IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
California
Pac-12
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.2	#166
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.8	#228
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.2	#185

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#164

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.4%	3.9%	1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.0%	3.4%	0.8%
Average Seed	10.2	10.2	10.3

.500 or above	15.0%	22.9%	8.0%
.500 or above in Conference	12.0%	16.2%	8.3%
Conference Champion	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	36.7%	30.0%	42.7%

First Four	0.8%	1.4%	0.3%
First Round	2.0%	3.1%	0.9%
Second Round	0.7%	1.1%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 4	0 - 4
Quad 1b	0 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 2	2 - 7	3 - 15
Quad 3	4 - 5	7 - 19
Quad 4	4 - 1	11 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	117	Pepperdine	L	75-76	47%
Nov 12, 2019	146	UNLV	W	72-70	57%
Nov 15, 2019	228	California Baptist	W	76-70	73%
Nov 18, 2019	277	Prairie View	W	78-69	81%
Nov 21, 2019	3	Duke	L	66-86	4%
Nov 26, 2019	266	UC Davis	W	71-62	77%
Dec 04, 2019	111	@ San Francisco	L	67-74	28%
Dec 07, 2019	128	@ Santa Clara	L	66-71	33%
Dec 11, 2019	118	Fresno St.	L	69-70	49%
Dec 14, 2019	19	St. Mary's	L	61-72	18%
Dec 21, 2019	101	Boston College	L	68-72	35%
Dec 29, 2019	69	Harvard	L	68-73	33%
Jan 02, 2020	113	@ Stanford	L	68-75	28%
Jan 09, 2020	157	Washington St.	W	77-74	58%
Jan 11, 2020	44	Washington	L	64-72	26%
Jan 16, 2020	64	@ USC	L	68-80	16%
Jan 19, 2020	82	@ UCLA	L	72-82	21%
Jan 26, 2020	113	Stanford	L	71-72	47%
Jan 30, 2020	16	Oregon	L	60-71	18%
Feb 01, 2020	74	Oregon St.	L	67-71	37%
Feb 06, 2020	40	@ Colorado	L	63-77	12%
Feb 08, 2020	110	@ Utah	L	68-75	28%
Feb 13, 2020	31	Arizona	L	66-75	22%
Feb 16, 2020	65	Arizona St.	L	73-78	33%
Feb 19, 2020	157	@ Washington St.	L	74-77	39%
Feb 22, 2020	44	@ Washington	L	61-75	14%
Feb 27, 2020	40	Colorado	L	66-74	25%
Feb 29, 2020	110	Utah	L	71-72	47%
Mar 05, 2020	16	@ Oregon	L	57-74	8%
Mar 07, 2020	74	@ Oregon St.	L	64-74	20%
Projected Record						10 - 20	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1						1.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.1							2.1	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.2	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.0							3.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.5	2.1	0.8	0.0									4.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.6	2.9	1.2	0.1	0.0									6.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.3	3.8	1.9	0.2	0.0										8.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	2.8	5.0	2.6	0.4	0.0											11.3	9th
10th			0.0	1.0	4.1	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.0												15.2	10th
11th		0.3	2.4	6.5	6.9	3.4	0.7	0.0													20.3	11th
12th	2.7	6.6	8.4	6.0	2.3	0.3	0.0														26.3	12th

Total	2.7	6.9	10.8	13.5	13.9	13.1	11.5	8.8	6.9	4.9	3.2	1.9	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-3	78.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0
14-4	38.4%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0
13-5	10.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0								0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%									0.0			0.0
16-2	0.0%		100.0%	35.9%	64.1%	5.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0										100.0%
15-3	0.1%		100.0%	20.8%	79.2%	6.7			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
14-4	0.3%		84.7%	9.8%	74.8%	8.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		83.0%
13-5	0.6%		70.8%	6.9%	63.9%	9.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1					0.2		68.7%
12-6	1.0%		46.3%	8.9%	37.4%	10.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.6		41.1%
11-7	1.9%		24.8%	3.4%	21.4%	10.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.5		22.2%
10-8	3.2%		12.7%	1.4%	11.3%	11.1								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2					2.8		11.5%
9-9	4.9%		3.9%	0.9%	3.0%	11.2										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				4.7		3.0%
8-10	6.9%		1.4%	1.0%	0.4%	12.1											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			6.8		0.4%
7-11	8.8%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	11.9												0.0	0.0	0.0				8.8		0.0%
6-12	11.5%		0.1%	0.1%		12.9													0.0	0.0	0.0			11.5
5-13	13.1%		0.1%	0.1%		12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0				13.0
4-14	13.9%		0.0%	0.0%		13.7													0.0		0.0	0.0		13.9
3-15	13.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.5
2-16	10.8%																							10.8
1-17	6.9%																							6.9
0-18	2.7%																							2.7

Total	100%		2.4%	0.4%	2.0%	10.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	97.6		2.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%