42.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 60.2 33.6 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 7.7 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 36.7 32.7 30.6