Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#320
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 4.1% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 9.6% 10.0% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 23.1% 23.8% 6.5%
Top 6 Seed 37.7% 38.6% 14.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.9% 64.0% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.4% 60.5% 34.7%
Average Seed 5.8 5.7 7.2
.500 or above 78.8% 80.0% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 58.3% 59.1% 38.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.4% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 7.7% 18.4%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 2.4%
First Round61.8% 62.9% 35.6%
Second Round42.5% 43.4% 21.5%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 22.0% 8.2%
Elite Eight9.9% 10.2% 2.8%
Final Four4.4% 4.5% 1.4%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.6%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 33 - 014 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 214   Northern Colorado W 76-57 96%    
  Nov 09, 2019 12   @ Purdue L 65-71 28%    
  Nov 12, 2019 228   California Baptist W 80-61 96%    
  Nov 15, 2019 277   Prairie View W 82-60 98%    
  Nov 21, 2019 54   Georgetown W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 30, 2019 316   McNeese St. W 80-55 99%    
  Dec 03, 2019 140   UAB W 73-58 90%    
  Dec 08, 2019 61   Texas A&M W 70-66 63%    
  Dec 14, 2019 154   Central Michigan W 82-67 91%    
  Dec 21, 2019 36   @ Providence L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 30, 2019 308   High Point W 74-50 98%    
  Jan 04, 2020 15   @ Baylor L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 08, 2020 38   Oklahoma W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 11, 2020 50   Kansas St. W 64-58 69%    
  Jan 15, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 18, 2020 4   Kansas L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 20, 2020 46   @ West Virginia L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 20   LSU W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 29, 2020 68   @ TCU W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 01, 2020 35   Iowa St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 03, 2020 4   @ Kansas L 67-77 21%    
  Feb 08, 2020 13   Texas Tech L 65-66 50%    
  Feb 10, 2020 15   Baylor W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 15, 2020 35   @ Iowa St. L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 19, 2020 68   TCU W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 22, 2020 50   @ Kansas St. L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 24, 2020 46   West Virginia W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 13   @ Texas Tech L 62-68 31%    
  Mar 03, 2020 38   @ Oklahoma L 68-70 45%    
  Mar 07, 2020 49   Oklahoma St. W 70-64 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.4 3.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.3 0.2 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.0 8.0 9.3 10.7 11.2 10.8 10.1 8.9 6.7 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 91.6% 1.5    1.3 0.2
15-3 78.7% 2.5    1.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 48.7% 2.5    1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.3% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.1% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.6 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.7% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 3.6 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.9% 99.6% 14.3% 85.3% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 10.1% 98.4% 8.2% 90.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.2%
10-8 10.8% 93.2% 6.9% 86.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.7%
9-9 11.2% 78.0% 5.3% 72.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 76.7%
8-10 10.7% 50.4% 2.4% 48.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.3 49.2%
7-11 9.3% 22.8% 1.3% 21.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 21.8%
6-12 8.0% 6.0% 0.6% 5.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 5.4%
5-13 6.0% 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 1.1%
4-14 3.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.2%
3-15 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 62.9% 8.6% 54.3% 5.8 3.9 5.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.6 7.0 6.1 4.8 3.8 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1 59.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0